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Chart for ADV (requested by SeagullsFan). This is more of a 'for the record' kind of chart, i.e. this is how it stands.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MTpr9KfQ/
Currently we are still moving within a channel that goes all the way back to March 2020. It's interesting that the rerate of last week didn't begin a new leg of the journey (above the channel), so perhaps that has to wait until further news and RNS's.
It does kind of feel that anywhere in this initial price channel is a bargain, but I think the history shown on the chart is clear enough that there are potential 'ultra bargain' prices yet to be had while we're here.
We're still a smidgen in overbought territory, but it's almost negligible.
Don't view these charts I'm posting as forecasts per se, at such an early stage that is probably a bit too much. However, it's a good visual history of the price up to now.
J
Thanks swissy, I'm glad it's useful.
If anyone wants any actual help reading the charts that get posted just remember that there some good humans on this board who can, and are probably very willing to help, such as Wyndrum and Glib, as well as myself, and also Bigplan (who is admittedly far more FA).
We're all going int same direction.
Hopefully upwards. Like a damn rocket ship.
Here's the end-of-day chart to add a little perspective to the day-to-day movements:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/84taitW9/
Still looking fine to me, and the price ended right on the 50EMA which is pretty solid in my opinion. (For those who don't know, the EMA is an average price tracker calculated over a set amount of days, then calibrated to accommodate exponential trajectories by giving incorporating a multiplier to give added weight to more recent price observations) .
I'm definitely in the slightly-nervous-about-delay camp, but nonetheless the sp is trending positively overall which indicates that as of the end of today the market is still quite comfortable with the current situation.
Onwards.
J
"Looks like the daytraders are starting to arrive."
What, already? I didn't think we'd have enough exposure here yet. I think we probably need a little more liquidity regularly to really pick up the daytraders.
To be fair to BigPlan, I've also not got overbought RSI's on the daily chart for ADV on the dates you mention.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ynz6GHEb/
Even the 4h chart doesn't show it:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2ED026vZ/
The 1hr chart however does show something similar to what you're referring to:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hmz8gfBR/
To be clear though. A 1hr chart is NOT a daily chart.
Absolutely spot on BigPlan.
What to look for with the drop is where it rests over a number of 4-hourly blocks. This will likely become the new support.
It's difficult to see the re-rate of the last week turning into anything profound, so keeping an eye on where the floor forms will be useful for picking up more bargain shares.
Then, onwards and up :)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GIaBJJXm/
I mean, the RNS no-show is definitely disappointing, but by eck it's caused a lot of activity on here today.
Just in case anyone looks in and thinks the end has drawn near...
It's really not that bad,
https://www.tradingview.com/x/00i7Jz2F/
We're still moving with the trend. Nothing's changed. Only the RNS makes or breaks this leg of the journey.
J
I'd love it if this board didn't get clogged up with obstinate arguments of the kind "mine is better than yours".
The pigheadedness to refuse to consider the benefits of one side or the other is schoolyard quality material, and surely detrimental in the long run.
The whole TA vs FA argument is absurd as both methods have their benefits, and their flaws. Unwillingness to consider the use of both tools together seems a missed opportunity.
The obstinance in disregarding the benefits of either method, and the fervent attempts to discredit the other is little short of extremist, and there's enough of those causing problems on this planet without bringing it here.
For me it seems that knowledge and growth exist in finding compromise and a middle ground.
Ignorance exists on either end of that.
At the end of the day we're all invested in a cracking venture.
Stop spoiling the journey.
J
Just another thought, depending on the situation, you can also hold a stocks and shares LISA with HL which has the tax exemption benefits of a regular ISA buy with the added benefit of receiving 25% interest per year on up £4000 of deposited funds, i.e the government will give you an added £1k per year if you deposit 4k.
The catch with a lifetime ISA though is that you can only withdraw money if you are a first time home buyer or if it's being withdrawn as pension.
End of week chart highlighting the route we're still travelling. Hugging very tightly to the trendline all week so would be fairly safe to expect this to continue until the RNS breaks, or possibly for MM's to test a little lower before the moonshot.
Nothing's changed, yet.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HomIRIQ9/
As usual, chart is over 3 weeks old, unaltered. Make of it what you will.
J
Not to worry Noob, I've just heard the "leave, then" rhetoric too many times on here from some rotten fruit that it irked me somewhat.
I'll admit though, it even interests me that it is us chartists who have queried a similar concern today. A flaw in our makeup perhaps.
I hope we get news soon, even if it's just to alleviate some of the tetchy exchanges on here of late.
All the best.
Noob67, As one of your targets I'll concede that I am certainly more influenced, or swayed by detail, maybe by nature (many chartists, myself included, are natural and/or academic statisticians), and some of your points are valid. As a student of behavioral economics I can honestly say that I have even veered slightly into a mindset I should think I'd be more cognizant of. Shameful. I am but human.
With respect, though, please do not suggest people "leave HE1" just because they have a minor concern. The absurdity of that request is hard to articulate. We have a star of a CEO and an extremely promising project, I don't think questioning what a potential new schedule could look like begets the so-called guardians of HE1 showing people the door.
Good points Seagullsfan. It still doesn't entirely allay my concerns about schedule which I'll reassess ont weekend, but the "years" comment may have been a tad over-egged.
It's probably all the excitement over the uniqueness of this venture that's gotten under my skin, a little. Thankfully I don't have these concerns about any of my other investments as I might not cope.
I appreciate your cordiality.
J
I hear you Seagullsfan, and agree to some extent as its a reasonable assessment, but I do disagree about extrapolating to other drills. It may not be as linear as I had initially mentioned, but surely when DM and Co were putting together the initial schedule they would have also been counting on learning from the drill and reducing the time taken on future ones. So, assuming that element already existed when making the plans, then you can certainly reevaluate future drills based on this first one. Not accurately of course, but it will produce a new and extended timescale going forward.
Either way, as you say even if it was two months more then what is that really when we're in for the long haul (I'm comfortable with staying here for many many years if successful), but it may colour my view on how much more I choose to invest if I find that the opportunity cost could be lower in other places.
Injameswetrust, that's indeed one hypothesis. One that would still require a reassessment of schedule and expectations as it again deviates from the original plan as described at the outset (always expected some bumps, but that doesn't preclude revision).
It may be positive, it be less so, whichever, I think it wise, at least for me, to reevaluate the new timescale that emerges from this (very promising) drill.
Been thinking about this myself. Thankfully I've no need to access the monies I've invested here, so am in for the long haul, but the timescale has changed dramatically from this first drill attempt.
The longer the wait for the results here, the more the entire schedule extends since this drill will have a multiplying effect of the timescale for every other drill. Even if we got news tomorrow, you still have to take the time spent on this site and multiply that against the rest of the project.
I think it may be prudent to sit down at the weekend and go over this again to address my expectations as this could easily be stretching into the years, in which case opportunity cost could well become a factor.