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I didn't say SNG is a flop: I wrote the trial was a flop (didn't meet any of its endpoints). If you look long enough at the data and analyze it in so many ways, you will end up seeing "something". That something won't help you much with your drug application.
It is true the independent review committee (doesn't look only at safety data) didn't stop the trial for futility in the interim analysis, but that doesn't translate automatically in efficacy. It means the trial does not meet the predetermined rules for stopping and can progress.
@Brighty
The language around the safety profile and the tolerability is standard and you can see this in any press release announcing a flop. If the drug was not safe (or had a positive benefit/risk ratio) it wouldn't even be on trials.
As regards the "trends", trends need to be sustained by clinical data (again, a positive result in a well designed trial that would test and confirm the statistical hypotheses).
Four years ago IMM's pivotal trial was negative and they also found encouraging results ("trend") in a subset of patients (here translated as "drug effective in this specific subset of patients due to X"). Four years ago the share price is around 5p and they haven't been able to start the new PIII.
The only positive sign here is the investment of Polygon. The rest, conjectures.
The whole post is admirably positive and optimistic. However, slightly misleading. Specially these two statements are pure wishful thinking:
"SNG001 is effective against all respiratory viruses, this is not a one trick pony, approval will lead to a revolution in respiratory health" and "it was the trial that failed not the drug".
As today, a randomized double-blind placebo controlled study is considered the “gold standard" to gain market authorization approval and the trial was negative.
I am sure RM and Team knew about these results for some days now - it makes me wonder whether there were some timely exits of decent volume last Friday, as there always are in these cases.
In the end, it is an IMM 2.0 all over again. The suspected delay in the results was another sign to consider, but it's always easy once in the known. This time I derisked enough to elegantly take the hit, but not enough to walk away in a good profit. This time around, the scientific data appeared to be more compelling, and there were some other positive indicators. That is true. Best wishes to all/JW
If the circumstances are such that the hiring doesn't make sense anymore, they won't be an offer after the selection process and there won't be a job. Only the offer is legally binding. This is the reality.
I reckon my very few messages in this forum are always to express my disbelief that the current price is (as I am writing this) 6 p above the placing price, apologies for that.
It's obvious that the value fluctuates on a daily basis, but as we approach the D-day more buys should take place in anticipation of a (possible, never certain) much higher future value. This in itself should drive the price up. Maybe not dramatically up, but definitely not down.
I don't agree recruitment completion was "priced in". Whoever works in this industry (pharmaceutical industry) knows that recruitment almost always lags and delays are absolutely normal. On that announcement, the stock value went up and triggered a few rather poor written Internet articles.
As somebody else mentioned previously, a delay in the recruitment would have impacted the value significantly.
Greetings
I usually read and do not comment, but I am truly amazed the price is still at these levels. I would have expected a much higher price in anticipation of results. Makes really no sense to me we had a higher value in August 2020 - and I understand that was during pandemic "sentiment peak", but nevertheless.
Greetings
There was a placing at 175 and as stagnated as it was, it definitely changed - not for the better as you can see. I was amazed by the price at the time but not anymore. Your point exactly? We need to meet in person one day so you’ll see how far for an hypocrite I am. I am still here reading how soon it will move on a daily basis.
I have over 100k shares since +3 years and my average is still higher than the current price which it’s undoubtedly “about to move”.
SNG is doing not that bad - unsure this was directed to me, if your average is in the mid 30s.
The idea behind this constant “about to move” is to drag in punters or just help the chat alive? There might be a reason.
Contrary to other cases where you can see how the share price slowly increases in anticipation of a read-out/other major event, the price of SNG is stagnated in the 145ish p (which is 1 pound less than it was in August last year!). It's definitely sentiment, but it's difficult to make sense out of it. I would have expected the same stagnation but around the placing level. In any case, sooner or later that will change.
Hi Moneymuch,
I appreciate your referenced posts and info, yet must say you have been predicting changes in the price for quite some time now and it hasn't happened. That undermines your message. As I mentioned in another post, I have been invested in EVG for quite some time (2017) and don't plan on selling any time soon.