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Drill Rig to Geolog Truck…
…the start of a new week as #HE1 continue drilling our primary targets at Tai. #exploration
https://twitter.com/Heliumone1/status/1422100857626271747?s=19
Well, what an enjoyable week for HE1's price. Not the RNS-influenced week I hoped for, but a positive week and a strong end to the week :) happy days.
Sat somewhat firmly in the stronger end of the trend range now, so hopefully that will act as a springboard to launch from if we get the RNS on Monday.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5clASTaU/
Anyone else wish they could skip the weekend and get straight to Monday morning?...
AgentB, no that's not entirely correct. I don't see us being "up and away" until perhaps 30-31p.
At the moment we're still as we were.
27p is most definitely a resistance (an important historical price being used as a milestone), which we have breached, but unless its a sustained breach, i.e closing above it for the day, or maybe two, then its just intraday noise as far as I'm concerned.
It's nice to see today's move, my portfolio is rather pleased, but, it's nothing significant in my book.
Pretty much BigPlan.
In a less TA manner I would state that nothing goes up, in a straight line, forever. Even with extremely exponential stocks such as Tesla et al, the price will always pull back eventually.
It's knowing this that means you can look for important historical prices that will likely act as inflections in the trajectory.
When a stock rises, let's say some huge move that breaks all trends (like here hopefully), you can either buy in as it's rising (FOMO), or wait for the inevitable pullback and subsequent consolidation. What is fascinating to me about market prices is that there are ALWAYS patterns, and you will find that even once a new high price has been reached the pull back and consolidation will fall in line with a historical trend or price support. This would then act as a potential buying opportunity.
Its simply down to the fact that stock prices are influenced by people, and people are creatures of habit. We knowingly and unknowingly gravitate to familiarity, and create narratives and expectations, and this unfolds in patterns in markets. Whether that be the price of Mars bars in shop, or price of a new Bentley, there's always patterns.
When it comes to selling (for profit), it almost the reverse of anything I've just said. You want to look at how far from the trend the price has traveller's, and as BigPlan said use RSI to give another validation to whether something is oversold. In Economics we talk about how many standard deviations a value is away from the mean. The more stnd dev's away from the mean, the more probable it becomes that the trajectory will reverse, and the larger the deviation the more risk of a larger correction.
For what it's worth I'm somewhat risk averse and tend to miss the very top often, but I make up by having made a habit of buying very low.
J
Last post and I'll beggar off.
This is my nearly-three-week-old chart (log). The price moves over the last few days have definitely been nice, but, we're still in the waiting room. Nothing's changed yet.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6cqEy4G8/
J
In all honesty though BigPlan I'm not really one for using TA to predict price action, at least not much, and certainly not in much detail.
I do however use it A LOT for understanding the relative value of stock prices, mainly in order for me to assess when to enter a market. I've said it before but charts are just historical records of past prices of a stock, and by studying how the price has moved over time you can pick up patterns that emerge, or identify prices that the market has reacted, sometimes repeatedly.
It's always each to his/her own, but I believe it is of higher importance to know WHEN to enter a market, rather than just WHICH market to enter.
J
Bigplan, I commented on your twitter, but will also add a little more here.
I actually agree in this instance with most of Wyndrum's view.
I would be in the camp that the ~27p double top has only been tested, rather than broken. I say this because though there were attempts above it it wasn't sustained in the close, and ended below, which is indicative. It suggests that the market wasn't buying that the equilibrium price should be above 27p.
I would, however, see it as probable, as you suggest, that a pull back to the ~24/25p support could be the next play whilst we wait for news. That would be a good place to make a new rally to break 27p.
It's all a game of testing what prices the market are willing to entertain, and this always works within a range.
A sustained break (a day or two) above the 27p area would make it very likely that the double top turns from resistance to a future support.
Some nice moves over the last couple of days have finally got us off the bottom of the trend and back to a slightly more reasonable level for where we are. If the current sp isn't already a bargain, the last week or so was definitely a great bargain buying opportunity, which I happily took part in :)
The news about Bayu-Undan has made this endeavor all the more exciting.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/K6mSGgcy/
After the excitement of the last few days I'm posting this log chart again to document where we are.
After falling to just short of the bottom trend on the 26th, the price has now lifted beautifully to rest at the trend I've labelled 'mid-price'.
It still seems to me that the price is being managed by Mr. Market through this price trend range that's been in place for weeks now. A sustained break of the top or bottom trend would signal the start of a path. I can only see the RNS providing that new direction.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/a0k9FGDt/
Again, no forecasts, the chart is over two weeks old, and the trend lines have not been changed. Make of it as you will.
J.
I investigated Bronte Cap. last night. They've got a horrible record when it comes to their short positions so there's little to learn from their short position in HE1.
Short trading is a good and important part of stock markets anyway, it helps keep things in check.
It's interesting isn't it @Glib?
Neutral trading range has been in effect since the 12th whilst we wait, but I find it very curious that on the last day of the week, in the final hours, the price was dropped below the trend. Not dropped to some arbitrary price, mind, but rather to an very clear and firm resistance at 21.5p.
Just musing here, but if there was bad news, why just drop the price to balance at a safety zone, and why do it at the end of the day? When bad news is due it is extremely common for MM's to push the price slightly over the trend (fake-out) to induce buying before they sell.
It feels to me like the MM's have dangled a little bait here to encourage some to sell, which if they true suggests there is some expectation of news next week. I'll go ahead and say positive news, too.
Tomorrow could be interesting.
J
Hmm, didn't think I'd be updating on this today. A curious close to the day, and week.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KFiJFM1s/
The price has been managed through a specific trend range since the 12th, so to break down below it, on the last day of the week, in the closing hours for that matter, is very curious. Looks like something is going to happen next week.
... It feels like bait to me...
Still four hours to go but it's hard to see anything happening so here's the chart for the week.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZvyXFnX9/
Tested the trend again this morning, but nothing more than that, which only strengthens the thought that this is the range through which the price is being managed for now. A sustained break above or below the trends will signal the start of the next leg of the journey. Hopefully(!) that will be as a result of the RNS, and we will break wildly to the upside :)
As always, make of it what you will.
J
PSA: The trend lines and chart are now 9 working-days old and have not been altered since the beginning.
This chart is well over a week old now but the price has definitely followed the trend while we await news that could give us a course change. The trends lines haven't been moved but the price is clearly staying within the bounds. Chart is accurate as of 13:21.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xOYkWYkD/
It's still worth saying, from my pov, that the overall equities market is still nervous and so it wouldn't surprise me at all to continue to see some red days for a little until we correct to the upside again. (FTSE100 - https://www.tradingview.com/x/6fY8UHQb/ )
As always, make of this what you will.
J
LSE a bit slow this morning, but KAV have released a good RNS on drilling. Tweet is here: https://twitter.com/KavangoRes/status/1417730917129392128?s=19
Since most of us here will have red on the screen today, across most of our equity investments, I thought I'd post a chart that highlights how the UK market as a whole is doing.
Currently the market is having a breather and we'll *probably* see the pullback continue for a little while. FTSE100 chart is posted below:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dSlkWXKx/
Just thinking that this overall market weakness will probably colour how good and bad news will be received for a time (muted response to good news, exaggerated response to bad news).
It's kind of annoying considering we are looking at some brilliant news ahead here, but I'm just saying don't be overly worried about your investments being in the red for a time, unless you've received materially bad news from a company ofc.
I'm probably going to turn off my alerts and put my portfolio out of sight until the market corrects.
As always, make of the chart what you will :)
J
What a nice way to end the week eh?
Discussions have been great today too, couldn't get involved as was working, but we do have a cracking bb.
Here's how we ended the week:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/21cjoVm3/
After a wobbly start this morning, and testing one of the lower trends, we finished very strong, especially in the face of a flat day for UK on the whole.
Hoping for more good news next week to build on that latest interview.
Enjoy the weekend all, it's going to be a scorcher!
J
@AgentB
The charts I've posted to date purely track the price of Helium One, and the price trends within.
It's like tracking the price of anything over time, such as a Mars bar, or a Range Rover, or a house. Collect the data of all prices paid over a duration and investigate the history. A stock, after all, is just an asset.
I can always overlay the stock of another company, but that could look rather messy consider how early on we are in this company. It's much easier to overlay RDSB on BP. for instance as they have much more history. But then, it really depends on to what end.
J