Member Info for Kev7722

I'm trying to picture Markku Jalkanen's next Proactive interview, in which he ends every other sentence with a 'BOOM'...

The last 15+ half-yearly trading updates have all said, 'We are still working on securing a deal' - pretty much a word for word, copy and paste job... surely you don't actually expect the next update to say anything different?

Not sure what the current breakdown of shareholders looks like, but surprised that PI's haven't at least tabled a resolution to have SP removed from office... even if it failed it would be hard for the board not to at least acknowledge their failure to keep the owners of the company informed.

I think that selling Araguaia for a good price rather than a full takeover would probably be the best possible outcome for shareholders. As Moneyman has already said, that would likely provide an immediate return to shareholders (either via a special dividend or a buyback), as well as significantly reducing the reliance on 3rd party financing of Vermelho.

£15mil was raised in Feb '18 and a lot has happened since then - not all of it good, "This funding will allow us to accelerate preparations for the anticipated market launch of Traumakine and also expedite our clinical development activities for Clevegen."

Don't take for granted that it's all funded, we don't know that. All we know is that the raise should have been sufficient to fully fund before any of the issues with the phase III trials were identified.

Good to see some positive momentum, but I'm not sure about a leak... apart from arguably the 8:53 trade these buys are really nothing to get excited about.

It's definitely a move in the right direction, but I'm going to hold fine on my 'BOOM' until it's up another 75% to pre-BFS levels...

Agreed - I think if one thing is for certain then it's that the company will be in a very different place by the summer to where it is currently... probably with some twists and turns along the way.

Dan - my understanding was that the RAAA was originally running parallel to the phase III ARDS studies, but looking at different patient groups entirely.

The trials were put on hold once the issues with the ARDS studies became apparent, but I'm not confident that YODA and a subsequent phase III ARDS trial will do much to de-risk the INFORAAA trials... that may well be the case, and if so then it would have proved to be a sensible move to pause those trials.

Of course, if that is the case then they may need to scrap any progress that was made with the RAAA studies and start from scratch with different patient criteria... in much the same way as a new post-YODA ARDS trial?

Just wanted to circle back to something that people on this board seem to have kicked into the long grass in recent months...

Presumably once the full YODA and Japan results are released then another thing that Faron will be looking to do is recommence the phase II/III trials into whether Traumakine can be used to treat RAAA patients... again, more potential for future upside, more costs involved in determining if there is potential for future upside... more short-term pressure on the cash balance.

Jim Mellon’s dad is Sir James Mellon; it’s his dad that’s on the BOD so you’re actually both correct

Zen - if your post history is a reflection on your portfolio then I'd strongly recommend diversifying rather than buying more FARN stock... especially if you do really control c. 3% of the stock.

FWIW I do agree that you are probably on to a winner, which is why I'm also invested here, but I've seen far too many horrific outcomes from 'sure thing' small caps in my time. I think there's still far more than a negligible amount of risk attached to this stock, I wouldn't bet the house on it.

Dan - I take your point about releasing an incomplete report just to hit a deadline, and I'm inclined to agree... but somewhat ironically that's exactly what they've done today with YODA.

Yes, they’d already commissioned YODA to look at delivery of the drug before they became aware of possible corticosteroid interference. As such the original RNS suggested that they were hoping to share some initial findings in Q4 but may try to widen the remit to look at the steroid impact.

Nothing surprising in this RNS re. YODA therefore, and good to know that the study is on track time wise. Unfortunate slippage on Japan results, but as we’re now not expecting that data to add anything new I’d hope it doesn’t have a significant impact on the SP.

Exactly - this could well re-rate on partner news, but the reason it looks like a bargain to some is that there’s a lot of uncertainty priced in now... YODA outcome, new trials, not enough cash to see this to market without a placing or a partner (and on what terms will a partner come on board if they do so before all the approvals are granted?)

Unfortunately money doesn’t grow on trees

"The authorisation consists of up to 6,206,000 shares in the aggregate, which corresponds to approximately 20 per cent of the existing shares and votes in the Company."

Reassuring if you’re looking for a commitment not to drastically dilute shareholdings, only seems to leave capacity to raise c £3.5m via RI... so hopefully they manage to partner up before they start getting desperate 🤔

"They also mad it clear that not a huge amount of stock could be issued."

New stock? If the intention was to reassure shareholders then it doesn't seem like a particularly wise move... if they do start to run out of money doesn't that tie their hands to some extent re. raising finance? Not that any of us would really want them to be placing at 60p per.

Is the £6.10 just plucked from thin air or an actual target price? It's quite a specific figure so I'm just curious to know if there's any maths behind it.

Don't forget to file the TR-1 if you're still buying Zen - I'm sure that would give a few people here some comfort when they come to topping up...

Agreed - perfectly acceptable to point out when the wording in an RNS has been misinterpreted (be it intentional or not). Completely unacceptable to attack someone for doing that.

We may all have different levels of optimism here, different takes on the information given in the RNS, but we should at least try and start with what they’ve actually told us... otherwise we might as well just start saying that Faron have cured cancer?!

Don't get me wrong - I have the upmost respect for anyone prepared to back up their assertions with their own money, and if Zen really is on the verge of having to declare a position then when that TR-1 drops I will at least be going back and reading all their recent posts in a new light... for me though this is very much a 'hold' rather than a 'buy' at present.