Member Info for Kev7722

Yes, it should be bid/offer on spot (current) and nickel futures

FWIW I'm pretty sure it'll go back below 2p at some point before any more news is released... as with other LTH's I've been following this for long enough to pick up on the trading patterns

That was exactly what I took from the interview and RNS too... I think people may just be confusing the fact they expect to share some initial findings in Q4 with the full results from YODA in Q1

Thanks Dan, I did see the interview but might go and re-watch to refresh my memory...

My point was that the primary purpose of YODA was to determine the most effective delivery method. With that in mind it is of course possible that the initial findings could contain different positive news to that which everyone is expecting or even, in the best-case scenario, two pieces of good news (i.e. we've got final confirmation of the impact corticosteroids have on Traumakine AND we have identified the most effective way of administering Traumakine).

From 22/10 RNS:

"o understand the reduced biomarker response to Traumakine administration, even where corticosteroids were not administered in the INTEREST study, a new FP-1201-lyo pharmacokinetic/dynamic study, YODA, is already underway in approximately 50 healthy volunteers. This will determine the optimum mechanism of administration to achieve a full biomarker response with first results expected in Q4 2018. The YODA study may also be extended to examine concomitant use of Traumakine and corticosteroids to get final in vivo evidence for corticosteroid interference of interaction activity."

I don't think they will - I read the RNS as YODA was already going ahead to look at the delivery method, and that now they suspect steroid interference they may be expanding the remit of the study to prove that is the case... presumably a much more cost-effective solution that commissioning a separate study focussing on steroid interference alone

Any idea what impact YODA alone will have on the SP?

My understanding was that the purpose of YODA is to try and find the most effective way of administering Traumakine, with a possible secondary goal of confirming that steroids impacted the phase III trial. Even discounting the steroid interference the phase III results weren't as good as they had expected - does that mean that following a positive YODA outcome we'll essentially be back to commissioning a new phase III trial, albeit expecting a better set of results?

Obviously the SP was still a lot higher than today before the initial phase III results were announced, but to me it feels like a long road back to £8+... just trying to ascertain how long

We must have been reading different RNS’ if you think that’s going to cause a 1’400% rise... (facepalm)

Give it a few weeks and buy more at c. 2p IMO... I agree 4p + will be back, but probably not until Feb/Mar next year at the earliest.

Obviously DYOR though

Why bottom drawer it until Feb? This has already risen much higher than I was expecting based on those results... why not take your profits and buy back in after xmas when the price is back around the 2-2.5p mark?

Someone interfered with our gradual drift to 1p at the start of November by someone actually buying some shares... Cue our resident DJ promising everyone a massive RNS and the SP "rocketing to 20p" on November 22nd.

At least those who bought into the temporary madness are 'only' 15-20% underwater at present...

But it is just potential... my question remains why those kind of plans and discussions werent taking place ahead of a decision on PASPA - they were perfectly poised to make the first move on a successful outcome, this should have been at 10p back in June.

Inclined to agree with all of the below - I think it will drift down in the short term and a definite buying opportunity below 1.5p as long as you’re prepared to hold them for a bit

I think it's safe to say that people are allowed to change their views over time, based on current information and recent SP action... infact I'd say it's a pretty poor strategy not to!

More recently I'd say that Pred's been pretty consistent in his view on the SP action. Sufficed to say that anyone following that advice could have made a fair bit of money too (I know... isn't hindsight a *****). For example:

Oct 29th: tern has bounced of ,14p several times and has done ok recently in bear market. ..wonder if anybody got in as I mentioned it on the tern board. ..tern back the clock .lol . right last post on this board.

Oct 27th: I know it's small crumb of comfort to those with an average of say 40p but it does give a bit of hope. .. playing the 14p mark for trading was the way to go. ..let's hope these bearish conditions will soon come to an end throwing up opportunity

Oct 24th: listen up everybody if it breaks 17.5 then 19p on the cards. .great if anybody played the golden rule of buying at 14p in this stock. Impressive so far in bear market.

To be fair the only reason that announcements like today's results are seen as being an anti-climax is because of all the people on these boards constantly ramping.

You look at pretty much any AIM-board and they are littered with people who think the SP is going to triple overnight and we'll all be drowning in champagne... the reality is that probably 75%+ of the companies listed on AIM aren't going to make you money over time - most will probably lose you money.

Generally speaking an AIM listing is seen as a route for a company to raise capital, so by definition they're going to be high risk / high reward... against that backdrop a 'boring' set of results like this isn't so bad at all really.

More or less exactly what I was expecting... which is something of a disappointment in itself. I see very little justification for 4p in here, and it’s certainly not going to 10p without more news on California.

I think you answered your own question Kwota - at the minute what they are missing is profits. Turnover is great, but the area that Webis currently specialise in (pari-mutuel betting) offers very small profit margins.

They needed the multi-million pound turnover in order to make the company viable... they've got it, and I'm confident that they'll continue to grow it into next year. What investors will be looking for now is a sign that they are able to translate that turnover into anything better than a negligible profit.

A bit of both I’d say - there’s ever reason to expect a reasonable set of financials... big increase in turnover and a small profit. I wouldn’t get too excited about the buy out rumours though, people have been saying a buyout or a squeeze out is imminent since May

Medium-term outlook for Nickel is looking increasingly worrying to be honest - BASF have announced that they are planning to use less than half the amount of nickel per electric battery going forward... if others follow suit that will significantly impact future demand. Add to that the ongoing US / China issues and the fact that production in Indonesia means there will likely be a nickel surplus next year, and some analysts are now predicting a medium-term target of $8’000

Fair point - but if you're right then (at least in my opinion) YODA is a poorly-conceived 'code name' for the trial, given that it is also a generic name attached to a large number of clinical trials for which the data is essentially made available for peer review.