Member Info for kevin0541

Went into auction after this drop and has bounced back out of auction to 14.5. Clearly someone or people mopping up JPM’s sells

@TT I wish I shared your enthusiasm. That 1m sell yesterday before close tells me that JPM have an inside track and knew MRE wasn’t coming and this will be in the know when it is. Just my opinion but they certainly weren’t scared ahead of the RNS

Released in Aus night of 16 Feb our time and announced here 17th

Big drop occurred on other stocks at exactly the same time eg GGP. There were sells of 1.5m in 15 mins just after 2pm there

I hold ACP (another mining stock) and at exactly the same time it went from positive to 6% down. Odd things happening but it ain’t just GGP

The buy is interesting and exciting but the fact that it was matched to a seller of the same or more shares on the books at the time of the random auction (requirement of UT trade) is also very interesting. I wonder if JPM got caught out leaving it on the books and will now have to buy it all back?

Halifax will take 500k shares at 15.31 so there must still be a strong buy book

I think if you listen again he says at the beginning that these arrangements were in place before he joined and later effectively says that it’s too early in the lifecycle to get a true value of the 5%. In other words he would have preferred for this deal to have been negotiated later, but is bound by the agreement and will seek to get a fair price on the information known now. Obviously we would get more in a year or so, but that’s not what GH negotiated

This is a great interview with searching questions and very good answers. Much better than any Proactive interview

Your approach Aquakidd is as valid as anyone else’s. I for one, and I am sure it is also true of hydro who immediately attacked you, have bought on a spike a few times only to see it fall again. I do think the steady pressure over last few days feels different and more sustainable, but never assume anything on AIM and certainly people should not believe anyone who says this is now certain to keep rising, even if we all hope it will

Aqua I share your concern but in a slightly different way. I believe the rise will continue to near 20p ahead of MRE2 but my fear is JPM will not close in the hope that it won’t ‘appear high enough’ to the uninitiated and/or no agreement is reached on the FMV and then try to crush the rise.

JPM are shorting this to let their big names buy cheap. The majority of shares are being held by PI’s so limited opportunity unless people are scared into selling. Since they probably started this at around 20+p they can afford to buy back on the squeeze and still be quids in. I am certain in my mind, that they know the true value of GGP and simply want to fill their boots at the lowest they can get for them. They will need to close soon as the FMV could catch them out as it could cause an immediate jump and not let them offload gradually. Just my view!

Here is a great article on UT and can show how a single speculative trade at then end of the day can cause the ridiculous situation on Friday

https://www.shiftingshares.com/what-is-an-uncrossing-trade/

@starbright Good post but one thing you appear to have missed is the MRE2 coinciding with 5% FMV declaration. I fail to see how you can value HAV without doing the sums on the MRE2 (for which they have the data points and SD would insist on this action). IMO and hopefully I am right, there will be a single and big inflection point in the SP

@ sandgrounded They don’t have to buy as it is an option but they couldn’t get it at anything less than the independent arbitration value and of course value will increase over time - hence I am sure they will accept the independent view if it gets to that point

@CB we were talking about the MINIMUM value of GGP after 5% is agreed.

Hi GGP. I see it very slightly differently. If they pay 200m for 5% and we only own 25% then value for us is 1bn. However they are only valuing HAV on what is certain so far and we know there’s much more to come. Juri isn’t included and not is Scally. Your 1.2bn might be right on that basis - fingers crossed!!!!

@ deemon the exploration report on HAV will be published tonight or tomorrow night after about 10.30pm. Normally it is tonight but since they have moved other reports to tomorrow it may also be delayed. Sign up to alerts on Newcrest and it will come to your email

Sorry - shouldn’t really go below the 5x

The SP would be 5x the 5% FMV not 6 GGPThru.. as the market will discount the 5% agreed sale leaving us with 25%. This is the key to a stable SP (I hope) as we shouldn’t really go below the 5% as this is in truth the minimum value of the HAV asset )fraction of a fraction) and doesn’t include non JV assets