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Oil

Perhaps now that the net drawdown of the Shell facilities loan will be materially less than originally anticipated (because of a lower final purchase price given the higher oil prices) Shell may actually support this 2nd preemption with CHAR involved if only to increase the combined drawdown? They’ve already done their dd on the asset. And they make money from issue inc debt attached to offtake barrels.

I don’t like it that they’re talking about these conversations in the past tense!

Titan

Those contingent payments on the ENOG deal relate to specific performance indicators over-and-above the initial barrels to be acquired. IF they become payable, they will be paid in the next years.

September? It's going to be a long summer in this case.

Interesting point on including Trident in on the preemption to meet the deepwater operator requirement. I wonder though, where does that leave CHAR? Are we even needed? Perhaps only to drawdown funds from the Shell facility? It would be great.

650 new shares from the exercise of warrants even though they are well out of the money.

I think someone's fat finger hit the exercise button by mistake.

Any idea when the original preemption with us will be finalized?

Or they could use the Shell facilities credit line.

55p buyout? I’d accept that

I believe the odds on getting the GL are greater than 50%, which is why I’m still holding

This is certainly interesting. A mob has formed in Phulbari yarping on about "Phulbari is the hot land of coal mining . . if this agreement does not include our voice it is not democratic . . . we will fight imperialism . . . if they shoot us with b@#lets again we will keep protesting"

What agreement is he referring to?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_BlFf67vaXw

I don’t think so, Oiltdr.

Shell will have a fair idea by now of what the max drawdown of the facility will be given that the effective date is already +16 months ago. It’s certain now that the drawdown will be considerably less than originally planned. That would disappoint Shell, and they would therefore be interested in discussing the possibility of another preemption in order to increase the drawdown amount. Same counterparty. Same asset. Same risk profile.

Feasibility study, Phulbari, OPM and BNP all in the same paragraph. Nice!

Perhaps the next RNS will be a notification that GCM has been formally asked to cooperate in a feasibility study for OPM at Phulbari? Or requested to update their own feasibility studies to be then checked by an independent expert?

No, Surfit. Nothing has been announced. We’re just speculating!

Jt

That makes sense. A UK registered company is the debt holder.

Honestly I'm positive that we'll get news of a 2nd pre-emption soon. ENOG states that EBITDAX on the concession they propose to buy was $119m in 2025. Current oil prices could easily push this to +$150m in 2026. Given that the base consideration for the deal is $260 (plus upside sharing mechanism when Brent passed a certain threshold - which it most certainly has) we could be looking at a net drawdown of less than $100m.

The Shell facilities is $170m. The net drawdown on the current CHAR/Etu deal could be as little as $20m, meaning we've got c.$150m remaining credit. More than enough.

The thing is though, if Etu can easily drawdown the loan from Shell facilities then surely it means Chariot’s involvement won’t be necessary?

They could have also wrote ‘and the original Phulbari feasibility study is to be reevaluated by an independent expert’ but they didn’t.

Bara south is NOT Phulbari

I’m still skeptical, but still holding strong.

Surety

In 2025 EBITDAX was $119m on that ENOG stake (read it in the RNS) Given that 2026 oil prices are nearly double that of 2025 I think an NPV of $150m is on the low side.

Honestly we could be looking at a NPV of +$300m of the combined share of CHAR’s stake in offshore Angola if they partner again with Etu on a preemption of the Energean deal

Surety

And don’t forget about the planned sale of renewables. That alone could bring in $50m or so.

Masterfly

Correct. The effective date for the current Char / Etu deal is 1 Jan 25. And the date for the ENOG deal is 1 Jan 26.

I’m just thinking that Char /Etu may shortly decide to muscle in on the ENOG deal. Oil prices are so high so that the net loan needed by Char /Etu to finance that deal would be considerably less than the $250m gross sales price

The Energean RNS states that EBITDAX on the assets to be acquired was $119m in 2025. Assuming a moderate decline in production volume is completely offset by the increase in oil prices this year, and given that the deal will only close at the end of this year with an effective date 01 Jan 2026 it means we can take c.$120m off that $250m prices tag (incentive payments on higher Brent pricing notwithstanding)

So a net loan draw down of $130 may only be needed, and half of that is on CHaR, the other half on Etu.

Considering that the net drawdown by CHAR for the 1st preemptive deal with Etu could be next to zero (coz of the increase in oil prices this year) it’s reasonable to consider that the Shell credit line could indeed support preemption on Chevron’s sale to Energean. Get in!