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Alexios - I must disagree, if they are going to drill a new well or have a workover if is infinitely better to do it this year, else the new well could have to wait until 2022 for connection to production system. Rigs are likely to be cheap and most importantly the company could get an extra year of revenue and testing prior to the bonds settlement date.

Get the job done early and have an easier year next year.

The difference could well be over $100m in cash balance.

By any standards and opens up development opportunities.

- All but guarantees HUR survival and strong exit from the corona crisis.
- Shows the OGA are supportive and now open to reasonable proposals.
- Allows Centrica flexibility (probably real motive) to find a buyer for Spirit at a reasonable price and preserve their capital. new partner may be much more inclined to develop the field quickly.
- Provides new planning flexibility - doesn't means they can drill the well earlier if it is cost effective (cheap rig).
- Allow HUR to schedule with years work and focus on Lancaster production and get a new well linked in next year.
- Preserves capital and strengthens position in negotiating an extension to the Bond by removing any uncertainty.

Now the just need to firm up and communicate their plan for Lancaster this year, get it done and Bob's your uncle, they're a beautiful Swan again.

First I must say the news is a massive disappointment, not least because Dr T has admitted he is uncertain, I suspect his BoD position may now be untenable and he becomes some sort of technical director. Second, I would be amazed if any of the BoD buy any shares as they will be privy to inside information as things will change day to day andalso the admit they have no plan in doing so.

Yes it's awful but it not the end, the debt is long term and lets be serious, there can be no broken covenants as the lenders knew full well it is a test system without Guaranteed production.

Turning it on it's head, we couldn't pick a better time when oil prices are crap and it help focus the BoD on the next move, as I said the other day the workover was the least risky move - now even more so. This type of news is released from time to time be many companies and unless they are in effect death in the water (couldn't resit), they keep quiet and take their medicine along with the remaining II's and PI's that don't throw in the towel. Invariably(any BoD with any common sense (all British people have common sense remember), has or is working on a plan including mitigations, IMO that will be communication after the turmoil as is normal practice else it is ignored. I suspect they will announce remedial work or a new well as saving the money and relying on steady state production is no long an option. I it where me I would also be making urgent representations for the OGA to relax the drilling requirements for "like to have wells" whilst more information about the resource is gathered for Warwick and Lancaster, and pressing them to approve a workover.

So looking beyond today, it simply looks bleak, the SP is anyone's guess but we can't expect a full recovery any time soon, however all can be retrieved with the right management decisions and support from the OGA, who I suspect will also be under pressure from Centrica and more willing to be accommodating than previously.

Though generally downbeat as anyone would expect, some good reasoned posts today. On the flip side when bad news is released every form of idiot and low life sticks the boot is to suggest it's the end of the world , some subtle and some blatantly nasty - stay logic guys, even if you sell do it on a rational basis not because some idiot directs/persuades you to do so.

I think some of the comments today are off the mark, the company are spot on with their current considerations of the next move , WRT the issue of workover or new well, the workover is being considered because it is less risky in many ways.

Lets consider a new well - Will be expensive, May Fail, May be less productive than expected, Will take another year to link up after drilling (could fail to maximise revenue), Will be expensive to link up, Will require the support of the OGA which appears sadly lacking and additional requirements could be added by them, and in light of the results of the drilling campaign with spirit do we really want to drill 1 well and not have the resources to drill another if the well happens to hit a poorly broken section of strata. It is also questionable is the additional production could be handled or handled profitably until other expensive works are carried out and the oil price rises.

A workover will prove the company's assertion that water is perched and therefore increase the likelihood of a bid IMO, it will be much cheaper to drill and much easier to get permission for. surely there will be no better time to take down the production from 7 well with the oi price so low and the desire to save capital. Especially, If as the company think the new region is substantially more productive there may be no need to spend on additional linking of a new well. Lets not forget the well drilled with spirit could also be linked and add up to 10000 b/d

The workover option could provide enough production, well over 400000b/d would be possible, with the additional well still an option, whereas, if we drill the new well first the is the possibility of completely failing to prove the concept if we are unlucky with the strata fracturing.

HUR and all other oil companies need to minimise risk and preserve cash until the current uncertainty is removed.

Breakeven for HUR is $26/barrel that's before they undertake any cost savings or renegotiate any contracts/ get concessions from the OGA, so all is OK, if uncertain.

The volatility and uncertainty that it causes it is what does the damage, every cycle up/down/up, even if we end up in the same oil price territory hurts the SP, with maybe a few more shareholders deciding to trade or sell-out instead

The SP has been higher at a much lower oil price and less light at the end of the tunnel. Time will see this recover strongly as long as there is no bad news operationally, IMO the cash position is better than almost all our peers, buys enough time.

Just to add my two penneth , banker2 was perfectly right to highlight the difficulty as it means SP support is being inhibited.

I've used many brokers, currently ii and Lansdown, and I can confirm I could not get a buy quote for HUR on either platform for a large part of a day last week and every time I got one the price quoted was ramped up first I assumed to deter the trade.

I use limit orders on occasion but only when I understand what is happening. But when the market in a share is abnormal for no known reason, then surely it is prudent to ensure the share is still not illiquid and something horrendous or wonderful is not about to happen.

daltry - so your point is strictly correct and provide good advice - but you miss the risk aspect that gets into traders heads and leads to a reluctance to trade - as it did with me last week, changing brokers may help but it's not that simple.

banker2 - I've been testing for some time and indeed it's hard to get a quote for any quantity and the price is well above the quoted range.

I concluded they are facilitating someone's purchase at a low price before moving up - disgraceful if so because they are not paying sellers a fair price but there it is

The Q1 update was a disappointment, shame really as I think the SP would have been well north of 80p had the production momentum been maintained.

However, mining and particularly underground operations have to work through measures the are of lower quality at times, even barren areas to get to areas with better grades. As it was planned I see no cause to be concerned - large scale operations can balance grades from different working areas whereas smaller operations must go through the ups and down.

Not to worry as the new area of production is coming on soon, upward movement will be resumed, it is inevitable if the gold price maintains its strength.

With gold and silver sales, I can't see what anyone is worried about, there are no strange numbers in respect to production or sales. No silver sales - so what! It's a relatively small % of sales and may simply be deferred because it is sold as a batch, better prices are expected or logistics made it impractical (cost effective).

3 large trades notified late in the day, deferred, perhaps explains why the SP have been rooted, MM selling them before reporting them.

200,000 at 60p
200,000 at 60p
97,000 at 60.5p

Patience required as the quality will shine through and be reflected in the SP eventually.

Trumpian Bluff!

SA and Russia cannot possible oblige as they would be selling their countries down the river for the greater glory of the mighty USA.

It's ridiculous, preposterous, stupid, as I said Trumpian in nature, that's not to say a sensible deal won't be done.

Historically Gold and Oil show weakness in the face of a strong $ and vice-versa.

That holds good because commodities priced in dollars are more expensive to the buyers in other countries, apparently Gold is more expensive in many currencies than ever before . the_shareminator, your inflation adjusted price takes the US perspective, the US (via the FED) retain control using the mighty $ as a big stick. Unfortunately for them the world is in turmoil and the FED has to feed their economy with money in the form of QE.

Gold has retained it's value against a strong $ and fading oil price - temporarily partially decoupled ? If the dollars weakens as the impact of coronavirus becomes too difficult for DT to trivialise - people elsewhere will buy more.

It's game on as no one knows where prices are going and investors are simply scrambling to avoid losing their shirt. The US will never support Gold, the general population has no affinity for it, yet they have massive impact on the price. The current price is a great springboard to start from.

"Russia need $45 a barrel and Saudia Arabia need as much as $80"

These numbers get banded about, like they are fixed - when in fact they are based on the premise that the country's budgets are some how fixed - that is not so.

Just like the shale drillers who have cut aggressively against their budgets countries can amend theirs and the new situation does potentially change other important factors.

The Russians have benefitted from a 30% crash in the Rouble/Dollar exchange rate a massive boost to the sector, Igor Sechin (Rosneft boss) will pleased as punch. Other Russia sectors less so if carrying $ debt.
Russia can just, screw over their people and they'll accept any thing as long as Vlad says it's good for them, whereas SA has spoiled population who have been spoon fed vast personal wealth and luxuries, so they need to stop them spitting their dummy out if it hits their benefits or personal bank balance. There's where I see the problem, to compete they need to cut costs and their currency is pegged to the $, so don't get the benefit of the devaluation, if the prince decouples and takes away their package of goodies the spoiled people will want his head or an immediate end to the price war.

If he does take the huge risk of decoupling and cutting spending, the SA budget could be cut by a large % perhaps even halved to near Russian levels.

Everyone is under pressure, companies like HUR just need to preserve cash and survive, it will end or further down the line there will be a supply shortage crisis. Dr. Trice said we may not be able to fund the spending programme, I took it to mean he is preparing for a later announcement of a budget cut - excellent they are hopefully already taking action and planning a survival strategy. We are lucky to have the cash to be flexible.

Shorters or others on leverage, will be very cautious at the moment, if they have any sense.

If there is a sudden or extreme lurch down and shorters are involved the Chancellor has said he will act to stop those profiteering, that could include various measures.
Mandating notifying positions at lower levels, banning, prosecuting misdemeanours, increasing penalties to the extreme of stopping share trading.

Stopping share trading is not what any of us want, but the survival of major companies will take precedence - follow the logic through, if trading is stopped the likelihood is that everyone will be locked in and the market will be restarted when things improve and shorters will potentially be put to the sword. Hence perhaps their reluctance to go in for a feeding frenzy - they won't get the usually fair warning to cover their backsides

All IMHO of course - I just think we are in a whole new territory where the usual feeding frenzy will not be tolerated. Time will tell.

Another thought is that the employer with the virus is a contractor's worker and they may agree orwe forced to shut down HUR's production - my point is that HUR may not be responsible for full or even the majority of costs - - as someone said previously HUR may be able to go on low production or hibernation with low ongoing costs. If forcibly closed the government would pay staff to 80%.

The linked chart illustrated the extend and speed of the collapse of the Rouble - TSG are direct beneficiaries as the company stated in their recent RNS, operating costs will have dropped by approaching 30% ($ denoted costs will be unaffected).

The Rouble is likely to weaken further as the oil crisis bites, there are few safe haven's, TSG is not without risk but at least the shares are not crumbling 10%+ every trading session.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y

None - Putin says the spread of the virus can't be stopped - to me that's a signal that the fallout will be tolerated.

It is a different sentiment than the Western powers, maybe I've read the signals wrong - but I don't think so - herd immunity for them unless they change tack. Also TSG is a world way from the big transit areas where people a flitting in and out all the time, should be effected very late in the cycle and Gold mines like oil receipts are Key to Russia's effort to retain some fire power to defend their interests.

A few small trades have sent this lower - A bought a few more so pleased it showed a little weakness, can't see any reasonable explanation for it though and always suspect a series of small trades being the same entity trying to manipulate.

Gold price is strong and that is what counts, furthermore I read an article about oil yesterday suggesting the huge advantage created for Russia as the Rouble has fallen 20% ish in the last here weeks - convinced me this is a good place to throw a little more cash as Gold is also sold in $ with costs in Roubles, we are benefitting even before the Gold price rises.

I just tried a dummy buy and sell to test prices and was offered:

61.5 and 61.7

I can't recall seeing such a tight spread, it's usually woeful - I normally suspect it is to encourage trade to acquire or clear shares, or seek direction, maybe it was/is a temporary blip, but usually it's encouraging IMO

Gold appears to be rising slightly but erratically (flitting up and down upto $10/oz ever second or two - I suspect there is a battle royal going on in the market for control of the direction.

Lets hope it goes the right way - DT talked about the US getting back to normal after the Easter break - calmed the market, and the rumour the US will agree a truce in the oil war, markets are clinging on to these things at the moment. But if they are seen to fail risk off and finding a safe haven will be order of the day.

Goldman Recommends Gold - sees safe haven appeal and price current depressed - lots of version of the attached article on the web.

The slow buying pressure could turn into a stampede at any time. and hopefully TSG will follow it up.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/gold-price-time-buy-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-markets-2008-similar-2020-3-1029027476