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With the amount of FCF able to be dedicated to buybacks this year, 150-160 would be a dream if they can find enough sellers. Just running the numbers properly this morning and they came out at a potential $1.3bn in buybacks this year with what I would consider pretty middle of the road numbers. That's enough to fully buyout BASF at current prices, let alone 160. I might make a new thread on it later if I have time.

you people are completely delusional, iran has already won this war. they won it the second they decided to use their greatest weapon and close the soh. there's a reason no us administration has attacked iran since the '79 revolution despite wanting to and now they're forced into a decison: capitulate to iran's demands and make huge concessions in negotiations, giving iran everything they want like sanctions relief. or they can launch a full scale invasion and suffer casualties worse than vietnam at a mult-trillion dollar cost.

no one was surprised except those that know **** all about iran, including the crayon-munchers in the white house which is how they find themselves in a double-bind.

The most realistic numbers I have is £820m distributed between buybacks and dividend, for the full year so 50% in Sept. This is based on the lower 45% of FCF. There will also be significant debt reduction in the $1.5bn range.

It all gets quite complicated as buybacks reduce outstanding shares, but if we were to guess 50% buybacks/50% dividend we'd be looking at 15p/15p dividend for each half year and an 11% reduction in outstanding shares if my maths is correct. I'm not sure what the debt would be reduced to in this scenario, maybe $5bn or a bit above.

@dan222 oil trades in a global market and the main consequence of losing 10-15% global oil is a price shock and demand destruction from the poorest countries. this doesn't benefit the us in the slightest as they're paying the same price as everyone else and having the global economy **** the bed is bad for everyone and ****stan/sri lanka aren't exactly direct competitors to the us economy. in fact it is worse for the us given the massive ai spending occurring using debt which only makes sense in a booming economy.

Make no mistake, Iran has all the power already which is why no president has attacked them in 50 years. Iran doesn't care about the blockade as they're not entirely reliant on SoH oil exports which are more like a bonus. The reality is the US lost the second they attacked and Iran decided it was enough to warrant closing SoH.

The only way the US can come out of this without giving away massive concessions (think $300bn cash and lifting sanctions which would be an unprecedented capitulation) is a full scale invasion with boots on the ground which they don't have the political will for. It's only a matter of time until Trump folds like a red hot mars bar unless Iran inextricably gives up all their leverage to sign an unfavourable deal. The US doesn't have the cards unless they want 2 million boots on the ground and Vietnam levels of bodybags.

i know what you mean, i went all in at 290 when this iran situation kicked off, but didn't like the way things were going so exited at 303 after the latest dividend. i'm used to trading us stock and in comparison the ftse swings are incredibly depressing. i'm still very bullish on the fundementals and it's very confusing why the sp is so low given the company is making fcf hand over fist and is due a bumper earnings and dividend.

i'm currently looking for another entry point, either if it consolidates here around 260 or drops to 241 (i can't see it going lower tbh). a quick resolution and peacedeal in iran would negatively effect sp but make a fantastic entry point as the global o&g market is a mess no matter what at this point and will take ages to get un****ed. the forward curves aren't going away and infact could even go higher on any resolution due to the obvious market manipulation by world governments to keep prices low. when you combine that with long term damage to me producrtion, oil reserves needing to be refilled and european gas prices this coming winter with reserves needing to be stocked soon, elevated profits are baked in for atleast another year to 18 months.

as a minimum i can see 65p/share split between dividends and buybacks for this year which will be apparent by next earnings while the long term fundementals show a positive outlook irrespective of the global events this year.

All I can say for sure is the situastion in the ME is really bad and the media and markets are massively downplaying it compared to oil traders and those in the industry.

I agree with @MiHK 's numbers, $2.5-3.5bn is a reasonable estimate given a medium scenario of some combination of high O&G prices until a recession puts a dampener on them, or a medium term (3 weeks -2 months) reopening of the Strait.

There however is an outsized possibility of significantly better numbers with physical oil already at $141 and the potential for a boots on the ground scenario where the oil still isn't flowing come december, or alternatively significantly more long term damage to infrastructure so even with the strait opening prices stay elevated for some time with only a couple of mmbpd shortfall. It's really uncertain what the market can bare in terms of demand destruction as $147 in 2008 was tolerated until the GFC and inflation since of 50% means even a couple of months of $200 oil would really boost FCF for the year.

In terms of Gas, unlike oil, prices don't really rise gradually but rather stay muted ($18 mscf) until they don't, then spike massively when the last ships arrive from the gulf and governments need to start filling their reserves for winter. Then we could see a spike like 2022 where TTF reached the equivalent of $122 mscf and averaged $44 mscf for the entire year. HBR's FCF is much more sensitive to gas than oil with these extremes in price possible.

The entire system is rather complex with demand destruction coming mainly from the poorest countries now which didn't use to buy as much in 2008, the logistics of physically moving O&G around the world and refinery types not easily supporting different oil types and exactly how the economy will mitigate the situation as there's always unforseen economic efficiencies implemented. Anything from $1.8bn-$7.5bn FCF is possible this year which is still exceptionally good at the lower end so we'll see good numbers no maatter what for 2026.

Https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/dated-brent-oil-price-actual-cargo-highest-level-2008.html

So this is the actual price HBR is selling their oil for today, the futures market is severely broken and not fully capturing the profitability due to the backwardation of a mythical "quick opening" of Hormuz. All the gambling by retail and Trump insiders taking place is also creating massive distortions in the futures market.

Bloomberg also released a chart from S&P Global Platts showing the actual prices that averages to $85 for the first quarter (+$170m FCF) and with it currently trading above $140 bbl if it were to maintain that for all of Q2 that would be another $637.5m FCF alone. Gas prices in europe are as of yet to fully respond to Qatari LNG no longer being available, I guess that won't show up until they have to start refilling storage for winter.

I agree completely with @Yumeria. This was the thesis I bought on. Half year results will show significant earnings which will both raise the share price and provide a massive dividend for september.

Who could even do a block sale? Both BASF and EIG are now under 90 day lockups, which is a good thing. Although the recent 2 have killed all momentum, we would most likely be in the ~350p range now if it weren't for them.

That's only Oil, TTF gas projections were based on $11 mcsf with $150m FCF for every $1 mcsf above that. It's currently sitting around $20 mcsf and has been averaging $19 since March 3rd , so that's another $1.35bn FCF and I expect that to last longer given the 3-5 years some of Ras Laffan's production is offline. The forward projections even go up, with $20 all the way out to Jan27 currently.

@Stupmy yes, the IG price will be the CFD trading price based on June futures. It's most likely an "approximation" based on the data they get from ICE or one of the other major exchanges like NYMEX. They then mess with the spreads a little to make sure they don't lose money as they're effectively an intermediary between you and ICE.

Brent for May delivery is $112 currently, Brent for June is $105. Some of the price exchanges change the monthly prematurely/without saying anything such as Yahoo finance which is very bad.

You can't actually get easy information for a "spot price" of physical delivery, that only comes from S&P Global and they charge an insane amount of money for that data. What eventually happens with most of the paper market is they don't do physical exchange, just at the end of the month they us S&P Globals data of what the "actual price" was and pay that out. It's hard to know what HBR is currently earning, except that it's at a minimum the next monthly futures price.

https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data is the best source, without paying a $20k subscription atleast.

"Iran maintains its position rejecting any type of negotiation before achieving its war objectives," according to a statement quoted by the Sabereen news agency. "Trump’s statement is a retreat from his earlier threats, but the Islamic Republic remains committed to its declared positions. Its position on the Strait of Hormuz has not changed and the passage will remain closed to the aggressors attacking Iran."

Spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian Parliament, Ibrahim Rezaei, claimed: "The battle continues. Another defeat for Satan. Trump and the U.S. have failed again."

23-Mar-26 11:36:15 278.1545 443,663 Sell* 279.00 280.00 1m O

Someone's going to lose alot of money. This'll reverse by the time Iran comes out and says the talks only happened in Trumps head. It's unbeleivablle how easily manipulated the market is by a tweet.

It's the entire market dragging everything down. Out of the entire FTSE350 only 7 stocks are green so far today. All the while the fundementals get better as it's another +$10m FCF for every day where oil and gas are at these levels.

All the ups and downs in oil prices are short term speculation, alot of which wiped people out when it went to $119 then dropped down to $80 Brent. Since then it's been more muted and is following the physical market. It'll just keep ticking up a couple of dollars a day until the Asian refineries finally wake up that the Strait isn't reopening anytime soon. At that point when they start buying for May/June delivery from other regions en masse is when we should see a big move to something resembling Murban/Dubai Platts.

So far they've only bought a few tens of millions of barrels from West Africa/North Atlantic on the hope that this all gets resolved before their buffers run out.

Sekforde, if they really wanted, looking at the forward curves from today/yesterday HBR could hedge the rest of their oil at $90 a bbl until december '27 and TTF gas around $20.60/MSCF until the end of Q1 27 and $14.90/MSCF from Q2-Q4 '27. That's the ability to lock in a guaranteed FCF of $2.5bn each year and assumes maintaining their current hedge positions of $71/$13 respectively throughout that time as well, which is unrealistic.

Overall I'm not too worried about short term price movement as I doubt the market will adequately price it in until we get updates in Q1 operations update in May and August half year results. This would allow for a dividend of around 44p each of the next 2 years at 45% FCF and getting debt down to <$5bn. My calculations exclude the waldorf acquisition. I'm really interested in what decisions they make RE: hedging as the current Iran situation can still escalate alot.

There's definitely a pullback on oilers, I think they're just testing a £3 mark to see if buyers step in. So if that holds over the next 2 hours it creates somewhat of a floor to move higher.