Member Info for Kev7722

It's interesting that I read the exclusivity deal another way entirely - I saw it as confirmation that a deal would take 5/6 months from the outset, but the major wanting the opportunity to walk away after 3 without committing any more money if it was obvious early on that a deal wasn't achievable.

Either way though I think we all viewed the extension RNS as a positive sign

40k shares or £40k cost? If it's the latter then it might show up as a delayed buy (or sell, it never seems to be that accurate when the price is moving fast)...

Welcome to the BPC journey, exciting times ahead!

It was an over-simplified example, but of course you can... all investments are educated gambles, but gambles none the less.

In my example the E(X) is £3 for every £1 bet (invested)... (0.5 x £6) + (0.5 x £0), so the informed decision would be you take the bet. The point I was trying to make was that people would be wise to consider splitting their stake (if possible) across a few coin tosses, rather than betting the lot on one. Or else, not to get so caught up by the potential returns that you lose sight of how much money you currently have on the table.

I think the reasons why the major walked would have to come into play in that scenario... if the BG / Environmentals prove to be the sticking point then it's unlikely that another major will step in until the landscape has changed

Maybe a tad dramatic but unless the RNS says, 'Don't panic guys, we've got another one lined up' I don't think it's that far off in reality. But hey, let's hope that we never have to find out :)

I definitely agree that it's a choice each PI has to make for themselves though. My experience with AIM shares has taught me not to have all my eggs in one basket, however attractive that basket might look... yes top slicing mine a few days ago meant accepting that I wont make as much as I could have, and on balance I'm ok with that.

As much as I am feeling pretty optimistic about the outcome I can see where Spike is coming from - it's definitely not a share that you'd want to put everything on, and as such anyone who was 'in' at sub-1p or even c. 3p would be well advised to at least consider de-risking if their portfolio is now overweight on BPC.

The upside is potentially huge on any deal being reached, but equally if this collapses then we're pretty much back to the 1p range within hours... I tend to think of it a bit like betting on a single coin toss, where 'heads' gives you a 500% return and tails you lose your stake - is that a good bet to take? Obviously yes! Would I bet my house on it? Probably not

People missing the boat with a c. 5p entry price maybe? I know it looked as though it was heading lower heading into Friday so a few people probably got caught out by the recovery

Ah, just saw your follow-up post

Normally I'd agree with you re. the price action on no news.

The problem with your argument here is that we have a clearly defined roadmap for newsflow - by the end of the month we'll either have an extension on an outcome... that being the 2nd of 3 possible extensions, we will then have either a final extension or an outcome by the end of September and an outcome by the end of October

That’s a great basis for a model to play about with various scenarios too (less than 8bn barrels, OPEC’s closer to $30/barrel etc.) Sufficed to say though that any realistic farm out scenario would result in a huge upside... and for anyone brave enough to ride it out, if they hit oil...

That would give a current SP of around 10p today on a like for like basis, which would support others’ arguments that there could be significant upside here even before the outcome is announced - and certainly on a good outcome

Not sure if that comment was aimed at me, but there had been some debate around the number of shares in issue last time the SP was in the 20’s - I took your 110m figure as the basis for my comparatives, but I think you must have been talking about further back than that. SP last rose into the 20’s in Jan 2011 - per RNS issued 30/09/10: “Following Admission, the above figure of 979,482,698 ordinary shares may be used by shareholders in the Company as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, BPC under the Financial Service Authority's Disclosure and Transparency Rules. The Company does not hold any shares in treasury. “

It’s a fair point re. the dilution - someone else here said there were about 110m shares in issue back in early 2011, but I’ve just checked back and the number I have is 979,482,698. I wasn’t even aware of the company back then, but it does seem like direct comparisons are much fairer than I’d believed them to be - apologies. Re. the rest of your post, you’ve missed my point - which is odd considering you’ve quoted me illustrating that point - I think a good farm out deal will push the SP into the 30’s, I also think the SP is much lower now because there’s still a high likelihood of us not getting a good farm out deal. Also, I actually said I’d sold enough to be on a free carry here - I’ve been following BPC for a while, so fortunate to have only paid an average of around 1.3p... sold approx 1/4 of my holding when the price started drifting back towards 6p, meaning I’ve made a small profit overall and still have 75% of my shares in play.

I’m never sure if it’s just blatant ramping or people not doing their research, but saying ‘this was in the 20’s a while ago’ is nonsense - on a like for like basis the SP is now over £1, so the company is actually viewed much more favourably by the market now than it was in 2011! If BPC did a 10:1 consolidation Monday I wonder how many posts we’d get from people going, ‘OMG I’m rich’, then half an hour later, ‘Hey - where’d all my shares go?!’

‘Slightly less shares in issue’ Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought there had been something like a 1:14 dilution since early 2011... that’s not exactly a small increase

Hi Pred, as usual I didn’t manage to predict the top... I did managed to sell enough at around 6.3p though to leave myself a free carry here (I wanted to stay in just incase there’s an announcement imminent). I have noticed with the lse boards that an awful lot of people seem to always manage to buy right at the bottom of a dip and sell at the peak - either they’re much better at this than I am or maybe not all of them are being completely honest, hmmmm

With every passing day I'd say that it's increasingly likely the next RNS we get will be confirmation of another 1-month rollover... the first rollover was obviously viewed as positive by the market, any thoughts on whether the market will have an opinion either way on the 2nd?

Yes, glad we're all in agreement re. the impact of the dilution ;)

If you bought shares back in 2011 for 20p and have done nothing since then the subsequent dilutions mean that, whilst the company as a whole is worth a lot more now, you'll still be sitting on a significant loss as you own a much smaller slice of the pie.

If you're relatively new to the company though then that's where looking at historic SP movements in isolation can be very misleading - here for example you may assume that the company is in a much worse place than it was 7 years ago as the SP is down 65%... in reality (at least in the market's view) we're in a much stronger position, with the Mcap having increased 5-fold.

As an aside, I've never really understood why it's so hard to find a charting tool that lets you view Mcap over time... for some analysis that would be a lot more useful than SP over time.

That was more or less my point - new investors to BPC shouldn't get too hung up on what the SP was 7+ years ago as it has very little relevance to the today.

I think there's around 1.6bn shares in issue now (happy to stand corrected if that's not the case), so the dilution would be around 1:14 or 1:15... as a good approximation of where we are today vs. 2011 that would equate to around £1 a share if there had been no dilution

*you're fresh

Sorry, couldn't resist - although maybe we could stop with the derogatory '30-something' references (I'm sure there's a lot of us that know exactly what we're doing)?

And Braces - I wouldn't get too hung up on the 2011 price; there's been a lot of dilution since then. In other words, a move to 20p now would mean the company is seen to be a lot valuable than last time it was trading at that level.