It occurs to me that the first question on data un-blinding would be "how many deaths on placebo and how many for those taking SNG". This could be provided to Synairgen with a high degree of accuracy within minutes / hours / days, so I would like to think RM knows these numbers already and has done for a while... and they could explain the recent positive tweets & announcements.
The rest of the detailed analysis & evaluation is essential, and will be of massive interest to the experts & regulators, but this most basic measure will create the headlines and is the biggest test of DOES IT WORK.
If the numbers mirror the P2 trial or we end up with something like a 1 in 10 ratio of deaths on SNG vs Placebo the share price should really fly as we see widescale interest.
Just a thought.
My understanding is that to be enrolled in Active-2 you don't need to have any medical issues, don't need to be of a certain age and don't need to be admitted to hospital. Basically, just need to be within a few days of a positive test. On that basis filling the p2, and when the time comes the p3 should not be hampered by falling hospitalisations, vaccine success or any of the other rubbish being raised.
News soon I feel :-)
Been discussed many times, £2,000 is not a high price to pay if it works... keeps people out of hospital and ICU's and saves money and health for many (especially US health insurance companies). Just means it will be targeted at those in most need with other health conditions. And if 100k per month is all we can make & sell then the MCAP potential is still huge... i.e. £50 SP target still possible if normal multipliers apply and margin is good.
IF it works!!
1. The trial has to be a success, the bar has been set pretty low here so 50% effective will be great.
2. We have to be able to manufacture in high volume at low cost to protect margin.
3. We need approvals and orders.
Get those 3 and we are quids in.
So... if the margin is say 50% then we're talking £1.2bn pa profit, or £6 per share dividend. If that is the case, and it is sustainable, then we really could be talking about an SP north of the £50 bull valuation by Numis... Nice!!
Trial news is great, we know things are progressing. But, to allow a proper valuation and major shift in the SP we need news on all of the following:
1. Manufacturing and capacity - how many can we make?
2. Orders or pre-orders - how many can we sell?
3. Approvals - are we allowed to proceed?
Until then there is risk and therefore speculation... Hopefully not long to wait now!
I think an upward re-trace is more likely. The SP / MCAP is far too low for a company with this many irons in this many fires. All leading up to the announcement of sales and manufacturing volumes that will allow a far more accurate valuation, which IMO will be billions.
Until we get pre-orders, which turn into actual-orders and £££ revenue any estimates of SP are purely speculation. The share price will be volatile based on news of the day (or lack of), and will be largely irrelevant to long-term investors. This makes it a great place for traders to gamble and makes these message boards very painful reading sometimes.
However, IF successful there is no doubt demand will outstrip supply, so IF we can live up to manufacturing goals already set we are talking:
£2,000(sale price) * 100,000(treatments per month) = £200,000,000 per month... or £2,400,000,000 per year (that is a lot of zeroes).
Still unknown is the margin on each sale and ability to scale up manafacturing. BUT... with fairly low overheads, no debt to service and sales of £2.4 billion pa will mean massive profits a share price at least 10x what we see now (hopefully a lot more).
I have waited since April, so am prepared to sit it out for another few months then we will know.