Member Info for Jonah58

Trading = Gremlins vs Fairies!

People who ask why the share price dropped yesterday should also ask why it went up the day before. We are no longer under the radar. There is huge interest here and lots of shares are changing hands. All very healthy. This share is also being traded which tends to exaggerate the normal daily fluctuations. I am very relaxed about the price action.
We have plenty of news coming to keep our momentum. Half year report. Completion and commissioning of Roan phase 2 and both projects at Inyoni. Results of Cyprus drills. Start of construction at Elephant 1 and, unles I am much mistaken, more deals on the eastern limb. Great times to be invested here.

I don't know how valid this is, Scott, but one of the reasons given is that in the PGM business, the time between producing the stuff and getting paid for it is several months during which the basket price can change significantly, so quarterly reporting gives a false idea of what is going on. We used to have quarterly reports, so going to six monthly was a positive decision to change, not just a historical anomaly.

Splodge; I'm a huge fan of Mickie and what he says is true (!) but as a self admitted inexperienced investor you also have to consider our exposure to metal and currency price fluctuations, geopolitical problems, power outages, defaults by joint venture partners, the jurisdictions in which we operate, floods, fires, law suits and a host of other unpredictable factors. I am holding onto my shares in the expectation of at least a 50% uplift over the next year but this is the Wild West and at the risk of sounding patronising AIM is a place to invest only what you are prepared to loose. I should also add that I have 8 holdings on AIM and this is the one I am most confident about and consider least risky.

I agree with Shorn. This is a useful post. Thanks for taking the trouble.

yes jtb, as Pranch says, in the autumn. I'm pretty sure they said as such in the investor presentation. Willing to bet it's not at 5p though!

Factually incorrect, Destitute. Someone wants the pile of dust.
As for the raise at 5p - yes, there will be a raise. It’s a punt. Current sp movements are based on minimal volume and are virtually meaningless. You either back the team or you don’t. Your choice.

It's good to think big, JPos! I believe Glencore are impressed by what we have achieved at Sable. The RNS outlines a number of ways forward:- "As previously announced, consideration is being given to implementing a dedicated processing facility in the Eastern Limb to further expand the Company's processing footprint but in any event, this acquisition of material provides the option to Jubilee to secure additional processing capacity through acquisition, partnership or construction of a new facility to further expand its processing footprint."
We have used all three methods suggested (Acquisition: Sable, Partnership: Eland, New build: Inyoni). I think an Eland type deal is the least appealing. Does LC have his eye on a distressed operation we could acquire? A new Inyoni-type build, however, seems the most likely plan.

If we are right, JLPos, this looks like money for old rope as far as Bauba are concerned. We dig up their discard from which the chrome has already been extracted, cart it hundreds of kilometres to Inyoni, extract the PGMs and give them some of the profit. It can't be hugely profitable for us, but we are not a charity. It is looking more and more likely to me than Leon sees this as a stepping stone to replicating Inyoni on the Eastern limb. If so, he must surely have some further deals in the area lined up already. Watch this space.

Just a bit of idle speculation. Who are the partners in the two recent RNSs? Ther are multiple chrome mines on the Eastern limb, whose operators incude Glencore, Samancor, International Ferrometals, Sail group, Afarak and Bauba Platinum whose Moeijelijk farm mines LG6 ore in roughly the right quatities to match up with RNS 1 (https://www.baubaresources.co.za/moeijelijk-chrome-mine/). Do any of our SA friends have a view on this. Samancor is the obvious other bet.

With regard to RNS 2, BushyTailed has rather unkindly (!) posted a view that the large body of tailings procured is, in fact, what we always had at Dilokong but is now the subject of bitter legal wrangling. (https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-12-18-legal-tug-of-war-shutters-one-of-sas-richest-chrome-mines/). Has anyone heard any further information about how this dispute is progressing? The size of the dump (800.000 tonnes is the most recent figure I can find - https://thesa-mag.com/features/mining/asa-metals-pty-ltd-power-partnership/) - is about right and it is odd that DCM is not even mentioned now on our website. Despite these suspicious features, I don't go along with BushyTailed but I do think it is not unreasonable for us shareholders to ask our company to give us an update on DCM.

Also, if it is going to be economical to lug the new material for over 4 hours by truck to Inyoni, how much more profitable would it be to transport the DCM material which has the added benefit of having its fine chrome removed so should have a higher concentration of PGMs.

Neither of these two deals is huge, but as a gesture of intent they speak volumes. We want to corner the market and are setting about that aggressively. I don't think Mikie is ramping!

Remember the days,Spin, when we were in the power generation business. Power Alt used to sell electricity to ESCOM. But you are right, outages are always a risk. ESCOM need to buy a whopping vanadium redox battery (I’ve just had a dabble in BMN!)

My ears pricked up on that too, Seis. Not at all expected and quite intriguing. May have played a part in yesterday’s price action. Any improvement in the process could also feed through directly to Cyprus.

TbT. It’s always helpful to consider the downside but I don’t think your concerns about fluctuations in the basket price are valid with regard to this particular deal as the consideration (to be paid monthly) is linked to the price we receive. This means a guaranteed profit margin over the lifetime of the dump. I don’t think we would have entered this deal unless it was economical to do so though I accept transport costs will have to be met. I get the feeling that LC is looking towards constructing a new PGM processing facility for the eastern limb though.

Sable was originally set up to process zinc, and subsequently modified to take copper and cobalt ROM ore from DRC. Sumo is right - a while ago an astute poster drew attention to a Zambian smelter (close to Kitwe - Elephant 2) lying fallow for want of material from DRC or elsewhere. The problem is, large though the elephants may be, on their own there would not be enough material to make de-mothballing the facility economical. So we will either have to find some more material from somewhere, plug into an already working refinery or, as seems to be suggested in the broker's note, increase the capacity of Sable.

Seis, I think he was contrasting Cyprus to Hungary and Finland, rather than comparing. It is a strange podcast. At times Colin comes across as very insightful and sharp, and other times he seems to have lost the plot! For this reason I am not sure what to make of his comment 'Jubilee has only just begun'.

His account of the 'Jubilee Way' was, however, very helpful and there were lots of interesting 'asides' during that part of the conversation. It also came across that he saw potential value in constructing a processing facility for material from the dumps with a project life exceeding twelve years. This value would be considerably enhanced if CMRS (and maybe CHF - my additioo, not his) were to discover economically mineable ore bodies. He did not want to be drawn on gold but said it could be interesting. It's certainly worth listening to - if you are short of time the second half, after the question from the guy who obviously has shares in CMRS, is the most relevant.

Thanks Shiner and Seis. I did read the CMRS RNS and presentation, but must have forgotten it! I suppose I was comparing the 15Mt in Cyprus with the 150 Mt attributable to a single elephant. Who knows about the grades. As Colin says, on the assumption that the ancient Romans had not fine-tuned their comminution and bubble flotation techniques, some could be pretty high. Nevertheless, the Capex to build a refinery along the lines of Sable would be considerable (though this was considered feasible for the measly 10 Mt at Kabwe). In any event, I'm sure we know exactly what we are doing in Cyprus and I am looking forward to developments.

Potentially smart move, Shiner, with CMRS. I've lobbed a few bob into CHF working on the same principle. Could go pear shaped, but the grades in the tailings are better than some run of mine stuff. So I don't think grades will be an issue - what we need to know is how much material is accessible and hence, what is the longevity of the project.

The title of this thread is a misnomer. Just the normal fluctuations that are pretty predictable. Go to the 'charts' page and click on 2 years to see what I mean. I was forced to sell half my holding last month. I'm going long with the rest. So much more to come.

Can anyone explain to me in words not exceeding three syllableswhy we have had two price monitoring extensions and one share trade?

Hi Shorn. I think the specific recovery process you mention is the Conroast smelting recipe whose patent (inherited along with Braemore) has now run out. I can't see us getting involved with PGM smelting any time soon.

My understanding is that we don't use any processes that are not available to other companies, but, as Seis points out, we design our flow sheets very carefully to tailor make each process exactly right for the composition of each dump. This is where our IP is involved and we keep it very close to our chest. Our success with the fine chrome is but one example.

Other companies will surely enter the market, and there is room for them, but we need not worry as we are already established and will remain competitive. If a major wants us to work on a reprocessing JV, that's fine but the deal needs to be on our terms. If they try do bully us, we just walk away and they can do it themselves!