Member Info for Jonah58

I tend to agree with you, NS. If the 4th concentrator is not mythical (and this is the first I've heard of it) I would speculate a deal involving the Black Mountain at Wusakile, Kitwe, but that's just a guess.

Thanks Seis and Gotreal. A very nice article. Two further points. Lechwe is on course for full operation in Q2 2023. Less than year. Also, there is reference to a fourth concentrator. Now I wonder where that is going to be!

The thing is, Happydays, these are not particularly happy days. We have not done so badly compared with a raft of other shares. You only have to fill your car with petrol to understand why people are being more cautious, looking for investments which are safe and pay a dividend. I am still optimistic. I think Olly will want to make a mark soon and that much is going on under the surface. Sentiment will swing our way in due course.

Whilst acknowledging Modeller's points (which are well made), I am sympathetic to Charles' view on Cyprus. I think it boils down to "the Jubilee Way" (JW)
The JW was initially shorthand for our bespoke approach to dumps, analysing their 'DNA' and coming up with individual solutions to manage them economically. But then came our promotion of small scale chrome mining outfits in Rustenberg resulting in long term feed for our PGM operations. This has, somehow, been transplanted to Zambia where we are making a big noise about local employment and artisan mining, though how this is going to play out in the copper/cobalt scenario is unclear to me. In any event 'local' involvement is now also very much a part of the JW.

Cyprus is different. The only existing processing facility is accounted for. This leaves our partner Caerus and Chesterfierld as the best of the rest (in fact, all of the rest). The dumps have tempting grades, but unless we are also getting ROM for at least a further 10 years, where is the payback on such a huge CAPEX going to come from? Where does the Jubilee Way fit into this jurisdiction?

Can you reassure me, Frog, that Phosa selling half his shares in the knowledge of an upcoming placement would not be classified as 'insider dealing'.

It’s a fair question Zero. But I could say ‘why is someone buying all the shares that Lombard is selling?’ There are dozens of possible answers.

Thanks everyone for filling us in on the AGM. Lots to be positive about.

Zero, I don't think you shuld be surprised about people selling shares (apparenty). That's what happens in markets. People buy and sell things. As Dactions points out, it is unreliable to trust the buy/sell algorithm. Contrary to popular opinion, the market makers are not prone to buy loads of shares, hoard them and sell them later at a profit. They make their money on the spread. So rather than concentrate on who is selling or buying, maybe it is more sensible just to note that a large volume of shares are changing hands and the opinion of the market as a whole is currently bouyant- hence the upward pressure on the SP.

TG5. I think you are referring to the Conroast process, for which Jubilee owned the patent until recently when it expired. At present we are not smelting any of our own material, though our fine chrome process means we are producing a feed with very low chromite concentration.

Thanks Dactions. More or less tallies with my perception. I got my fingers burned with a Moz share a few years ago when RENAMO reappeared, though they never really left. I have a friend who grew up there. He tells some hair raising stories! It does look as though we hope to get something going there eventually, rather than bailing out.

It's tricky to guage just what our company has in mind for Mozambique. It gets scant comment in the RNSs. Audited accounts for 2021 state:-
"However, although the continued unrest in the Northern part of Mozambique has not affected the business, we have written down the value of the biological assets in that geography by $23.2 million as a result of lower forecast maximum permitted harvest rates. We continue to plan for improving our overall activity levels in that geography in 2022. Our Gabonese concessions now account for 88% of our total biological assets of $336.8 million "

Half year results 2021 were pessimistic:-

"Largely due to unforeseen hurdles created by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the collaboration with Future Earth, our contracted managers in Mozambique, has yielded little in the way of results to date. We continue to monitor this situation closely, while reserving the right to switch strategy in Mozambique in line with the terms of the agreement in place should evidence of tangible progress fail to materialise during H2 2021. A positive contribution from Mozambique for 2021 is at this time considered doubtful.2

and then, in the next operational update we get:-

"· Conditions in Mozambique remain uncertain, and the Group is reviewing its strategy and plans there for 2022."

My impression is that we are just letting Moz tick over at the moment so we don't have all our eggs in the Gabon basket, but I would welcome anything more concrete.

Very interesting discussion and I thank all contributers. One point, perhaps overlooked, is that last year's incredible hike in basket price (especially rhodium and palladium) set the bar ridiculously high for thid year's performance.
It's a bit like Emma Raducanu winning the US open. Some people have expressed disappointment with her progress since then, but noticeably not Emma herself. She knows she has all that is required to make steady progress and the world is her oyster. I think the simile is relevant.

Homey has a point that there will probably be a shortfall, but I think we simply do not know enough even to make a rough estimate of how much this will be. I think we can assume the two northern concentrators will cost roughly the same as Roan, but I haven't a clue how much it will cost to renovate the refinery there and how the JV will work out. Equally, until we know whether we are building from new, or modifying an existing processing facility (and what sort of deal that entails) in the eastern limb it will be impossible to put a price on it. I agree that we probably wont be paying for all of this out of income, but the prospective revenue stream these investments opens up could well be used to leverage a corporate loan on favourable terms. I will be fascinated to see what Ollie makes of all this, and I don't think we will have to wait too long to find out.

Graham, I admit I'm only guessing here, but looking at his CV I stongly suspect Ollie is his own man!

I think there was a clue in the interview about the financing of the northern strategy in tha comments Leon made about Ollie sharing his concern for shareholders, and looking for other means of corporate finance rather than the issuing of equity.

Returning to our core business (!) Having read all the RNSs and presenations and listened to lots of interviews, I think I have a good understanding of our Gabon business and where it is going. But I am very much uncertain what is happening/planned in Mozambique where our concession is twice as big. I appreciate that the jurisdiction is considerably more 'challenging'. RENAMO is not a spent force and transportation logistics are unreliable, though the Nacala railway is presumably still functional. Even so, the company material is a tad coy about what is going on. Can anyone hre with an ear o the ground tell me where this part of the business is heading?

Yes Cavey, difficult to say. Maybe some off-market deals being reported too. I prefer to say that well north o 2 million shares changed hands today at somewhere between 15.3 and 15.4p. For every seller there's a buyer. Nice volume.

Thanks Seis for these intriguing posts and links. As your article says, the Nkana dump (dripping with cobalt) has been the subject of a number of attempts at beneficiation which have failed technically and/or economically. What it needs is a bespoke solution. One company in sub-saharan Africa springs to mind!
Then, as Charles emphasises, the 10% owned by a cooperative of artisan miners is problematical - leading to pollution, civil unrest, health issues and poor recovery rates. Kabuswe (seen nestled up to Leon in the pictures) is under pressure with this regard.
What is he do do about the army of scavengers highlighted in the striking images. If I owned a company interested in this project, the first thing I would do is highlight my credentials as a prospective employer.
Put another way - how many RNSs have we had about our job creation in South Africa?

I am a bit confused about cobalt from Sable. I am inclined to agree with Homey that this is likely to be pilot operation. My understanding is that the Roan material contains little cobalt and we will therefore be processing Northern strategy material, but this is not preconcentrated and is subject to joint venture agreements etc. Will we be trucking down raw tailings from a dump in Kitwe 200+ km to the preconcentrator at Sable before extracting the cobalt (and, presumably the copper too)? Alternatively, will we take the material about 60 km to the Roan concentrator, and then truck the concentrate to Sable?
In any event, I agree with everyone here that the definite entry of cobalt into the pipeline is exciting for the medium term if not in the immediate future.

In answer to your specific question...

Jay, AIM is a pit of vipers. Best not to invest on the basis of anything anyone says on this board. These small companies are hugely risky and no one in their right mind will invest money here they can't afford to loose (and still keep a smile on their face).

With that caveat, I can say why I am here.
1. WBI is a well run company that deals in a commodity that is in great demand and will continue to be so for the forseeable future.
2. I believe it is well managed by a board that has skin in the game and is supported by its institutional investors.
3. It is investing heavily in its ESG credentials which, in the current environment, is surely the way forward.
4. It has a realistic, but ambitious, programme of expansion. It communicates these plans well with its shareholders. I assume you have read the recent presentations on the website.
5. Its stated aim is to pay a dividend as soon as it is feasible.
6. Communications are good and are scheduled to improve further.

In answer, but I am holding for the medium term. Deduce from that what you will. to your specific question, I have no idea what is going to happen to the share price