Member Info for Kev7722

It can affect people’s decision on whether to buy or not, as clearly seen below.

It's certainly interesting - I took the opportunity to sell about a quarter of mine at 66.5p... just have a feeling that there's no news imminent (I.e. next week) that will rocket the SP

The more time that passes without news on Japan, YODA results and the way forward for aT the more likely the next news will be that we’re running out of cash... IMO at least

News is coming, but it won’t be coming later today... there’s also a chance that it won’t be the news everyone saidses to be expecting

I placed a limit order at 69p first thing so I could trade up my holding, precisely because this was a P&D... didn't trigger though :(

Well then... that was a lot of fuss about nothing

Most people will likely be averaging closer to £1 - I doubt they'll be too excited about checking in today to discover they're marginally less worse off than they were yesterday.

Price-sensitive news is likely on a number of fronts during Q1, we'll see where the chips lie soon enough

Personally I'm not pinning my hopes on the Japanese data, or on a successful Japanese tie up going forward unless/without further modifications to Traumakine. Funnily enough it was the December 5th RNS that you referenced which effectively deals a hammer blow to the Japanese market.

"This suggests that together the C/T mutation and Traumakine treatment is the most favorable combination for patient outcome and interferon treatment efficacy...

...The prevalence of this unique polymorphism* is around 30-35% among Caucasians, 40-45% among African origin and 10% in Asian populations, indicating a target population of around one third of ARDS patients in Europe and North America for whom Traumakine treatment could potentially be most effective and life saving"

"Even though the company have confirmed shares are worth 1p people are still paying 4.5p,,, on that basis I am also going to pay 4.5p a share"

You see the problem with this logic, right?

Which news are you expecting this month? Full YODA or Japan results, or both? I'm going to assume that you aren't expecting the next piece of news to be a cash call

This is the most bizarre situation I can recall seeing - I'm not usually a fan of shorting stock but in this case they've literally given a license to print money... the worst case scenario for anyone shorting this is 3.5p is that they'll have to pay 1p for the stock, but really the stock is worthless - the initial RNS stated that and the response to the price rise reconfirmed, it couldn't be any clearer.

Horrific situation for any LTH's, but anyone trying to trade this is the last few days knew the risks... tulip bulbs... bitcoin

This is the most bizarre situation I can recall seeing - I'm not usually a fan of shorting stock but in this case they've literally given a license to print money... the worst case scenario for anyone shorting this is 3.5p is that they'll have to pay 1p for the stock, but really the stock is worthless - the initial RNS stated that and the response to the price rise reconfirmed, it couldn't be any clearer.

Horrific situation for any LTH's, but anyone trying to trade this is the last few days knew the risks... tulip bulbs... bitcoin

Really all anyone watching on the sidelines has missed out on thus far is a substantial paper loss... that said, this does seem to be holding nicely in the 50-55p range.

"So Glencore have accepted shares instead of payment it seems..."

Funnily enough I was looking at it from the opposite angle - following the award of the construction license, and the impact that had on the SP, an issue of new shares at 1.875p seems like a gift to me. I believe it represented a 17% discount to yesterday's close, and a price that this share is unlikely to fall back to going forward (IMO).

If it was HZM's decision to make then presumably they felt it was in everyone's interests to hold on to the cash.

I think you’ve got a reasonable handle on where we currently are - one of their first explanations, and the primary purpose of the YODA study, was that the method of solubilisation was having an impact on the effectiveness of the treatment... that’s now been discounted. The current thinking is that there are a number of reasons why the drug wasnt as effective as hoped - steroid use bring one of them. The others I believe are the high number of patients with pneumonia and the fact that the drug is only effective on some people (around a third of Caucasians, more Africans and very few Asians)

I agree with Mani - Latino's post is balanced and recommended by myself.

As I mentioned yesterday, all I have found in the recent official communications from Faron is that Japan results are now due 'early 2019', and the remaining findings from YODA are due 'Q1 2019'. Neither of these statements guarantees imminent news, or news by the end of the month... certainly neither guarantees any news on a partnership is imminent.

I have a feeling that burn rate was based on the actions that management took to preserve cash when they knew the phase III trial wasn't going well, so it's probably reasonably accurate to apply that rate historically. My guess is that with YODA, another trial looming, Clevegen progressing etc. the burn rate is going to be higher now and going forward, not lower.

Hi Scully - FWIW my average is about 10p higher than yours and I'm still pretty confident that I'll be in profit this year... as long as you're not holding out for the promised £50 a share then I have a feeling you'll probably be fine.

Results of which trial will be sending this through the roof? Japan (due 'early 2019', not necessarily meaning Jan) are unlikely to have much impact in isolation, and the remaining findings from YODA (due 'Q1 2019', again not necessarily meaning Jan) will hopefully add enough weight to the steroid interference theory to cue up a new trial on ARDS patients...

The latter would be good news, and should have a positive impact on the SP, but any partner coming on board before the drug is fully proven and de-risked is going to push for much more favourable terms - so IMO we're either looking at additional fundraising or a worse deal than in the initial trial had been a success.

Still a lot of scope for recovery here, but I'm not paying much attention to people who say this will 50-bag or 100-bag this year... it wont.

The last time the SP drifted down to c. 1.1p it triggered a wave of buys, so there may at least be an opportunity to get out for around the 2p mark coming... thinking that if I get that opportunity again I may well take it now