Member Info for Kev7722

RB - hopefully you’re reading the sarcasm in some on those responses? Nobody’s listening to Woodstock, that kind of activity should result in a ban IMO.

Personally I think 40p will be tested tomorrow, but obviously DYOR as always

Unlikely they'd book a $3bn contingent liability - accounts are prepared under IFRS I believe, so IAS 37 would apply.

Indivior will argue on the basis that they believe payment is unlikely and/or that a settlement will be reached for a much lower figure. Much more likely that they will up their provision based on revised legal costs and/or what they view to be a realistic settlement figure.

A clarification RNS issued tomorrow would probably rocket this now

I agree - been watching all morning.

Dead cat to 40p IMO, well oversold now... I'm in for £9k at c. 24p to back up my assertion

Hi Mani,

My guess is that it would depend on so many factors that we as relative outsiders wouldn't be able to determine what would represent a 'good' deal or not - either way I'm sure that the RNS would present it as a 'good' deal.

Definitely the level of upfront investment required would be a major factor. Other factors that I imagine would play into how good a deal we are able to negotiate would be how many interested parties, whether there are any similar solutions under development by competitors (one slight concern of mine on Clevegen after reading the article posted yesterday) and whether we are in a strong enough negotiating position to walk away from a 'bad' deal... the latter is obviously dependent on our ability to raise finance through other means

Mani,

Re. the percentage - I posted the below on December 6th, and personally I'm still optimistic we could negotiate something a bit better than RENE, based on Faron's assertions that we are in exploratory talks with multiple parties:

"Reality starting to set in here for most - a new trial seems like the only option to take this forward, and at what cost (time & financial)?

I still think a partnership agreement that gives us a high single-digit percentage of the total revenue is a likely outcome at this stage, if it means the drug being fully funded through to market. That's still a potential €20m of revenue per year for the European market, and scalable if the drug is effective amongst Caucasians and Africans."

It's unfortunate, albeit unsurprising, that instead of engaging in a sensible discussion re. the structuring of a partnership arrangement you revert back to dismissing it out of hand with one of your LOLs or BOOMs, then proceed to bury the post with 3 or 4 nonsense ones.

You should care more about the potential risks Zen, you're clearly invested here at some level

I say 'back' to - obviously we were never in a £2.50+ range, but without significant work to determine whether Traumakine is viable for the other 2/3rds of ARDS patients I think the value here will be constrained by the fact that it's no longer a 'one drug cures all' solution

I agree that the further on we are the more expensive it gets for a partner... that's why in an ideal world we wouldn't have need partner funding to get us through a new Phase III trial.

And 'global' or not, my point still stands - initial partner investment will be relative to the costs required to progress through the trials and take the drug to market. Still great news for Faron if/when it lands, because at this point what we need is external support to help us get the drug to market so that people (us and a partner) start making money off it.

Anyone who thinks that a partner is going to swoop in and drop a $200m shareholder windfall so we can all cash out happy in a month or two however is just deluding themselves - it's a long slog back to the £2.50+ range... there is no magic money tree here, etc.

It’s fair to say that they are not directly comparable based on the share price or number of shares in issue, but Mani’s point about how such an agreement would be structured is absolutely correct and the RNS is well worth a read to get a clear understanding on that.

Contrary to what others here may believe, and parter agreement would not be for a massive cash windfall on day one, it would be for an amount to cover the first states of trials, with milestones payments to cover the cost of progressing the drug to market, based on key deliverables being met. The vast bulk of the deal would likely be back-loaded as a percentage royalty payment one the drug is on the market.

This is where the initial trial failures cause Faron issues - parters coming onboard while trials are ongoing will be looking to significantly de-risk their investment exposure by structuring the deals such that most of the money is paid out only when (/if) they themselves are making money from the drug. That’s just business 101 in my opinion.

Also hope you're not too deep in TERN - placing today was very unwelcome news; fortunately I've been on the sidelines looking in since it bounced nicely off the 14p resistance a while back...

Pred, even though you took WEB back down again it's still a great share to trade... even accounting for the laughable spread it moves 30-40% on next to nothing on a fairly regular basis!

With very few exceptions of note FARN on the other hand seems determined to hold around the 60p mark, and may well do for a few more weeks at least now that the financing issue and results from complete and ongoing trials have all been kicked back another quarter

Really? All it tells me is that the placing was at market value...

Not really an issue for us either, given how close to spot they were sold we can always pick them up on the open market if we want to avoid being diluted.

“He may be ramptasic but he's not doing for show”

I can’t disagree with this comment - I personally think Zen’s ability to filter out every word that isn’t 100% positive is bordering on comical, but he’s absolutely earned the right to be bullish on Faron’s prospects. It would take so much effort to fabricate all this buying that I have no doubt at all he’s building a sizeable position here.

Zen, that’s meant as a backhanded compliment - I genuinely hope this multi-bags, for both our sakes... if you do ever want to diversify I’m also in a couple of other AIM shares that I’m very bullish on as LTHs

You could obviously have price sensitive news at any time, regardless of whether directors were frozen out or not... the insider trading rules only relate to information that the directors already have in their possession. For example, if by sheer coincidence the Jap results were made available to Faron the day after director trades it would have no bearing on them releasing the news.

To be fair, Faron never said once that jap results would be delivered in Q1 - they only said 'early 2019', which others have chosen to interpret as Q1. They have also been consistent in saying that they can't commit to a specific timeframe for those results because they are reliant on a 3rd party to provide them with the data.

If you do want to be upset with the BOD then there's plenty of things they have actually said which have turned out to be garbage - for example that YODA results would be delivered in Q1, they said that then changed their minds. Or funding - it was literally only a month ago that they categorically said they would not be looking to the market to raise funds, because those funds would be coming from a partner, and yet here we are one month and one placing later...

Obviously nothing in there has managed to put a dent in the good ship Zen... but then I wasn't expecting it to - there's more than enough positive words in the RNS to cut and paste round the bad bits, insert the odd 'boom' etc. etc.

I was wondering who was going to bite and flag this up... as far as RNS's go I think they did a pretty reasonable job of burying the bad news in with all the forward-looking statements.

I'm still choosing to focus primarily on what I see at reassurance that Traumakine remains a viable solution to enough ARDS patients, but it's hard to ignore the fact that they've had to kick the can further down the road in terms of funding both projects - when read in conjunction with the recent interview this has to be because they failed to secure a partner before needing the cash.

Also hard to ignore the YODA results slippage, although they were obviously trying to gloss over that... but as has been mentioned before, not the first time they've failed to hit a deadline they've talked confidently to

Apology accepted Zen, but really you owe Mani a bigger one... and maybe try piping down a bit going forward?