Member Info for jointhedots

Don't worry, it won't be long, the pull is still well above a level to justify that price, news has been against gold today, even Russia claiming a treatment for Coronavisus has eased fears. News will be good news may on one day then stitch and be bad for the SP but none of it changes the underlying proposition that the company is on the verge of a significant performance improvement.

We still don't know what the average grade of V25 or the full production potential, but all evidence is pointing to exceptional performance which I think has not yet been recognised by the market.

Commentators have been suggesting a pull-back for a while now, to supposedly let a little air out of the bubble before the next leg up. So lets get it done, it will be short lived IMO, as the reasons for a much higher gold price is still clearly in place -

POG is going to be volatile and and so TSG will follow, the higher it goes especially in a short time the worse - remember only a week or two ago we required multiple tries at $1900/oz of gold

The point I want to make is don't react to every movement, I'm sure no one on here is as this is not really on the list of short term traders and idiots, but it's surprising (part of the problem with the market) and disappointing at times that many PI's are so nervous the sell for the slightest perceived risk.

TSG will be exceptionally profitable at anything over $1800/oz and as vein 25 starts to contribute more, profitability will soar as higher grade source material means more gold for less tonnes mined.

Dr T may have been over-optimistic (jury still out) as the new crew are being ultra cautious and throwing the kitchen sink at it - yet it's still only an opinion. So thinking past the current panic and disillusionment, hopefully in September they will present us with a working operational model that is crucially "sustainable".

There may perhaps be substantially less oil but the current estimate dwarfs even BPs north sea assets so outcome could be still very impressive and lucrative to develop as it flows substantially.

I repeat what I said earlier if they thought the operational model was unsustainable they would first, not have increased production and then indicated in the RNS that production will have to be cut back - they didn't, so currently we still have a potentially lucrative future operation irrespective of the bumps in the road.

Trolls are up early today

Not good news, but they did say they thought oil/water contact was higher previously. surely the FPSO repair costs are the responsibility of the contractor.

The production number is the most significant "tell" for me, if the holes where at risk of watering out they would cut production to what can be sustained so not all bad.

tacet - there's no hope for me then, down the slippery slope.

Come to think of it there have been quite a few lying, cheating company directors I've felt like strangling over the years. I suppose murder is quite evil. I'm sure I'm not the only investor who has felt that urge though, seen many express similar on the BB's.

I think it would have been well over £3 before the offer, even £3.50, I find if difficult to accept (though I must) that our fellow shareholder that RNSed his selling didn't know of the offer (he's a Billionaire close associate of Roman A and associates according to information on the net).

Fortuitous coincidence for our buyer, only thing I can think of is it helped cap the SP.

IMO this should be £4 for a take out, it surprises me our big shareholders think £3 is OK.

Fear of missing the boat is starting to take over with most gold miners now - same here soon.

To put it into context, looking at where the SP has been and current progress of operation, I believe fair value should be in the range 130p to 160p before any more good news is released.

I do think the Russian location is a major drag, and the antics a HGM and POG cannot have helped, it's capped like a coiled spring and must break free soon.

So far the sector has hardly moved, this should be a leveraged play on Gold, IMO should be up over 10% today.

Feels a bity like HGM did over the last few weeks (manipulated to keep a lid on the price IMO) I'm in good profit here and in HGM but it is not giving me pleasure as I feel like I'm Oliver Twist - I want more and feel I'm being short changed.

Am I being greedy and what's the cure? lol

The buyer has said they will reduce any offer by any amount paid in dividends before the deal completes.

I suspect that is not legal not legal to reduce their offer if a dividend is paid, they have to offer the same price for the shares as those that have already sold.

Of course I'm no expert but perhaps they've stated that intent at the outset to crush any expectations (no reason to hold) - but supposedly they have no control over the company and the offer is mandatory at the maximum already paid and if not happy they can withdraw their interest. Also could their statement be considered a coercion to sell and recent sellers intimidated ?

From RNS "· If any dividend or other distribution is authorised, declared, made or paid in respect of Highland Gold Shares on or after the date of this Announcement, Fortiana reserves the right to reduce the offer consideration by the aggregate amount of such dividend or other distribution."

What are you talking about ? Trading is normal, someone is mopping up the cheap shares being dumped - 2.5%+ upside will be seem as a good low risk option to park some funds by some IIs I suspect.

kenj - thanks for helping put everyone in the picture and accepting I was not wholly wrong.

Perhaps. I can now explain why I'm labouring this, it's not because I'm hopeful or wearing rosy coloured specs, I agree with you and I think it is almost certain the £3 deal will go through.

However, the key word is "almost sure", I've been in takeover many times in various sectors and unless someone kicks off against it, it simply either fails or sails through if they've got the money - the interesting bit is when a rival bid or someone with a blocking share steps in. Hence my suggestion rushing for the exit door may be a little premature when an offer isn't even on the table and no opinion/advice from a trustworthy source. For me there's no rush

kenj - no need to get annoyed, there are some very aggressive and rude posters on this BB- you don't know everything, just posting a paragraph from the panel doesn't make it a complete assessment , when the code stretches to 425 pages and still is subject to fair interpretation via the panel.

Yes with 50% they get to takeover if they've not broken rules, but my understanding is that does not entitle them to force minority shareholders to sell, for that they need to get acceptances from 90% of shareholders or take over by a scheme of arrangement requiring a vote in favour of over 75% and court approval. I believe that all changes if a second party declares an interest or the panel decide something is not fair and reasonable.

I'm not saying it won't complete or 50% won't be enough, but it's not over until you have the money in your account

Summary from a Law Firm's website:

"Public takeovers in the UK are implemented by either a contractual takeover offer or a scheme of arrangement.

Under a contractual takeover offer, the bidder makes a general offer to all target shareholders. Shareholders are sent an offer document containing information on the bid and the bidder. The bidder must secure acceptances over shares representing more than 50% of the target’s voting share capital to declare the offer unconditional. Acceptances over shares representing 90% of the target’s voting share capital are required to squeeze out the minority (and thereby enable the bidder to acquire all of the target's voting share capital). Given that bidders typically aspire to acquire 100% of the voting rights in a target company, it is therefore usual for the acceptance condition to be set at 90% (rather than 50%), but for the bidder to have the option to reduce this threshold to shares carrying over 50% of the voting rights.

A scheme of arrangement is a statutory mechanism which is an alternative to a contractual offer. It is a formal arrangement between the target company and its shareholders, which is governed by the Companies Act 2006. A scheme of arrangement must be approved both by the shareholders of the target company and the High Court. In particular, a scheme of arrangement requires approval from shareholders who constitute a majority in number of each class of shareholders who are subject to the scheme of arrangement and who are voting at the meeting. This majority must also represent at least 75% in number of those shares which are voted.

The main advantage of a scheme of arrangement is that, if successful, it will bind all shareholders (regardless of whether, or in what way, they voted). However, due to the High Court’s involvement, schemes of arrangement are less flexible structures than contractual takeover offers."

sasa43 - Yes they are pretty mean, but a divi could be throw in as a sweetener for remaining shareholders if things get tricky.

I don't think you are quite right on the 50%, the takeover panel have the option to insist on 75% if they think that shareholders are being treated unfairly (though they are usually a useless bunch). They can also insist the buyer sells down if they fail to gain sufficient support.

The offer has not been formally made yet, they will take guidance from the takeover panel - must make an offer soon as it is compulsory.

Our BoD will be advised on what they need to do also, 50% or a 75% majority support requirement - I'm expecting 75% if there is any kick back from other large investors in which case it's game on.

I believe they can also try to buy shares in open market but must secure 90% in that case to secure a mandatory acceptance - please correct me if I'm wrong.

I guess the likelihood is it will all go through smoothly for our buyer, but things can fall into a heap easily if other big shareholders put up a fight.

I think the company will cease to exist when the fighting is done, but if someone with some clout decides they won't just roll over to accommodate the buyer then we still have a chance of a better offer.

The Russian sellers would also get the improved offer under takeover rules I suppose they have not actually sold (have they?) just committed irrevocably to sell.

drunk you don't know me and jet characterise me "you people never provide anything to back up your argument!"

I'm not part of any grouping and never say anything without qualifying it as my own opinion without some reasonable evidence. Your comments on Russia betray your support, much of the cr*p about Russian strength comes from Russian propaganda, like the drivel about being able to withstand low oil prices .

I'll grant you Putin is a smart guy and so it's damned obvious he and his team will talk tough on the economy , bravado is what they do, never blink, but I suspect behind the scenes they are extremely concerned but would never betray that to the market. They, like most countries need foreign investment - for example Igor Sechin came to London and did the rounds some years ago to try to raise the 10s of Billions of Dollars they need to modernise their oil industry (all is not rosy in the Russian cottage) . Russian agriculture doing well is great news for them, but is rather incidental to what I'm discussing.

Russia must have a source of billions US $ to function or spend reserves, that's why they keep near 1/2 trillion in reserve and are reluctant to spend it supporting the Rouble and I believe why they bought gold as it's immediately convertible . That doesn't mean the underlying Russian economy won't prosper in the long term , but my point was it's prudent to repatriate $ income.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-05-01/The-importance-of-a-dollar-SWAP-line.html
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/fitch-revises-15-russian-banks-outlooks-to-negative-on-coronavirus-disruption-oil-price-slump-07-04-2020

drunk - I'm not interested in arguing with you. believe what you like, I've been investing in Russia for well over a decade in a number of companies and sectors and if any of you don't know that the Russians grab what the want if they're connected and IMO all major businessmen are tied to doing the Kremlin's will (the ex owner of Rosneft can verify that). I

I've clearly rattled your cage, interesting , your motives are difficult to fathom.

Furthermore, surely you understand why governments require US$, same reason they stock Gold, I find it hard to believe you don't. Debts need to be serviced and currencies prevented from crashing (managed) . Rouble at just under 75 to the dollar makes life hard for Russians, they need to ensure it doesn't crumble further as with other currencies.

Back in the credit crunch and the attack on the Rouble, Vlad P made it clear through his political reps that the Oligarchs would be expected to repatriate their Billions if required - as far as I know it never happened , but bear it in mind wrt what is happening here.

A few weeks ago I read an article, which highlighted an issue that all investors in Mining or Oil in risky nations should be aware of, it was about Dollar swaps and the risk of nationalisation or even asset theft in highly pressured nations that need Dollars and can't swap their currencies to service debts.

To be honest I didn't post it because it was against the trend and would probably been accused of scaremongering, however, it doesn't matter now as the theft/confiscation angle is negated.

Here's the thing, many Russian banks are in danger of bankruptcy (check online articles if you don't believe me) they and the state need US$ currency and are not on the favoured nation list (UK and a few other nations are), it will be a huge problem for some nations.

So here's my theory - our Russian shareholder have been given the nod to put the company back into the hands of Russia (nationalise discreetly), so we're selling to a Russian entity that can provide the Gold to the state controlled Russian bank(s) backing the deal without paying in US$ - essentially this could be a con to nationalise the company without being seen to do so.

The value to the Russians is effectively helping free up finance the Russian state. Our buyer is being financed by a major Russian bank.

Is the same going on with POG, our buyer sold 5% of POG recently or are other listed Russian entities about to be pounced on? I advise anyone to do a little research before trashing my suggestion - Russia needs Dollars.

kenj - I agee they won't intervene to protect small shareholders, they don't give a stuff about us, my point wrt to the AGM voting numbers was that they do not have full support of the big shareholders and another opposing party could make life very uncomfortable for them.

The Russian way is to fight with everything you've got - I just hope they have upset some other parties with the finances to hire lawyers that can formulate an objection. This will not look good to the takeover panel particularly if relationships between the main players come to light.

Whatever happens I return to my original point, we have no need to worry and can sit back and wait for things to pan out