A few other things to work into the calculations...
50% of the "customers" are guarantors.
Any guarantors who paid zero money to Amigo will have zero redress entitlement and therefore no vote
As I understand it guarantors who have paid anything would be due all their payments back but by definition have no balance (they are not borrowers). Those guarantors who can vote have zero financial benefit from a no vote.
I've no idea how many guarantors have had to make payments or how many will bother to vote, but I'm pretty sure 90% of those that do will vote yes.
Any current customers due redress will have been paying back on their loan for over 12 months at 49% apr. If they are due back all the interest they have paid plus 8% then they will likely clear more than half of their remaining balance. Except for the 8% they will be due this whether the vote is yes or no. Many will clear their balance completely either way. However, there can only be a max of 150k people in this situation.
RE: Buy the Rumour, Sell the News31 Mar 2021 14:33
Was it really news? After the FCA rns last week I think passing this hurdle was mostly in the price already.
If everyone believes the vote is a foregone conclusion too then the same may well be true about the next step.
£1 in a months time is absolute gold. The board have 3 years to get to 40p to trigger their LTIP.
If you want to think about the value of this company then look at what trade it might be doing in future rather than what it has done in the past. All we know for sure is that the lending criteria will be much, much stricter. Past lending levels were achieved with practices that will not be allowed in future. For me that will limit the potential in the next couple of years.
The future should be bright, but for me this is not a get rich quick opportunity.
Great, balanced post Vinson and a view I'm broadly in line with. One other pint I have considered is that I believe the judge will need to decide on 30th if the process is fair. Only creditors should be voting on the scheme, i.e. those with a valid claim, yet currently all prior customers are proposed to be given a vote whether they deserve redress or not. Do you think this could need to be revised as well as the redress payment pot?
Well played contrarian. Like me you must have held through some rough times. I'm sure you are gutted not have got out when the price spiked.
Not many on this board will thank you for posting and more will question your motive.
Personally I like to hear honest thoughts from all buyers, sellers and holders.
I'm not sure why anyone would want this board filled only with long term holders who claim they would never sell and don't care about the price, yet are so fixated on this share that they post that opinion multiple times per day.
If you had asked that question a week ago I could have answered as I was in the same boat... overexposed and a uncomfortable at putting that risk in the hands of a judge and ex-customers. I feel a lot more comfortable now and to be honest feel I can assess the pros and cons better from here. Fear and greed was clouding my judgement. If and when I want to get back in it will be at a higher price, but it will be at a lot less than £1 still. Good luck to all holders, especially those underwater at the moment or with all their eggs in this casket
RE: 617k buy at 13.3 just happened at 11.1112 Mar 2021 21:17
Cheers mouse. I'm still in here, just at a more sensible level for me now. I'll still make good money if we get to 50p and genuinely hope we do. However I don't believe we will be there immediately after the vote. I dare say I'll be accused of deramping if I share my full opinion about the next few months on here so if you are genuinely interested in exchanging alternative views then find me on telegram @kopite68 or twitter @kopite681 Allez Allez Allez
RE: 617k buy at 13.3 just happened at 11.1112 Mar 2021 18:03
Hi anon.y.mouse - good question. Basically I held through the rises because I was a bit greedy.
I vaguely had in mind that I might sell half at double my average which would have been 20.6 but we never quite got there, so I have regrets already.
My plan was always to derisk going into the second half of March and the SOA. I thought the last 2 weeks were more or less risk free after the results, with lots of II buying and very little chance of bad news.
Bear in mind that I had the best part of 75% of my bank in this share. For me the risk in the next 2 weeks is greater than I am comfortable with at that level. l
RE: 617k buy at 13.3 just happened at 11.1112 Mar 2021 11:55
LOL that was me. Definitely a sale of 600,351 shares, but of course someone has bought them too :) Good luck to everyone that holds through the SOA process, you deserve all the riches that a positive outcome will bring. I've been overexposed in this share for a long time now so happy to take my stake and a small profit and leave 100k shares to free ride, instead of the big loss I was staring at only a few weeks ago.
I would imagine the value weighting will be based on likely redress owed if the claim is valid; so for borrowers it would be the interest paid and for guarantors it would be all payments. There might be some self-assessment as part of the vote process but they won't be offivially assessing whether claims are valid until after the scheme is approved. Basically if you think you might have a claim your vote will count.
_Traveller you have said what many were thinking but perhaps just use the filter option next time. It is far more effective in achieving the aim of cutting out the drivel and offends less. It is certainly working for me on this thread. Anyone posting more than a couple of times a day really needs to think more and post less.
Vinson and Franky, thank you for your sane and logical posts on this board especially over the last month or so. They have given clarity on what is going on here and courage to keep me in the game. First purchase was August and I've had a 12p average since Sept. Nearly bailed at 7p recently.. now have 10.3p average and mores shares than GJ :) Good luck to all. HOLD
Frankly, you mean if the complainants vote no then Bybrook could benefit by forcing administration? Perhaps... but that's the stated position anyway. I guess that angle just makes it clearer to voters that it really is SOA or administration... so no point voting against in the hope of something better.
My reading is that TR-1 notifications are only used for CFDs that are long, so I am going to stop worrying that this might be a short position.
Allez Allez Allez
Also the RNS looks to me like they have an interest in 19m shares which is 4% of the business, not 7% that some are posting. Give them time though; it wouldn't surprise me to see more of these notifications in the early part of next week.