Member Info for Kev7722

Beggar - the calculations have always been outstanding... I believe the current SP is a reflection of the reality that there is a high likelihood that BPC wont realise the potential value of that oil, due to a number of factors largely outside of their sphere of control

Not likely to be a leak (IMO), just a high value buy going through and people jumping on the bandwagon. I think the risk/reward play remains exactly the same now as it did last week, and people should invest (or not) based on their own analysis of that.

The thing that continues to surprise me with these kind of one-day jumps is how often people are sucked in and caught on spikes - anyone that saw this for what it was and traded it yesterday could be back in, probably by the end of the week, the same number of shares that they sold, plus 25% their proceeds still sat in their trading account

Short answer - I didn’t... I decided to take my own advice and view this as what it likely was; a perfect one-time opportunity to get out.

I’ll of course be keeping an eye on developments over the next few days so feel free to kick me if this is a leak and I’ve given away my golden tickets; based on having been in here for a long time though, I don’t think I have.

Why would it bounce now? The excitement’s over, they’ve spiked everyone they wanted to...

This is bizarre... how leaky do we think BPC is? I’m tempted to sell my remaining holding in all honesty - if there’s no news then for those of us essentially sat on a sinking ship we’ve just been offered a lifeboat!

“Oh so what about our buyer yesterday, he just thew £35k into the market for the fun of it...”

Yes, probably! It’s been drifting for weeks, so it probably hit someone’s entry point.

Cheers Troajan

Spot the deliberate mistake... I meant of course in addition to how much you can sell it for when it's out of the ground - that's important too ;)

Spot on - it's really just a combination of how much it costs you to get it out of the ground, how much you can get out of the ground, and how fast you can get it out of the ground... bearing in mind that those three variables are not mutually exclusive (for example, if you find a way to get it out faster/more efficiently - like a 2nd line - then it should cost less per ton to get it out).

Out of interest, is there a point in the timeline where we would expect the SP to start tracking the spot price of Nickel more closely? Also - what is the best site to get a live spot price for Nickel?

I’d be happy with 10% - after listening to the interview I thought the renewed optimism might push this back up into the 90’s by close of play tomorrow...

As much as I like all the optimism on here recently I do wish some people would calm down with all their, ‘This will 5 bag tomorrow’ ‘£10+ on an RNS’ nonsense though - I agree with others here that have said its actually pretty irresponsible and shouldn’t be encouraged (although anyone buying in based solely on posts here probably deserves what they get)

But they will almost certainly get their 1p entry... AIM shares tend to drift on no news, and this is certainly no exception

We see speeding tickets issued all the time - some justified, some disappointing and arguably unnecessary... I can't recall many instances where a company has issued an anti-speeding ticket though, which this essentially is.

I’m in a similar position here - c. 813k shares at at average around 3.8p... sufficed to say that my ISA looks absolutely horrific at the moment!

Of course it’s going to pose a serious hurdle, as others have already said though this is a perfectly normal situation for a junior miner - certainly not the case that the only way anything will happen from here is via a takeover (although they may well look at selling the asset now that they have significantly de-risked the project). Other options they’ll be looking at would include a debt/equity arrangement and strategic investment/offtake arrangement, or maybe a mix of the above?

More concerning for me than the (relatively) tiny Mcap was the fact that the capex cost is higher than the NPV of the mine... to be fair to HZM they are doing all they can to sell the project on the basis of where the nickel market is going (other projects going offline short-medium term, little ‘new’ competition, certainly in the timeframe HZM are working to, significantly higher demand over the medium term).

For all their efforts though the fact remains that the nickel price is not where they want it to be, and that is one of the fundamental drivers here.

With all due respect those comments about the capital outlay suggest to me a lack of understanding of the junior mining sector... no junior miner is expected to fund the build cost without 3rd party support... that’s the point of the feasibility study.

Last week I was reading the FARN trial update with a big smile on my face, then 40% is immediately wiped off the SP. Today I'm reading the FS at 7am with the same huge smile on my face, and it happens all over again... I give up, I clearly have no idea what I'm doing :/

Estimated post-tax Net Present Value1 ('NPV') of US$401 million, based on $14k/t

I’d say it’s a pity I wasn’t in sooner... but I was ;)

Scully - if I were in your position I'd dump my (probably substantial by now) holding in BPC and load up here ;)

Much easier to see the disparity between SP and value here (IMO)... wish my average price was closer to yours though, I under-estimated the severity of the drop so I'm sat on about 94p. Not at all worried though, which is a nice position to be in for a change.

‘It has to be this year’, said holders every year for the last 8 years... of anything the recent RNS sounded less confident a deal was just around the corner than the ones in 2011 said!

Have to say I agree with you... I've read all the comments, re-read the RNS a few times, read the previous releases in relation to the trials and I'm still puzzled - the wider market was obviously expecting fireworks, but that update was about as good as I was personally hoping for.

Have topped up again today to bring my average down to the mid 90's, but I am quite overweight here now so hoping for a fairly quick rebound to the 110 range in order to rebalance my portfolio