Member Info for Kev7722

Dan - it's actually "YODA", not Yoda... it's an acronym. What do you think it stands for?

PI - I think my investment platform's broken... I was expecting the balance to have trebled overnight. I'm starting to worry that re-mortaging the house to load up here wasn't the way to go after all.

It was mentioned here a few days ago, but I believe that YODA stands for ‘Yale (University) Open Data Access (Project)’. The university essentially acts as a gatekeeper in relation to requests for access to clinical trial data; the thinking being that a lack of transparency in the sector leads to unnecessary repeating of trials, poorly informed healthcare decisions etc.

I think if you took the PASPA repeal out of the equation then holders would be targeting 2p+ on results that showed the company continuing to move in the direction it has over the past 2/3 years...

The margins on the type of betting that Webis are involved in are very thin, but one would still assume that they are scalable relative to turnover. In recent history Webis' issue seems to have been finding a way of translating their rapid revenue growth into profit.

With PASPA being repealed, and that gradually flowing down to the relaxation of gambling laws at state level, the hope was (is) that the company could capitalise on their position as an 'established player' in the market... the spike in SP earlier this year was investors essentially gambling (pardon the pun) on news along the lines of points 2 or 3 from ravespass' post.

Any news of a buyout/squeezeout etc. would re-rate the SP, but I'm not particularly hopeful, so I'm staying with a 2p target for the short term... at least until they work out how to make the company profitable.

Re. the fixed odds betting via their hub - to be honest I'm not sure why they haven't stated their intention to go down that route already - if I was running the company I'd want to leverage my position in the market to do exactly that. Diversification and better margins - what's not to like?!

If you genuinely think those are the only 3 possible scenarios for results day then there’s a good chance that you’re in for a pretty disappointing week.

2 more days until that massive, life changing RNS! Well I’m off to go hand my notice in now, have a good day all

My guess - more of the same! Massive revenue, which will look even more impressive thanks to the dire situation playing out at home re. Brexit. As they say though - turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, and there won’t be any profit.

I have to say that it has been an incredibly frustrating share to watch this year. Factors entirely outside of their control placed them front and centre in a brand new market worth billions; they were pretty much handed a license to print money! Instead the BOD seemed content to sit back and wait for the monster take out (probably by a UK high street name, given how the FOBT legislation has played out) that never materialised.

In terms of SP - any notable revenue growth, coupled with a token profit and favourable fx rate should push this back up to 2p. Not that it will be much comfort to all those spiked at the start of the summer kind...

Lol - I get your point, but my last two investments both dropped on good news... so I've come to the conclusion that I no longer have a clue what actually constitutes 'good' news

It's a pity the spread is cr*p, because otherwise I'd be trading the hell out of this right now

<sarcasm>

Thanks for this brynjon - something most of us on these boards are aware of, but still useful to see it playing out in actual figures per your fantasy portfolio... it's very rare that the market hasn't already priced in all available news, and fortunately it's also very rare that people ramping on these boards are in possession of price-sensitive information that the rest of are aren't.

Most of the time I just find these off-topic ramps vaguely annoying (especially the, 'Oops, I posted this on the wrong board' ones that conveniently still happen to mention the ticker for no apparent reason).

The ones that I do however find pretty disgusting are the rampers that suddenly appear off the back of a disastrous RNS saying, 'Buy XYZ now to recover your losses'... as we had on this very board a few months back. Preying on the heightened emotions of people that have potentially just lost substantial amounts of their life savings in order to cream your 10% - completely out of order IMO

I still view Jap results as being an important milestone personally... yes, as a stand-alone set of results we expect them to be 'rubbish', but when viewed through the lens that we now have thanks to analysis of the European trials we're expecting/hoping that they will further support the link between steroid use and success.

In other words, further confirmation of what we already know/suspect may not add much value to the SP on release of the Jap results, but unless people haven't been paying any attention to what's going on I cant see them having much negative impact on SP either... what they should provide us with is more confidence ahead of Yoda that the company can bring a viable product to market

The bigger the data set the more confidence we can place in any statistically significant patterns.

If the BOD genuinely believe that there is now a massive disparity between the value of HZM and its mcap then that's not the worst idea I've ever heard... although maximising shareholder value is really much more of a long-term priority, so they'll likely to want to keep hold of the cash for now regardless

Have to admit I’m a little confused about the change in sentiment here... no news, so presumably it’s not a leak. And it’s against a backdrop of oil prices falling (now at an 8-month low), and forecast demand being revised down by opec.

Yes, Zengah - you're talking about a squeeze out scenario at 90% control, which is different to being mandated to make a cash offer for the remaining shares at 30% control

Quite right Dan - I stand corrected.

Section 9.5 (a) of 'The Takeover Code' states:

"An offer made under Rule 9 must, in respect of each class of share capital involved, be in cash or be accompanied by a cash alternative at not less than the highest price paid by the offeror or any person acting in concert with it for any interest in shares of that class during the 12 months prior to the announcement of that offer."

Someone better informed please feel free to correct me, but I'm not sure they could currently buy this out at £2.50

My understanding is that once they pass the 30% voting control threshold then they would need to make a cash offer at the 12-month high price (c. £8.90)

Investinvalue - my only (minor) concern is if the Japan results cast any doubt over the link between outcome and corticosteroid use, rather than further confirming.

Personally I'm not expecting that outcome, and am heavily invested here so certainly don't want it. In reality though everybody is hoping and expecting for Jap result to support what we already suspect at this stage, and there is still an outside chance that they wont.

They may well over-inflate the target, but nobody's really disputing the fact that there's going to be a huge shift in the EV market over the next few years... or the impact that will have on demand for raw materials

Beggar, it sounds like we're pretty much on the same page re. BPC.

I've always viewed this as a high risk / high reward scenario... e.g. something with a 10% chance of an outcome that would push the SP from 2p up to say 50p is a fantastic risk-weighted investment to be in for a small sum, but definitely not something you'd want to bet the house on.