Member Info for Kev7722

Mid-late November through to early 2019 was always going to be the most likely time for any real newsflow (barring a sale / takeover), and as such the SP was always destined to drift down.

The question really is what you think Webis have been doing in the background for all this time - if you still believe that the initial rise to 7p+ was justified then 2.5p may look like a bargain by next summer...

In Pred's defence, if he was trading this stock off the back of strong support around 14p then he could walk away right now and be 20% up in a week... we're all here to make money at the end of the day!

Hi Pred, at what point would you think it's worth getting in here? As you say 14p seems to be holding nicely, pending further news, and the NAV for DA that was disclosed probably doesn't bear much relation to the price they are looking to sell for...

But then I recall a lot of people claiming that this was a bargain at 57p a few months back, and people claiming it was a terrible investment at 2p a few months back from that!

I understand that no new, price sensitive information can be shared at the AGM, but surely they can translate their RNS for us... unless they were being deliberately ambiguous, in which case they should be able to confirm that’s the case.

They’ve already put the price sensitive information out, we’re just saying it isn’t very clear.

What a refreshing change - someone speaking open and honestly about getting the call wrong. The number of people claiming they sold out at 7p+ is pretty amusing...

Neptunes I think that on balance you are probably right about the end of formal negotiations - informal negotiations were obviously happening with multiple parties prior to exclusivity and they didn't have to be RNS'd, so there's obviously not going to be any RNS stating parties have 'walked away' from informal negotiations - companies talk to each other all the time, so anyone basing the fact a deal is still on the table on the fact the RNS didn't state outright that they are no longer talking to the major is clutching at straws (IMO)

What I'm less sure about is that an offer was made at all - I do think that a formal offer (even a derisory one) would have been deemed price sensitive information and requiring of an RNS. Indeed if BPC fades into the background again now and it does come to light that the board rejected an offer without telling anyone then I don't think shareholders would take that too well.

“Anyone that cannot distiguish between the words exclusivity has ended and the words the major has walked obviously were not at all good in english language.”

I doubt they’d have released an RNS that literally said, ‘The major has walked’ even if that’s exactly what happened.

For the past couple of weeks I’ve been adament that the RNS was poorly worded, but now I’m wondering if it was actually very well worded by BPC... if the major has indeed walked away due to something fundamentally unresolvable then this RNS is worded to spin that as positively as possible - the fact they’ve manage to keep the SP closer to 2p than 1p would be testament to that.

I think you’re spot on Oldabutnotwisa - I sold the majority of my holding at just over 3.2p back in mid July, expecting a drift below 2.5p over the coming weeks. Admittedly it’s taken a bit longer to get to the point where I’m considering buying back in, but with AIM patience is sometimes key; I’m not expecting any news until November.

Just to add that the post I was disagreeing with wasn't actually calling people in your situation weak either, it was suggesting that LTH who had sold out on what they see as being bad news are weak.

Davie - I think you may have misunderstood my original post; I wasn't calling any LTH's 'weak', I was disagreeing with another post that was calling them weak... hence the first line being in 'quote'.

My example is based on people like myself that were fortunate enough to buy in below todays price, and I of course have a lot of sympathy for people who got in above 7p and were hoping they were about to see some profits at long last.

FWIW I'm still heavily invested here, but I'm now on a free carry - IMO, picking a share that then 5 bags on the smell of a deal and not taking any money off the table is a terrible investment strategy.

(I meant 20%, not 80% by the way - if you wanted a free carry you'd have your £10k in the bank and 80% of your shares left)

Either way, the risk in taking profits of course is that you will miss out on some of the benefit if a deal is made, and that was a point that I mooted on here a couple of weeks ago when I did just that. As things stand now it's certainly no longer a risk... that person who took the profits in my example below could take their £37k profit and put it all back on the take - they've then got 2m shares vs. the 670k they started with, and a much bigger cut of any future potential upside.

Davie46 - the idea that you've gained or lost nothing until you hit the sell button is a complete fallacy I'm afraid... I'm not advocating day trading, but the fact remains that anyone who bought £10k of shares at 1.5p and took the profits at 7p would now have £37k in the bank and still be holding 80% of their initial shares.

There's no way that you can spin it to convince me you wouldn't prefer to be that person right now.

“if it wasn't for weak holders then the share price wouldn't be where it is”

Taking all your profits if a share 5 bags on the belief a deal will is imminent, but with a very real risk it isn’t - not ingenuine, sensible.

Getting out as quickly as possible if you believe that the release of bad news means at best kicking the can months down the road and at worst curtains - not ingenuine, sensible.

The fact is that any LTH’s that did one or both of the above are now significantly better off than those that didn’t...

As JSCL said below, they cant actually announce anything dramatic at the AGM - they could of course release news to coincide with the AGM though.

For me it's not really about whether or not there is any news to release right now, but the AGM should at least provide much needed clarity regarding the last announcement - the fact that it has been interpreted by different people on here in vastly different ways is in itself an indicator of how poor the announcement was.

Hi All, big day tomorrow (IMO). Being fortunate enough to be on a free ride when the last RMS hit I mentally gave BPC two ‘outs’ for my balance... one (probably the least likely) is a clarifying statement tomorrow, post-exclusivity to tell us that we’ve all (with one obvious exception) worried a bit too much about the exclusivity termination.

The sencond, more likely (again, IMO) being a satisfactory performance from Potter at the AGM... and he will have his back to the wall so the fluffy spin in these RNS’ aren’t going to cut it for me. Absence of both and I’ll be out for whatever I can get!

You’re entitled to your opinion of course, but I still believe that if the company releases what they intended to be really positive news and the market responded by wiping 70% off the value of the company then they would seek to clarify what is clearly a poorly worded statement.

IK “They also have issued a speeding ticket saying market has all pertinent information...”

As I recall, when they issued that RNS the board was littered with people picking that apart word for word and coming to the conclusion that a deal with the major had already been signed, and they were simply holding off on announcing it until the AGM.

Based on the information available to me I have come to the conclusion that there is an awful lot of confirmation bias that falls out of RNS’ that, quite often, have no hidden agenda or secretly coded messages to diligent shareholders...

‘...it will not further extend the exclusive nature of negotiations...’ literally means there were exclusive negotiations, then there weren’t! Anything else is pure speculation. It certainly doesn’t mean there they’ve brought more parties into the talks. It certainly isn’t a guarantee that they are still talking to the major at all!

“I see this has having the potential to give a 50% downside from these levels and a potential 15 bagger.”

Well, yes - I agree with that... a couple of week ago I (and many others here) saw this as having the potential to give an 85% downside from those levels and a potential 5 bagger... and they’re all down 70% 2 weeks later! IMO the risk/reward means this should be treated very much as a speculative bet now, rather than forming a significant portion of any investor’s total portfolio

Yes, I agree they are completely separate aspects - so why would I expect an RNS saying that the major had walked away from a deal when there was no deal to walk away from? If I walk out of a shop without buying something I was interested in it’s not like I have to go around telling everyone about it!