I think the sellers are betting on some of the remaining 2019 milestones spilling over to 2020 - which seems very likely TBH - and they are hoping it will create a buying apportunity later. Why hold at .3 if you think you'll be able to repurchase at .25 at the end of year?
I'm not selling but I'm not fully invested either. I'm still keeping some of my powder dry in case people get disillusioned with Licence not being obtained in 2019 (that's basically a given), funding not getting secured in Dec, EU money not comming through, FID not being truly "final" or not being taken at all in 2019 etc, basically any of the major milestones being moved to Q1 2020.
IMHO they were hoping to raise exactly £0. They had already gotten all the money they needed from their institutional offering, and that £1mil/£2mil retail offer was only added as an afterthought, to appease existing shareholders who had every reason to feel left out.
If you're a trader, a quick 14% gain is nothing to sniff at.
@Si_Derman "long-only" means then don't short equities, it has nothing to do with the duration.
I don't think JW is really interested in getting more money from the market at this juncture, he got all he needed from the initial offering and there's no point in further dillution at such low price. This PrimaryBid exersise is only meant to throw a bone to retail shareholders, but I wouldn't be surprised if INFA was actually keeping their fingers crossed that it doesn't get fulfilled.
@dawski Keep in mind that 2.5B placing in the offing plus Riverfort warrants, shares outstanding are around 4B, giving a fully diluted market cap of over £12mil, not £5mil.
Thanks Radders and Snowman, will read through it when I have a minute.
> 42 days is enshrined in legislation
I know it seems to be the common knowledge here, but I'd really like to see a link supporting that. I haven't found any mention of that in DAERA guidance:
https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/doe/marine-licensing-guidance-overview-and-process-under-part-4-marine-and-coastal-access-act-2009-may-2016.pdf
Thanks spud! So they've been involved with the H&W, not the IM project?
@Tango Sure thing, if it's free - it's for me :) However, such money shouldn't be part of your business plan unless it's been granted and you're legally entitled to it (like the 1.6mil EU grant). In the context of that mysterious InvestNI grant, the RNS states as follows:
"If the timing of any of these is delayed or takes longer than currently expected then it is likely that the Company will require additional finance during the first half of 2020."
So I have to ask: when did that grant (which we have no details of) became an integral part of the business plan, to such extent that any delay in obtaining it may result in another round of financing?
Also, wasn't the financing package (you know, the one still pending) supposed to take care of any money issues?
Thanks Tango! I'm still surprised to see that such grant is now listed as a pre-condition to avoiding future round of financing. It looks like we went from "looking to take advantage of these in the future" to being financially dependent on it in 6 short weeks.
I found the website, but I wasn't aware that INFA applied - or was even planning to apply - for any such grant. Did I miss a memo?
The 7am RNS talks about "an additional grant from InvestNI". Does anyone here have any details? It's news to me.
Where is your £11mil figure coming from?
If the assets were in fact worth that much, why wouldn't anyone with deep pockets overbid INFA by a mil or two and still bank a solid profit?
The answer is: because they wouldn't be able to sell it to anyone for 11mil, therefore it's not worth 11mil. Value of an asset is how much someone is willing to pay for it.
If it was worth 11mil, you'd have lenders busting through your door to lend you 6mil secured on that.
@droderick Isn't that how every mortgage in the history of mortgages ever worked? You secure funding first, then purchase an asset that will serve as collateral. It's not "very hard" to find such lender, in fact offers are being crammed down my throat at every corner.
Failure to find a lender for a £6mil loan secured on physical assets doesn't bode well for getting hundreds of millions secured on future earnings. JW has a lot of explaining to do.
> Milestones promised, delivered and announced ON TIME
I can't fail to notice that one of them slipped from Oct to Nov.
I'm not sure how to understand the "anagement is working closely with the NIEA and DAERA to finalise the timelines for the final activities related to the full marine licence" bit. Does it mean that the clock on the consultation deadline hasn't started yet? And how long will that be when it starts - someone here said 42 days, but I only found info about 28-day consultation process?
> Liquid- The EU never gave a specific date just implied around the october time...
At the risk of being repetetive, I'm gonna say EU never ever implied any such thing.
To (mis)quote JW, their EU contact "frowned upon August and grinned when asked about September", and then someone here translated it into "EU funds promised for September!" message which quicily got a life of its own.
"I would guess that the Marine Licence is the only remaining substantial risk factor."
I see funding as a much bigger risk than anything else. Marine licence is pretty much nailed on imho, although it might come later than anticipated. Money, on the other hand, will be harder to obtain with every passing week.
Didn't know there was a form to fill in in order to gain credibility on this forum, and I'm even more perplexed that questions have to be answered "satisfactorily". I wonder who sits on the committee thay needs to be satisfied.
It's getting more tribal or sectarian here by the day. Just chill and enjoy the news.