Member Info for Kooba

At a level matching the highest price paid in the last year ..i dont think either have purchased any in the past year ..CRS bought a lot before and after the trial but not dealt in last year.
So whilst asi is correct that they are not deemed as a concert party but separate entities to the scheme ..an offer could be 2p. No lawyer would touch it especially on a no fee basis. The takeover panel are all over this there are no such angles.

Xproinvestorx
I agree your take there on getting around the irrevocables there could be a way through but we need another bid first ! That bit I'm not so sure about !

ASI..i imagine they have had a lot of incoming and rather than answer individually have collated the q&a as likely individual correspondence overlaps ..so it is also only fair to make all answers available to all shareholders.
To be fair there is nothing different than i expected and much is already fully disclosed.

My only slight surprise in the circumstances is
“The irrevocable commitments do not prevent another offeror making a bid for the Company, nor do they prevent the Board from removing its recommendation for the Acquisition and recommending a superior offer.”

So im not sure how that might work or whether a rival bid is even really probable or possible but it seems the board as a whole could change recommendation if it arose.

The other piece is that c suite are not stay as directors of Hurricane ( initially) but they are being kept on.

Hopefully whilst not being anything that shifting through the releases could have given ..i think this a very useful process for pi’s to better understand what the position is.

Damn my fixed cost estimate is on the high end of expectations i could be a couple of M out over the year..thats a positive to my numbers though but not by much ..all good !

Spot is up but the futures curve is still negative going out to 2025.

https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5430847

Q&As a good idea..perish the thought what abuse will be posted but hopefully folks can get some answers to sensible questions .that are comprehensively covered in the docs if read.

Leave it with you…I’ve got to go and answer the Q&As now!.. ha ha ha yes that is a joke no it is not me using humour to cover up the truth ..no i was not on the grassy knoll.

I’m sure it is weighted to the executives ..but certainly not exactly 30 pieces of silver is it.

On the cash flow front i thought i would give a quick example of why the cashflow is far less than some commentators believe . The main take i have is that fixed costs are at least $10m..foe those that don’t except those figures which certainly are the historic levels and play out over current months cash positions.so using that assumption and taking into account the Bluewater 8% revenue share.
Year end cash $122m with half a load
Offload FEB net OF BW $40M AT $81
Cash position end Feb $140 2 months fixed cost taken off.
Offload end April net BW $40M AT $81 ( HIGHER THAN SPOT)
Cost for march april may $30m
Cash. Position end May est $150m with half a tank
Soon a like for like basis over 5 months the company cash will have gone up by $28m

Going forward production declining as evidenced previous post and costs moving higher per barrel as we are now on a 10 week offload cycle as well as industry cost pressures..rig industrial action is ongoing and wage settlement being struck at 10%.
The fact is the great days of super cash flows are behind us…if there is a huge jump in oil then that would indeed have a positive impact on both cashflow into the company ..or income to the DCUs.

ASI..well the bonus short term is £900k across executives and staff..he and staff gets the bigger bucks (£3.5m from prax) matching their existing incentives only if shareholders get the full 12.5p payout i read. So i suppose the incentive to keep things running and push other acquisitions into Hurricane to boost production means that the c suite are finally aligned to deliver with shareholders.

So as shown yesterday the well would have to produce at 8200bopb to get anywhere near the production estimates made by RT. Indeed the 2022 average production came in towards the top of company estimates at 8464 over the year. Nb we came into 2022 at 9650bopd and left at 7800bopd ..it was fairly steady decline in line with guidance as was 2021. Normally higher end granted.However
2023 Production Guidance

Management's production guidance for the full calendar year 2023 is 5,900 - 7,100 bopd. This assumes FPSO production planned uptime of 96.5% and production from the P6 well alone on artificial lift via ESP. Guidance also includes the impact of an annual maintenance shutdown, anticipated to occur during Q3 2023.
So in January we were producing at 7800 end of Feb 7700.
If we are to believe that production guidance again comes in the top of the range average say 7000 bopd then we will be seeing a significant tail off in production this year ..if i one extrapolates across the year to get to 7000bopd average we would be down to 6200bopd at the year end..and still falling. The best production for this year is already banked
Assuming production actually goes up and stays steady for 14 or even 24 months is really not an argument.

Well good morning campers..it seems some kids were up beyond their bedtimes making mischief ..can only think this is to demonstrate their moral and intellectual superiority. Ha.
I will not be responding to any of sensemans posts…they just show disturbing characteristics and i do not wish to waste my time taking him down adding to his obvious stress.
If only some spent more time actually doing their homework and not googling they might have some facts to support their arguments i think that would be a more constructive use of their time. Just trying to get me to leave the fake empire ( favourite song as it goes) through bullying will not succeed..i hate bullies . But it would seem some can’t even understand basic facts when even walked through so might well focus more back on advfn where it seems most have already worked senseman out.

Some sound advice from asimpleinvestor. But i can assure you i am not Mr Maris and the very idea is fantastical , as if i was i would be breaking every rule of the takeover code and Aim rules to post on a board ,that also will have very little difference to the outcome on proceedings. It is a very funny idea though. It seems the continued if you cant make your arguments stand up attack and discredit the guy who can whilst at the same time constructing greater conspiracy theories to try to get everyone to ignore the facts rules. Nice to see the value of the DCU’s starting to be recognised.

Turning off now..sense is spoiling for another shoeing…too easy can’t be ****d.

ASI ..sense posted this on the other site 10 hours…

“If you today state you are simply a private investor, I am happy to believe you. I was not responsible for your loose tongue yesterday. We all occasionally overview, overstate or over
imply our importance.”

In response to the same stupid stuff I responded
You are such a bore..
“Do you represent any professional organisation or firm; be it oil, finance, investment or any other type, in relation to HUR? Or put another way - is your HUR interest wholly and solely on a personal level as a private investor?
I represent no one as stated I have said this before and you ignore because you are buffoon who has no ability to reason..you get things in your head mostly dumb ****d conspiracies and they become real to you.,,get a bloody grip.

They cannot get 6.6m barrels out economically ..there is a point where production falls below economic limit and they will leave what’s left there. The well could extend past the bang up to date cpr cessation point of August 2025 and if the water cut drops and oil jumps past $100 and if my aunt had….but on current information it is impossible to come up with your numbers..not even close. Folks might not trust the company numbers ..but the facts of where we on in production levels and evidenced costs means an outcome such as 12.5p in 14 months is totally impossible.

A few issues here main one is they are currently producing at a declining rate of 7700 bopd with a rising water cut running likely at best rate under ESP ..your numbers are estimating a steady 8200 bopd to be able to produce that amount of oil in that timeframe so thats not possible. The other is costs. I dont think anyone thinks the all in cost per barrel is $30..its far higher and rising as production falls as much of cost is fixed.My working are that fixed cost is at least $10m a month and rising due to inflationary pressure on workforce costs. You then have a 8% revenue share going to Bluewater that you are not taking off either. Then if there was an early cessation in production we would lose the AM and the deposit but would have significant wind down costs irrespective of the decommissioning that should be covered but no guarantees..decommissioning may have to wait for rigs and weather depending on circumstance..but we would still have central costs during that period. I think saying over 12.5p in 14 months time is pie in the sky and not properly worked at all..it would likely be 7-7.5p net to shareholders on that eventually if oil still around $80..there is obviously variable around Brent. If i thought your estimates were anything like i would be standalone..but they are not imo.

Rodders…We have about 6p now and the company forecasts on a standalone basis to natural cessation aug 2025 that we would eventually get about 8.2p out of well 6 in distributions by 2026 when decommissioned and company wound up. You seem to be saying that if they stopped pumping halfway between now and August 2025 for any reason that there would be more than 12.5p to distribute. Do you mind explaining how that can possibly be?

RodneyT I see your point on well6 resources which are growing
A/ refilling as oil sucked in to reservoir?
B / that the reservoir was never correctly assessed and indicated was always larger but unrecognised?
C/ they are lying scum bags who held the full size of reserves back in 2021 cpr?

On ESPs this is a response from the company i received in Nov 2022. After assessing the risk of pump failure.
What is interesting from a DCU point of view is if there is repair to do or downtime where fixed costs rack up ..the DCU’s might miss out on some short term revenues as far as i can tell but meet none of the costs. So if there was a 2 month shut down to switch over then PRAX covers the $20m plus cost …once repaired DCUs just start picking up the revenues again, ..which would be better than equity earnings.just a thought.
Here is company answer on ESP’s

As was explained at the AGM, while each well has two downhole Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs), only one is running, with the second available as a “back up”. Depending on the cause of any “issue” with the ESP, the Company is faced with a choice of
Switching between ESPs through a ROV visit to the wellhead
Engaging a rig to visit to wellsite and perform a workover to replace/repair the ESP
Doing nothing
The cost and time of performing each task varies, dependant on many factors although guidance was given if all equipment and services were freely available, and the weather favourable, the ROV approach would take of the order of 6-8 weeks and cost, in round numbers, in the region of US$500,000. A workover would, again in round numbers, cost in the region of US$30-40 million and take 6 months.

The decision to perform any of the tasks would be an economic decision and be highly dependent on the circumstances at the time, including equipment and services availability, weather conditions (both actual and predicted), time of year (weather impact), the current and predicted production rate, the current and predicted oil price, etc.

The specific question asked at the AGM was, given the issue with the pump previously encountered, what was the chance of success of it restarting if swapped? The answer was that there was a 75% chance of it restarting but its performance levels would be uncertain.

Lots of numbers and assumptions but just to comment on 1 you make irrespective that you make no comments whatsoever on the potential of early cessation the main reason no body wants to bid a premium.
‘Page 21 shows 2P reserves (the best estimate of reserves – page 61) of 6.6 million barrels. Based on $ 80 per barrel (page 6) and production to August 2025, this amounts to around $ 528 million or £432 million projected revenue over the next 30 months.’

So to end August 2025 the expected cessation date taken from the up to date cpr.
I make end august as being more like 28 months or 850 days or 807 days allowing for normal level of downtime. Last known production 7700 bopd and declining steadily as the water cut creeps higher.. To get 6.6m barrels out of the ground in 807 days that would mean you expect production to jump and hold at around 8200 bopd and hold for the next 28 months. Is that right? I think it more likely that they get far less out before they hit economic limit and there is several M left in the ground uneconomically available. Think big numbers need to be thought though.

Me rattled not at all…just amazed that you think i am Maris…absolutely bizarre and to be fair a very nasty thing to call anyone ..so less of the personal stuff or i will suggest you are Chaffe in deep cover working covertly to uncover shareholders against the scheme…i think thats how it works isn’t it. Just make stuff up regardless of any reasonable basis.

So you reckon i am the ceo of the Hurricane fully conforming to the takeover code in your view??
Jeez..a bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing here isn't it , much safer to see shadows in ignorance !!

Sefton..so you are going back to the restructuring to launch civil charges for the losses incurred in proposing a restructuring to shareholders. Well it may have proved wrong and lost in high court but what civil charge are you making exactly. There was an investigation of their behaviour demanded by CRS I seem to remember conducted externally and they found no wrong doing and adherence to legal advice recieved.i could be wrong but best of luck taking them on with that..though i certainly would not want to fund any such adventure…not really a jail matter that is it.
I thought you were indicating you thought their was criminal activity around this scheme of arrangement ..got nothing on that ??