Member Info for Kev7722

“It isn't a fact and if the major had walked it's market sensitive info hat (sic) would have had to be RNSed.”

I’ve seen this argument on here a few times now but I’m still having trouble understanding it... what does ‘walked’ even mean? The only formal agreement between BPC and another party was the exclusivity - terminating that was market sensitive and was RNSed. There’s nothing else to walk away from - it’s not like the major would have said, ‘Go away and never talk to me again’.

Why no RNS noting the SP fall though? Do they only have to issue those for sharp rises that they believe could be misleading to investors?

The only times I thought there might be a clarifying RNS were the day after it crashed (if it wasn’t intended to be read as bad news there I assumed there’d be a statement re. SP movement) or next Monday, once the exclusivity period has ended... not holding my breath though, I still think the market read the last RNS the way it was intended to be read

Yes, without over l-analysing the RNS I took it to mean they have OPEX more than covered in the short term. Any idea how much we’re paying MQ though? If they’re staying on that must be hitting the bottom line.

Using the models that were discussed here pre-RNS and my SP target on a deal being reached I had that the market as a whole gave it about a 25-30% chance of success; I thought that was too low personally at the time, but based on where we are now I’d say a 10-15% chance of success is fairly realistic. Of course the flip side to that is that people buying in now are looking at, say, a potential 15-bagger vs. a 5-bagger last week - as the risk increased so did the potential reward!

As for timeframes - it would need to happen before the money runs out or we’re looking at further dilution as a best case scenario.

I suspect that there are a few holders nursing considerable losses here - the RNS caught almost everyone off guard, myself included!

I’m very conscious now though that this is a big risk for new investors, and not one I want to be seen encouraging people to buy into without doing their research! I personally think there is an all too real going concern risk here, depending on why the major walked (assuming they have walked, before anyone jumps on that again)

Nope, I’m very much long - thankfully on a free float! But I’m also a realist... I took a gamble on a binary bet with a huge potential upside and it didn’t come off! Will I hold and hope, yes. Would I top up, absolutely not.

As much as I wish it wasn’t the case anyone who thinks the RNS was anything other than a hammer blow to shareholders is clutching at straws... and the likely answer to the Friday buys is a combination of day trading, the fact the sharp drop means sells weren’t being recorded accurately and, yes, some hopeful people getting their entry points.

Make no mistake though, the people who bought in at c. 6p expecting a multi bag are in dire straits here - they really do have my sympathies too, there was far too much ramping here, far too much confirmation bias when analysing every word in every RNS, and far too much shooting down of anyone urging caution!

It strikes me that some people will grasp at anything in an RNS that *could* be spun in a positive light... you wind back a few days and the board was full of posters confidently stating the deal was already done based on exactly that!

For me, I’m holding my remaining shares incase of a clarifying RNS early next week or immoderately after the extension period ends, or a satisfactory (positive) update at the AGM. The absence of any of those and I’ll be cashing out, based on the reality that it’s more than likely curtains for BPC.

‘...We are now able to freely re-engage in discussions...’

The last time they were freely engaging in discussions with all interested parties the SP was bouncing around the 1p mark - it would be just as valid to say the market undershot this news as to claim it was an overreaction! In fact the only thing likely to stop this from going into a slow drift back to 1p is that we’re due some answers (good or bad) from BPC in the coming days!

There is logic in that argument PI, but for me the sticking point is the RNS - if it was a done deal pending the EA then I maintain that this RNS is bordering on criminal manipulation of the SP, given that it was obviously going to tank on release... it’s not manipulation of course, because there is no pending deal

Agreed - it was clearly posted by an idiot on advfn desperately trying to suck people in... let’s not go there! The worrying thing is that some novices will buy in based on little more than a post like that!

We won’t have to wait long now to get some actual answers straight from the horse’s mouth... and this horse has a lot of answers to give us!

PI - I take your point, but in your example (1 in a million) you really need to replace 'Pessimist' with 'Realist'. The problem is that people always want to believe in that magic money tree...

At the end of the day anyone who was in before the 1 month extension should have top sliced, especially if a 'no deal' left them sitting on losses that will be keeping them awake at night. Most people are, by nature, greedy - I used to be, and I've been burnt badly in the past, which is why myself and others (not sure if Pred is still here?) were cashing out some profits in the 6's and 7's.

I'm not going to pretend this isn't horrific - as it stands I'm about £21k worse off than I was when I woke up, but I'm also around £12.4k up overall from my pre-exclusivity holding (including my top slice).

The RNS is garbage really - without knowing the reasons behind the major terminating the exclusivity BPC could either be in a stronger position than it was yesterday or utterly worthless... FWIW I wouldn’t get your hopes up though, they will have known the impact the RNS would have on the market; if they were about to sign or rejected a deal because they wanted better terms then this RNS would probably be tantamount to market manipulation.

The market valued this at 1p pre-exclusivity, I’m not seeing a lot to duggest it’s worth much more than that now - and if I’m wrong then they need to provide clarification ASAP

A lot of the people here in the past few weeks seemed to treat this as though the deal was already done - as I said a few days ago this was a pretty much a coin toss with a massive potential upside... I just hope some LTHs followed suit and top sliced while we were in the 6’s, but I know a lot didn’t!

FWIW I take no pleasure in saying I’m on a free ride, I’m probably going to lose about £25k in a few minutes time...

I quite liked Spikes £60 SP on successful spud personally - you wouldn’t see me for dust if that happened lol

I’m going to stick with my original 35-40p estimate off the back of a ‘good’ deal, although even a bad deal would probably push it into the 20’s... I also agree with those saying don’t top slice that immediately - I think it’ll take a day and a half at least to settle down as some LTH’s invariably do cash out and the news spreads / interest is generated amounts new PI’s and II’s come on board.

If they strike oil first time out then for me that takes a lot of the risk that is currently factored into the price off the table, then the models discussed a few days ago should be a reasonably fair reflection of what the resource might be worth to BPC over time... I honestly don’t think it’s unrealistic to say that in that scenario anyone who bought in the months leading up to the exclusivity period will be looking at a hundred+ bag; even for small investors that’s truely life changing sums.

Thanks

So is it essentially a measure of liquidity then? As in a higher volume of buy orders than sell orders near the touch price is a good indicator that the price is likely to move upwards? Or am I barking up the wrong tree?

Hi Degsy - apologies in advance for my ignorance, but I've never had access to the level 2 console...

I understand the benefits of being able to view orders awaiting execution on both the buy and sell sides of the book, but what does the 2v1 actually mean? Is it literally the ratio of buy to sell orders?

A lot of people would probably prefer the c. 9 hour time difference for an RNS - I pick up the 7am ones as I'm heading out the door, so I'm usually not able to act on them until I'm at the office, about half hour after the markets open