Member Info for kevin0541

It’s more that the major is in this with us and drilling 24/7 even through the height of the summer when other drillers stop. They need this for their Telfer reprocessing plant and are truly excited by what they have found so far. Big unknown is what Paddy spotted which is a huge step-out suggesting the field is much bigger than they had expected. We will know more about this in this coming week!

Haddad if you want the thought leader here it is Paddygall who researches using weekly satellite images and shares his findings. Normally the new sat images are sundays

Paddy you are correct. NCM issued this re Hav on 30 January, but results weren’t until 19 February

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-01/200130_Newcrest%20Dec%2019%20Quarterly%20Report%20-%20Exploration.pdf

Market cap is a pure multiplier of price times number of shares in issue. Share price is normally related to earnings as price earnings ratio. Healthcare often has a higher P/E ratio because of the possibility of stability and future growth, but tech is the same.

He rightly called out AAOG as fraudsters and I wish I had believed him as I lost a lot of money

Fair point Paddy and on reflection this could make sense as Hav gets a bit lost in the full report of NCM

The date of 30th is formally announced and cannot be brought forward. However, given time difference, if you subscribe to announcements on their website you could get 5he news about 10pm 29th

Hi Max

I would seriously question your valuation approach. In nearly all cases acquisitions are based on a multiple of EBITDA ( earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation). A norm for many companies is 5-7 times EBITDA, but tech companies have sold for 20 or 30 times. It’s all about the buyers view of future profits and benefits of joining up the two companies eg savings on overheads. I am not a mining expert (though I am heavily invested here), so I suspect if an offer were to be made they would need to base it in predicted EBITDA rather than actual. GH will have a view on future earnings and that will inform his view on any offer.

Kevin

Thank you and also to PDMSPiper for the answer. He seems an accomplished Fund Manager so to invest on this scale shows a huge amount of confidence in ODX

Can anyone tell me if Richard holds the 20% as a private individual or for Baillie Gifford where he i# Fund Manager? TR1 seems to suggest former which would obviously give higher level of confidenc3 in outlook

https://www.***************************/avacta-group-ceo-alastair-smith-looking-to-develop-further-covid19-testing-kit-partnerships-interview/412815461

It is only traded here but that doesn't stop someone in the US buying in the same way as I can buy a US listed stock

Hi Comek You and Wilson are correct and I am incorrect IPO still show a holding of 15% on their website but an RNS on 6 April showed they dropped to below 3%, so your explanation helps

Hi Wilson

I don't believe I did - see IP Group website https://www.ipgroupplc.com/our-portfolio/portfolio

Looking at website the biggest shareholder is IP Group (IPO) at 15%, yet their share price is 50% down on the year and was at 50p. Could be worth a punt their if we all think AVCT will be huge. I just bought 1000/point on IG and had to buy in 5 tranches due to unavailability and every purchase ticked the price up and now at 54p

Hi Tom

He has to be conservative to retain credibility, but the potential SP at 20m oz and $2000 gold price was £1

Great analysis including potential valuation scenarios - Paddygall a contributor, so has credence to those of us who highly respect him here
https://youtu.be/rJH4LWJdCUo
Will put this message up a few times in the day to ensure everyone sees it

9 hit on IG!

No such thing as a certainty! Next news due from our partner Newcrest on 30th. Every indication so far is that this is a very big gold fund and Newcrest are drilling 24/7 to produce a Maiden Resource Estimate ASAP. That will determine real price and possibly buy out of GGP. Price could well hit 15-20p but YOU NEVER KNOW

Big rise on the cards