Member Info for Kaneonaim

Zak Mir 9p target

https://www.share-talk.com/share-talk-bulletin-board-heroes-wednesday-20th-january-2021/#gs.qmxmce

Not sure of their average but they hold a fair amount !
Shareholder Number of Ordinary Shares Percentage held (%)
Bybrook Capital 206,438,717 29.68%
Premier Miton Investors 105,000,000 15.09%
Slater Investments 82,800,000 11.90%
Lombard Odier 55,000,000 7.91%

Not sure how they compare only 4,000 boepd production and 2,024m shares in issue. At present their market cap is £45m and I3e £42m only thing you could say is I3e is significantly undervalued at present!! Compared to these!

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 24,989 contracts to 317,308 in the week ending January 12 - an 11-month high

Long-only positions rose by 18,496
Short-only positions fell by 6,493

At 6.35

The grant in collaboration with BNI includes working with major scanner vendors (GE, Siemens, and Philips) to harmonise the way perfusion MRI data is collected and post-processed. The involvement of the major scanner vendors is exciting and very positive, and the Company looks forward to their continued collaboration and support.

Missed the boat lol!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/oil-markets-coronavirus-us-crude-inventory.html

From last operational update

Footnotes:

1. The Company can only pay a dividend out of distributable profits and the Company has retained losses. The Company is expecting to effect a reduction of share capital to create distributable reserves to offset the losses and create surplus profits. A reduction of share capital will require the approval of the shareholders and the UK Courts and it is estimated the process will take approximately two months.

· First dividend expected to be declared and paid in Q1 20211

Surely that means it’s announcement is imminent ?? Interested to know other’s thoughts and how much a reduction of share capital it will be?

Nice 540300 buy at 6.50 to finish the day

10% up on tsx

Copied from WHIreland report

For perspective, the company’s Serenity discovery and its Minos High and Liberator West prospects have a combined success-case resource potential and value of 332 million barrels of oil equivalent and 214.8 p/sh, respectively, based on our estimates.

Brent price: US$45/bbl 2021, US$50/bbl 2022, US$55/bbl 2023 US$60/bbl flat thereafter.
NGL price (at local sales point): 45% of Brent long term.
Henry Hub gas price: US$2.74/mcf 2021, US$2.55/mcf 2022, US$3.0/mcf 2023 flat thereafter.
Discount rate 10%.
1.31 US dollar / sterling.

Copied from the MIRABAUD report
EBITDAX: As illustrated in our P&L summary in Figure 12 (above), we forecast group EBITDAX of US$27m in FY21, rising to c.US$28m in 2022, and above US$37m in 2023. This is equivalent to healthy EBITDAX margins of c.35%-50%.

This was when price of oil was low since it has risen considerably

Someone is accumulating!!

6.40

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/barrelofoilequivalent.asp

Oil is measured in barrels and natural gas is measured in cubic feet. To help facilitate like-for-like comparisons, the industry standardized natural gas production into "equivalent barrels" of oil. One barrel of oil is generally deemed to have the same amount of energy content as 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas. So this quantity of natural gas is "equivalent" to one barrel of oil.

from the current share price. In terms of catalysts, we see the declaration of the company’s maiden dividend in Q1 as being key to proving the business model and attracting income-hungry investors. Meanwhile, new deal flow and/or progress in farming out Serenity would provide further out-of-the-blue upside, not to mention continuing strength in commodity prices (in particular domestic, AECO, gas)

Fortune favours the brave
Bloomberg ticker Share price p/shr Target p/shr
I3E LN 4.05 10.7 163% 700.1 841.1 37.1 50.3
Since i3’s two deals were proposed in H1 this year, realised oil and gas prices have risen materially, making the already discounted transactions look even cheaper. Edmonton Light oil prices have risen by over 100% and AECO gas c.65% since the effective date of the larger (Gain) transaction. Since the portfolios were acquired entirely unhedged, this has an immediate impact on group cash flow, with our FY20 operational CF forecasts more than doubling as a result. On the ground operations are also performing ahead of expectations, with production currently running at c.9,400 boepd. We forecast FY21 EBITDA of US$30m and FCF of US$17m, of which we expect c.US$4.9m to be paid out in dividends. At the current share price of 4.05p/shr, this implies an impressive yield of 13.3%. We reiterate our BUY stance with an updated 10.7p/shr target price.
Higher commodity prices bolster the coffers and underpin FY21 distributions: Consistent with the rise in forward strip prices we have updated our Q4 2020, FY21 and FY22 price assumptions (+21%, +4% and +3%, respectively on a blended basis). After also factoring in better than expected production figures, we estimate an additional US$6.8m of EBITDA over Q4, with FY21 and FY22 also increasing by 9% and 5%, respectively. To put this into context, the ‘extra’ cash flow in Q4 ‘20 alone more than covers our forecasted US$4.9m to be returned to shareholders next year in the form of dividends. Cash not earmarked for distributions will be used for growth, with the majority of capital likely to be allocated to acquisitions where returns are higher at present. With the company aiming to return some 30% of free cash flow to shareholders, further deals should incrementally boost i3’s already impressive >13% yield.
Completion draws a line under the transactions and allows the focus to shift to operations: To date Toscana had been managing the Gain assets under a management and administrative services agreement. Now that the Toscana transaction has completed, the assimilation of the assets should be seamless and immediate (all Toscana staff are being retained) and i3 can now focus on maximising the potential of the new assets. While our forecasts assume natural decline in production, we expect opportunities within the acquired portfolios to boost near term production. Some 200 boepd of Toscana production remains shut in following the drop in oil prices during Q1 this year which we expect to be brought back onstream in due course. Other easy wins, such as infrastructure debottlenecking and well workovers, have the potential to further up production over the coming months.
Valuation and share price catalysts: We have nudged up our target price by 7% to 10.7p/shr driven largely by our updated near term price assumptions (as before set at the midpoint between PDP and 2P NAV). This represents c.165% upside fr