1. One that is resilient to any challenges thrown at it, recessions, pandemics, supply chain problems, inflation problems online sweat shops, or whatever, nothing affects ABF or if it's affected it's all mitigated, no profit warnings like the now humbled Boo, ASOS or THG. This in essence are the charasteristics shown by a MOAT a very big and deep one.
2. The business I understand
3. The management you can trust, one which has now fired anyone even going through a pandemic.
4. Price that is right.
ABF is back with a special dividend and here is the outlook
The lower Group profit in the last two financial years compared to the 2019 financial year was driven by the extensive closure of Primark stores. All of our stores are now open and are mostly free of trading restrictions. There has been an extensive roll-out of vaccinations against COVID-19 in all of the markets where Primark operates and customers have returned to our stores in large numbers. Absent the reimposition of significant restrictions, we expect Primark trading to continue to improve and for sales to increase by at least the estimated £2bn of sales lost due to store closures last financial year. Primark will continue to expand its selling space next year, with the most stores being added in two of our key markets, Italy and Spain. The expected significant increase in sales should lead to a sharp improvement in Primark's adjusted operating margin, recovering to above 10%. Primark is not immune to the challenges of supply chain, raw material cost and labour rate inflation. However, we currently expect the impact of these to be broadly mitigated by the transaction currency gain arising from the weaker US dollar, improved store labour efficiency and lower operating costs.
We are seeing significant cost increases in energy, logistics and commodities in addition to the impact of widely reported port congestion and road freight limitations. Our businesses are working to offset the impact of these through cost savings. Where necessary, our food businesses will also implement price increases.
With the recovery in Primark's profitability, we expect the Group's effective tax rate to fall next year to a level closer to pre-COVID rates.
We will continue to invest in building the capacity and capabilities of all our businesses. We expect the improvement in Group profitability to deliver another year of strong cash generation.
Taking these factors into account, we expect significant progress, at both the half and full year, in adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share for the Group.
Dan knows it all ie how accountants can run a tech business and how to value such a tech business that is run by accountants, beauticians and marketeers
Another problem, say City insiders, is that London didn’t have the depth of expertise to analyse a stock billed as a part-conventional web retailer, part burgeoning tech company – its unit Ingenuity helps other companies develop e-commerce operations.
To pull off successful tech floats, London needs a solid base of analysts able to thoroughly research and guide investors, particularly when they are putting money into companies with huge growth ambitions but eye-watering losses. But there is also less incentive for brokerages to grow their tech expertise when so few companies are coming to market.
“ Have a read of this and take note of valuations”
This is exactly how the dotcom bubble played out people were valuing companies based on acronyms used in their description. AMZN survived but 1000’s of companies went bust. The companies in the article are not Apple to Apple comparison and I refuse to believe a company run by accountants can ever be a serious tech company in the long run
BTW I have
“ it was so that I could get considered and helpful advice”
Please elaborate and tell what precisely is not considered and helpful in my advice?
I have been helpfully giving the same advice for 4 months now, have a look at my history. In the meantime retail investors have lost billions had they taken my helpful advice they wouldn’t have been in this situation
current employees, past emoyees, agencies and christ, I've even sold to them.
They are currently recruiting hard across Linkedin too.
They r recruiting hard because they have to spend the pot of money given to them by SoftBank if they don’t the management will be fired
This normal during bubbles like when I was recruited during dotcom bubble all they asked me in the interview was do like software and done I was given a brand new car, laptop and mobile the next week with 2 yrs experience in the bag
The problem with THG is that they don’t have techs at the top to find out if the tech talent they are trying to recruit is genuine they are all just accountants or marketing ppl
“ I've just bought into a CDP at £150k a year and I work for a smallish company. Tech subscription, AI and AR is the future and many industries are miles behind the curve.
MM has been a bit loose here but it's no Quindel and Wirecard. The first was a ponzi and the second was absolutely rife with regulatory and compliance issues.”
Please do not try to use posh acronyms like CDP, tell us the numbers and that is what THG has failed to provide to the market. You can use all the posh words you want but I seriously doubt a company can be tech with accountants running the show
Daniel ek - Spotify
Andy Jassy- amzn
Are all serious technocrats who know what they are talking about
THG is just a fake
It’s a Ponzi part of SoftBank
It’s got serious governance issues
“ May be a stupid question, but what would they have to pay to take it private?”
As low as possible would be MM’s agenda
And that is why he has been doing antics that he has been doing
“ Is THG a fraud and worth even less? I don't think so.”
You will find out tomorrow and let us know when you have given up trading
They are calling it “ This kind of reasoning is straight out of the Quindell or Wirecard playbooks.”
I know of another playbook which similar ie Dick Fuld before Lehman collapse blamed everything on shorters and wanted drink their blood from their hearts while they were alive
“ You're trawling the comments section and posting on a Saturday night. Desperate mate.”
Thousands of investors would have saved themselves billions had they been as desperate as I am.
You either desperately put in the work before dipping your fingers into the stock or just gamble like vast majority on this board and then get stuck.
And then spend months and years on end bucking each other to no avail.
Look at Dan90 saw the sp falling below ipo, had no clue what he is buying and now is forced to become a long term shareholder
Before buying, one needs to be sure of Charlie mungers four filters
1. Do understand the business
2. Do you trust the management
3. Does the business have durable competitive advantage
4. Can you value the business and is it decent value
On all of the four above If dan90 had tried beforehand with desperation every single point would have failed
And now he is stuck
Out of the hundreds of comments I found less than 5 positive ones
Most independent commentators are negative on THG
THG are hardly comparable to Shopify. A much better comparison would be Occado.
Thats if the model actually works, so far they have demonstrated their ability to grow and have some impressive elements however they have yet to demonstrate their ability to generate real profit or cash generation.
Launched in a cloud of puffery with a prospectus issued in September that painted a vary rosy but opaque picture…. avoiding all mention of the business losing £480 million in the next 3 months. One red flag. Buying “boutique” hotels in Manchester, 2nd red flag. Buying the offices and warehousing then leasing them back to the Company on 25 year Leases, 3rd red flag. Four years of making net losses, in what should be a high margin business, 4th red flag. Purchasing for cash “Brands” unknown to the majority of us for high multiples of revenue 5th red flag ( buying with shares would be much less risky) and now we see him the Chairman floundering about because himself being the CEO he still can’t explain the business nor understand the figures and he’s totally out of his depth, 6th red flag. And the delusional thinking that if the IPO had been in New York everything would have been better, 7th red flag. And when the Chairman, CEO, Landlord and Hotelier starts rabbitting on about supportive wife, kids and family…..it’s hat and coat time !
Bank Robbery = flog it to the innocent capital via IPO/fund managers at a high price and buy it back at a low price and take it private.
The ex-CEO of Lehman Brothers was appropriately named. He too was blaming shorters before fuld’s company folded causing the greatest recession in history
He famously quoted, “ When I find a short-seller, I want to tear his heart out and eat it before his eyes while he's still alive”
Matt Moulding called shorters bank robbers just sounds as desperate as Dick Fuld was sounding in 2008
For those sound enough not to benefit from this experience you can read more here
Going to the doctor and lie like a star fish on the cold winter floor at 04:00 am sound mad
Is this money worth all this?
Desperate stuff from someone called dan90 who claims to be in the finance industry
Who knows many fund managers personally who are recommending buys on Boo, asc and THG
All he manages in the mean time is a minimum of 50% declines in share prices off all of his investments
And is now desperately begging others to buy from look fantastic so that the share prices rise back
The other day he was begging for access to the times and the telegraph articles beyond the pay wall
I cannot believe someone from finance industry is so penny wise pound foolish and his cunning strategy is to beg other shareholders to buy stuff from THG to prop it up
Just own up you have been wrong
And try to make money through hard work for a change
Here is the Ft article
Many investors invest Case in THG is that some day SoftBank would buy
Here is an FT article which states SoftBank shareholders are asking it to spend more on buybacks
This just means less money for if/when for THG
Also remember that SoftBank is a Ponzi scheme the more it gives back to it’s share holders the less money it has for keeping its Ponzi scheme going
The way it works is for eg it gave money to THG. THG then spends that money with SoftBank investee companies like autosoft
Autosoft then tries an IPO in another jurisdiction sighting other SoftBank investee companies like THG as it’s customers generating revenue, when infact its not real customers it’s just revenue generated by other investee companies of SoftBank
Once the IPO is flogged to mutual fund managers and pension schemes they use the capital to keep the Ponzi scheme running with other investee companies
The more money SoftBank gives back to shareholders the less it has for the Ponzi
I am just glad dan90 is learning to be humble
He wouldn’t have lost so much money had he learnt that 3-4 months ago on his boo, asc and THG bets
Anyway, what people are not talking about on this forum is that even after such a long interview investors are none the wiser on the profitability of THGs various divisions
All we heard is moaning from him about the share price
Long term investors don’t worry about share prices they worry about business performance in terms of top and bottom lines
Just saying we are doing great does not fill investors with confidence
The problem with these forums is that everyone is very young and does not have any experience of situations like these
Even CEO’s of bear sterns and Lehman brothers were saying they are doing very well a day before they folded
Investors need clarity on numbers which don’t have
Some gamblers took the punt that they will buy in the hope that SoftBank will come to the rescue but even they are under pressure from the big Ponzi scheme they are running
The news about these fickle low/no margin online business won’t be getting any better for the next year or two as we get out of the pandemic. Monetary policy is normalised, and stagflation really really sets in due higher mortgage, energy and general inflation
The comments are the best feature
Go look behind the scenes
Accounts running on Sage!
Just getting found out
He has come as a very vulnerable weak character despite is drugs fuelled body muscles
Just wait till the weekend press dissects all this to pick out points
He has just given the journalists material to write about
Does not bode well for the company
Just imagine what will be the impression on his employees who will be reading this
What does he want to communicate
Why is he scared of shorters when they are guaranteed buyers of his stock
Why would a CEO not be happy with Guaranteed buyers of their stock?
“” That’s the difference to world he had pre ipo”””
He took the money and does like giving control
Well then Don’t take the money
It’s not rocket science
probably the most incoherent interview ever given by a person who is head of a multi billion market cap