Member Info for Jonah58

Further to my post 08.32 in which I point out that JLP is not the only agency with a finger in the clean up Kabwe pie; this article puts a little more meat on the bones.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/06/22/zambia-hope-kabwe-lead-poisoning-victims

I share your relief, Charles, about Cyprus but I think you are mistaken about lead and zinc. We haven't had to invest heavily in a zinc circuit as it was already there. The reason for failing to progress zinc was purportedly uneconimic metal prices, but I think there is more to it than that. The zinc/lead clean-up has input from a variety of agencies including the Zambian government and the world bank. The more people involved, the slower the progress. But I believe it will eventually occur. I only hope this happens in my lifetime as I would love to see the abomination of Kabwe confined to the history books.

I notice Berenberg have reiterated their 'BUY' notice today with a taregt og 20p.

Quite a bit to like in this RNS, especially, as others have said, our ability to keep unit costs down in an inflationary environment.
Leon is playing his cards pretty close to his chest when it comes to any plans for expansion. I get the impression that acquisition of a mothballed plant in the eastern limb, previously appearing to be a a virtually done deal, is not so certain now. There is still talk of building a facility from scratch = huge capex.
Good to see 95% PGMs produced 'in-house'. Presumably the Eland JV is still alive, then, accounting for 5% of our production.

I once went to Albania, Cartun, with Euro 3000 in my socks to buy a French horn.
(Sorry for off topic irrelevance. Just need to keep the board ticking over pending news)..

I saw the tweet Mickie. Not sure it has any immediate significance but as someone else has pointed out these tweets are something new. Clearly there is a deliberate policy to beef up our ESG credentials and , more specifically in relation to Zambia. It doesn’t take a genius see which way our company wants to go!

Like most investors here, I suspect, the majority of my portfolio is in 'safe' dividend paying stocks. I have a smaller fund for the high risk, fun stuff on AIM. The funds don't overlap. So there is no way I am selling JLP just now. Interest rates have 'rocketed' to 1.75%. That is nowhere near enough to tempt me into cash either!

Thanks for posting this Seis. The striking graph is, as you originally posted, the rhodium price. It would be nice to do some correlation coefficients to put a figure on the relationship, but it looks tight on eyeballing. Your conclusions are difficult to dispute, but, as you say, we should see what the market thinks of it all soon enough.

Easy to be wise after the event, Pain! I missed that one too. I thought that if it was just a pump and dump, the company would issue a speeding ticket, so when one didn't arrive I stupidly assumed there was something more to the rise that the wretched article. Anyway, at these prices I reckon your investment will do well. I, too, am adding in dripbs and drabs on the dips.

Really interesting post, Seis and, to a mathematician, very compelling. Thanks.

I think you are right, Screenlearner. These are probably off-market sales that have been subsequently reported. Happy to hold here.

Brad, you seem to have swung from very optimistic to very gloomy on the carbon credit front. You don't need me to tell you that the market (especially AIM) always tries to be one step ahead. All that investors need is to see that there is a plan in place for the credits and that progress is being made within a defined time scale (even quite a long one) towards realising that plan. The Sp will start to reflect the perceived profit from these credits well before they acually start accumulating.

I have some sympathy with your PoV, Summit. Whilst accepting that Rome was not built in a day, it sometimes seems that not was not built in a century either. For me, the crucial difference between JLP today and the heady days of Smokey Hill and Power Alt lies in the longevity of our projects. When we bought into Hernic I thought 'this is going to be the same old story', a six year project which is just profitable enough to pay back the capex, keep the lights on and maintain the lifestyle of the BoD before the dump runs out and we look for the next project. This sort of 'hand to mouth' existance leaves precious little for the last people to visit the trough - that is, us retail shareholders.
The situation now is a whole world of difference. No more capex needed for Inyoni, just maintenance so it becomes a cash cow with a decent lifespan from now on, even if metal prices are depressed.
Our copper reserves should last longer than me if we get the northern strategy on track, though that will be a bit more sensitive to metal prices so we will have to wait and see.
Incidentally, we are more than half way through the year: time for a provisional look at our end of year SP competition. Bushy said 8p, I said 21p so I am marginally in the lead today. Hopefull WHI predictions are fulfilled and I eventually loose comprehensively.

It's dropping because there are more sellers than buyers, so the market makers drop the price to encourage buyers and discourage sellers. They make their money on the spread. No conspiracy theory needed.
Why are people selling? Lots of possible reasons, such as 1. They need the cash, 2. They bought in low and are consolidatinga profit, 3. They see a better buying opportunity elsewhere, 4. They are affected by the general bear market sentiment (Putin, inflation, China lockdown etc etc etc) and are putting their money into safer securities, 5. They want a dividend paying investment in times of rising prices. I could go on.
I am not selling just yet. This is a well run company (rare on AIM) with good prospects and communications. I also think it will be paying a dividend within two years.
Enjoy the sunshine and DYOR.

Very good news that Roan will reach capacity at the end of this month. This is a huge step forward. With regard to cobalt, like Mickie, I seem to recall reading somewhere that we plan to produce a concentrate, not metallic cobalt. I also note the caveat that the refinery will have the capacity to produce so much concentrate dependant on the amount of cobalt in the feed. I don't think the Roan tailings dump has a lot cobalt in it - certainly not as much as the northern strategy dumps so I am trying not to get carried away (not sure of the cobalt content of the Roan ROM). Very solid progress, though, and I am trying to free up funds to buy here whilst the price is at such a bargain.

Agreed. Steady ramp up of production and profits at a time when a lot of other companies are strugglimg. Some of this is yet to be reflected in H1 accounting period, so this carry over plus the new veneer line shuld make for a very profitable H2.

Good post Seis. It looks to me as though Caerus are preparing investors for a possible bailout in Cyprus. I’ve never been keen on this project, so I’d not be at all disappointed if this turned out to be the case.

One thing I picked up from the RNS is this:

"The new international Phase 3 clinical trial protocol requires the presence of the biomarker before being allowed into the study. This protocol was accepted by the FDA at the previous Type C meeting in 2021."

It seems to imply that the protocol for the forthcoming phase 3 trial is already written. This will include all sorts of crucial information such as criteria for admitting patients and the end points which I am very keen to know. The trial does not appear in the list I usually turn to:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=Lupus+Erythematosus&Search=Apply&recrs=b&age_v=&gndr=&type=&rslt=

Does anyone have any further information about the protocol? Nolupus?

Nice find Brad. It looks like Total Energies's model is similar to ours (though ten times bigger!). Having said that, our modus operandi fits in very nicely with what Lee White says about selective logging ultimately capturing more carbon. I am hopeful that we will continue to maintain excellent relations with the Gabonese government.
As a side note, I see that Gabon have started promoting themselves as an eco tourist destination. As a keen birdwatcher, I am tempted though the prices of the trips I have found so far are eye watering. Maybe one day I'll sell my holding and visit the place!

Thanks Seis. Your contributions are always valuable and much appreciated.