My worry is case rates across the US are continuing to increase, and now we're seeing a corresponding increase in the number of deaths. Not a popular comment I know, but it does give me cause for concern. In all honesty I don't see cinema's opening in the US at the end of this month if that trend continues.
I wouldn't necessarily agree with that M00la...
Covid cases are not all equal with regards to how likely they are to lead to hospitalisation. The vast majoroity of people will be asymptomatic or feel very mildly unwell, the cases that lead to deaths (which would end up in hospital) are more likely to be the ones that overwhelm a medical system.
Growth in US cases has already started to slow actually.
The incubation you talk about makes little sense. We know that deaths lag infection by weeks, but cases started increasing rapidly in mud-June. 3 weeks since and actual death rates are beginning to fall.
People actually get caught up with looking solely at the new daily cases, but deaths are arguably more important with regards to reopening. We have to reassess our approach to Covid if it turns out to be significantly less deadly that it appeared to be a couple of months ago.
Interesting article here:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/why-arent-cinemas-reopening
Data from other markets suggests that there is an appetite for movies from members of the public. In France, cinemas sold more than a million tickets in their first nine days after reopening, even with social distancing. In the UK, cinemas that were planning to open this weekend appear to have sold out some showings – particularly of Oscar-winning movie Parasite, which was enjoying a successful run before lockdown.
Damodubya - appreciated. I can get my Trump/BLM/Anti-vax/bill-gates-is-the-devil chat from the Karen's on facebook.
It's tedious as hell.
Using anecdotal experience to draw conclusions about a billion+ people is also the sign of a simpleton.
I think people were either looking for a lower entry point or putting too much importance on a legal case, the details of which none of us are privvy to.
For me, and I assume everyone else who first bought into Cineworld over the past few months, it's a straight up recovery play. Covid seems to be slowing in the UK and showing very early signs of slowing in the US too. That's the main driver for share price growth here. Longer term, cinema tends to do well in recessionary environments.
I'm in the same boat here. Don't see how this changes anything in a material sense.
I disagree that there is now more uncertainty. Everyone knew a legal case against Cineworld was coming and we're expected to return one in due course. Cinemark aren't some penny share business - if they say they're bringing a case against someone, they absolutely will.
I guess the size of the damages claim could be deemed 'new information', but that's about it for me.
Half an hour until we all find out I guess. Futures market looking good.
Surprised at what seems to be some pretty heavy negativity here. There’s nothing in the Cinemark RNS that was particularly unexpected to me. In my experience, lawsuits are almost invariable messy and lengthy disputes, with no clear winner - except the lawyers.
No idea which way this will go tomorrow, but would be surprised to see any movement of the magnitude some are suggesting here.
Peaked*
Covid cases seem to have picked in the US. Today’s figure is basically exactly the same as it was 7 days ago, with yesterday’s figure also being marginally lower than Thursdays according to worldometer.
From the BBC:
Film fans have returned to cinemas in England as restrictions on indoor film screenings lifted.
While not all chains have reopened, there were signs of demand on Saturday lunchtime at Showcase Cinema at the Bluewater shopping centre in Kent.
Molly Ladbrook-Hutt, 36, said it "felt great to be somewhere different".
She added: "I'm really impressed so far with the measures, everything has been really clearly explained and it has been a lot easier than expected."
The trend may well already be improving, albeit tentatively.
Fridays new case numbers were 55,000, Thursdays were 57,000. Consider that this time last week saw a significant jump from Thursday to Friday.
It’s too early to say, but there are tentative signs of the rate of growth slowing down.
I think we can all agree with that the board is a better place when it's not Investroid vs whoever else having a go at on another. Informative posts can actually slip through the net because the board just gets cluttered by way of constant pitching.
Yes, some of it he brings on himself (bragging about supposed wealth to a room full of internet strangers IS bizarre), but I would have to ask the respondents - why does it get to you so much? Personally, I don't come on here for a good chin wag.
Good, informative post RS2002 - much appreciated.
I know the news is exceptionally negative in the US but hear me out...
Yesterday's figures were approx a 27.76% increase on last Tuesday's (the 23rd) figure. High in itself, but also the lowest 7-day percentage increase we've seen since the 20th June. Too early to jump to any conclusion, but slightly encouraging that the rate of growth may at least be slowing.
I would have preferred no delay in all honesty. I expect there to be an element of staff 'finding their feet' with new social distancing guidelines whether we open mid-July, late-July, or some other time. For me, in the UK at least, numbers are such that I would've like to see us open up mid July. Provided it didn't lead to a spike in the UK it would've also given us a nice indication that cinema could be operated safely. Finally, while I expect demand to be very strong, I do expect it to increase as it's demonstrated to be safe. For me, having a month in operation before the big releases would've been preferable.
I can accept that the people making the decisions have far more information at hand though, and that the decision will have been made in the best interest of CINE.
It means just what it says - an institutional investor has sold a large portion of their holding. This would probably explain a lot of the price action over the last couple of weeks.
Draft - that’s about the only certainty here. When they do open (whenever that may be) appetite will be strong for tickets.
We’ve seen it in every other sector, be that public space, retail, or travel, so I don’t see why cinema would be different.
The truth is nobody can call this share.
It tanked after a series of positive RNS's and is now climbing after having it's return date shifted back by 2 weeks. Nobody here really knows where it's going to go.
I've said it before and will say it again - god mid/long term play at these prices, but not without risk.