stocks, loads, Kraken, (data/=hope)16 Nov 2018 07:00
Hi Pelle, MO, E121, Kraken, romaron and Squif,
Pelle: Once again many thanks for your detailed production forecasts. They show there will be some improvement in H2, but onlu because in H1 Kraken's figure were very poor for a long period.
Your forecasts are based on data, rather than on hope. Using hope in forecasting is a way to assure that your forecasts are wrong... Yet, some people insist on its repeated use.
MO: I am sticking to the usual 500k figure for the last load, until you report on the data after the STS transfer. How often was the final figure for a load 575k?
E121: I do not dispute any of the facts that you stated on the relative performance of PMO versus ENQ. My only comment was that PMO has now a very successful project (Catcher) and they have brought their debt down by a reasonable amount. Apparently, their performance was not good enough for Mr. Market, w/ production from elsewhere lower than anticipated, and not enough debt reduction. It is clear Mr. Market expects these leveraged plays to deliver big time. (I do not think that the debt reduction figure you provided will be enough to make Mr. Market happy. The end of year net debt has to come below for Mr. Market to like it: net debt has to be reduced by a higher % than that PMO has set for its debt reduction this year, which Mr. Market did not like.)
I do not have the time now for a long post, but the poo at any price within this past year's levels ( 52 WEEK RANGE: 61.08 - 86.74, data from FT for ICE Brent) decides whether the PIs have a chance of tripling their money or not. Execution decides the company converts that chance in case the poo is at the top of the range or instead results in the company getting in trouble further and further.
Kraken: People are focusing on whichever US stocks data they like. There is oil stranded in lots of places in the US (that has resulted in crazy price differentials), and so no wonder stocks have been going up. I prefer OECD stocks. I suggest you read about low levels of water in the main rivers in Central Europe and the effects of that:
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/111518-switzerland-releases-additional-diesel-gasoline-reserves-on-low-rhine-water-levels
At any rate, production is still too high despite all these mitigating effects. As I wrote a few days, the Poo has entered a new regime driven by the political interests of the main players (US, Russia, SA and neighbors), and I expect it not to go up to previous levels until 2019 H2.
romaron: What is going with Kraken is the $1B question. It would be good to know. Based on evidence that the gap b/w loads is not improving (i doubt it will ever be 10 days or less, even with DC4 online) one can only conclude that the project is not a success but also not a complete failure, but something in between. (It would be good to know exactly what is wrong, The info you relayed is very helpful).
Squif: I am losing patience w ENQ. No char
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