Member Info for jointhedots

mozzie - I can't recommend this or any other share, I'm not qualified to do so.

However, I've got lots of my own hard earned money it (my endorsement) and believe the SP could rise significantly "IF" they perform as per their targets and perhaps even more importantly the gold price does not drop significantly it doesn't even need to rise - if it rises appreciably the sky is the limit for all gold miners as it could become a licence to print money. AIMO

The SP is drifting without any direction, even though the gold price remains strong, this is replicated over most of the players in the sector.

It just a matter of time before the persistently high gold prices translate into good or exceptional RNS updates, unless something unexpected happens to upset TSG performance we should all see a good uplift.

I own various gold mining shares, but this is the one I've been involved with for longest and IMO has the best prospects, we all know the downside - in a word "Russia", but it's well and truly priced in.

Should have said results this month, not week, as per production update. So could be any day - I don't know why they couldn't have been more specific.

Guys take a few deep breaths, and try to look beyond the shock - the news is dire I don't think anyone is kidding themselves it's positive as is often the case.

The key takeaway from the RNS is not the reserves reduction, it's that the business proposition is DEAD - those clinging to Dr T's dream will need to get their head round it, we all need to face that (most have) and decide what's left.

The first decision is to sell up and cut losses, many will stick, but why?

Well the RNS wasn't all bad, it left the door open to a very significant NEW business proposition, there will be further twists and turns here when the dust settles, the original business proposition (if not DEAD) is on life support.

But the company is priced as a DEAD duck but it is not the case "Yet".

Results this week, should be good and set us back on the right path. Hopefully more detail on exploration success.

The SP is lacking direction as are most gold miners and we may even still have our seller suppressing the price , but IMO a significant improvement is only a matter of time.

WRT to vein 25 as we know the grade is excellent, but I noticed they have previously said we will transition from the main area rather than simply supplement it so production, grades and crucially costs should all more in the right direction. In mining if less volume of ore and development work needs to be done then the less costs will be - it's very simple and why some small operators have better profitability than large ones.

The poor/surprising SP is no surprise as the BoD have really screwed up by telling the market what the price of a capital raise will be after the investment by our returning ex boss.

In doing so they have allowed the privileged institutions that will take part to pre-sell their shares knowing they are going to pay less than 15p for them (pre-booking profits) and it also permits tail swallowing by many others - it was a major mistake made by the BoD IMO that shareholders are now paying for, all they needed to say was that the second capital raise will be at a discount to the first.

In the end it will all be OK, but that is of no comfort to anyone needing to liquidate now.

Punter - your understanding of what is going appears to be limited to say the least, it was great news. Acquiring high grade assets in the current market is very desirable and I don't care if they borrow money to expand as long as they can safely service the debt the faster they do it the better.

The dilution you are scaremongering about is not new shareholders getting in for nothing - we are getting their assets which our BoD believes they can drive far more value from than the current owners, its' supposed to be a win win deal. You either believe in our BoD's capabilities and proposition or not, if not it makes no sense to be holding shares in any case.

Dilution is only to be feared when the company is desperate and gives away company asset not when expanding sensibly, some of the biggest companies in the world expanded by buying via new shares.

Holding RNS a company disposing a large quantity - good news IMO as the shares look to have been sold as a job lot so someone accumulating in parallel.

Don't know if we will get another RNS from the buyer, foreigners don't have to RNS.

Barrick announced sale today, needs approval but is already agreed so deal already negotiated prior to coup, the mine is apparently not good enough for the world's premier league miners

"Barrick Gold, AngloGold Ashanti sell Mali Morila Mine 2"

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-31/Barrick-Gold-AngloGold-Ashanti-sell-Mali-Morila-Mine.html

"Jackson Hole economic policy symposium to be held online on 27 and 28 August."

Apparently the FED chair is supposed to give a speech on economic policy at 2pm UK time today, depending on what he says it could be a massive day for Gold.

What he says is dissected to the nth degree by analysts and hints of loose economic policy (printing money) should give gold a boost - if it happens it's before market close today.

https://www.cityam.com/jackson-hole-symposium-all-eyes-on-us-federal-reserve-chair-jay-powell/

The debt looks to be easily manageable and could be paid off early if they wished to refinance.

However, I assume the remaining debt is with Coris bank, if so the interest is 9% and needs to be paid in accordance with a repayment schedule that completes next year if paid early the rate rises " Early repayment of the loan is subject to a 50% interest penalty."

So , the company will likely avoid refinancing until the debt is covered and then we should be able to get a deal on a much better terms, it also gives time for the recent unrest and Coronavirus to settle and banks are more inclined to lend.

I would imagine they will need a large new finance deal to develop a new mine risk free, hence the focus on repaying debt (costs must fall every time they make a payment and put the company in a stronger position).

Excellent on all fronts, and H2 should be significantly more profitable.

The Volatility in the gold price is very good for the long term progress of PoG, it may be disappointing to shareholders of gold miners whose share price slips back, but nevertheless it will save the market from a major confidence crash later.

Though the share price reacts daily, we must bear in mind that spikes in gold price are meaningless to profits, TSG sell gold over a year and persistence of the gold price over an extended period is what really matters. Company's never report on what a great spike in gold price did for profits, average prices of gold sold determine the outcome.

Gold prices have risen to new levels and found support above $1900/oz and the long term rising trend is not broken, so all is good IMO.

With that background IMO TSG simply need to deliver good progress, nothing dramatic needed, to reach new SP highs by year end.

Us markets open - lets see the power of Warren Buffett's endorsement of Gold , if any!

I reckon worth anything from $20 up to $50/oz

the great man's fund has bought into Barrick Gold, 1/2 $Billion.

That is seen has significant because he has absolutely rubbished gold as an investment option and steered clear for as long as anyone can remember, so what does he know think? He is seen as a major source of wisdom by so many investors, whatever he does gets scrutinised and adopted by others - will certainly help support gold next week as it's an endorsement of the wisdom of investing in the sector.

Opposition getting very close to accusing the Donald of preparing to cheat in the upcoming election, god know what will happen as we get close to the election - perhaps he'll cancel it and declare himself president for life or chain himself to the oval office desk and say he's lost the key.

Lots of uncertainty means fear and ultimately a desire for safety.

I took a look at the last update and did a few calculation to try to interpolate what is going on and what the likely outcomes for this and next year are.

It is very interesting that H1 this year is the same (near as damn it) as last year, V25 clearly balanced the outcome. On the basis of that and the fact it is opening up I believe the year end outcome in terms of profitability will be the same or slightly better than last year. May be disappointing to some to hear but the company has said so, but this is a year of building for the future - the key is the BoD have the choice and could effectively pick the desired outcome as V25 is so good.

However, for next year , wow , with more V25 feed stock and a full year of strong gold prices profits will soar.

It all hinges on the % of feed stock from V25 and the main area and if the poorer grades in the main area (still good by industry standards) can be improved by accessing new ground.

This year the modest quantity of V25 ore contained a massive 19.8g/tonne which saved the period, whilst the main area appears to be approximately 3.5g/tonne if my maths is right , well below historic levels of over 7g/t. The difference is stalk and IMO they can now simply add the quantity of V25 ore to the mix to achieve the desired outcome - great position to be in but very tempting.

Lets first assume they go all in on V25 in 2021, and make a few broad brush but credible assumptions that they produce the same quantity or ore and all cost remain the same as in 2019 and grades don't change from what we know - in reality they should be improved upon as they have the time to open a new work areas in the main area and the Rouble has fallen.

In a nutshell for 2019, at 7.8g/tonne, an average gold selling price of $1,399/oz produced a revenue of $63.1m , so assuming a gold selling price of $1800/oz the additional revenue , that's ADDITIONAL not total and so most should go to the bottom line:

All gold from V25 at 19.8g/t = ( (19.8/7.8) x (1800/1399) -1) x 63.1 = $143m best case at $1800/oz
50/50 with main area at 3.5g/t = ( (11.65/7.8) x (1800/1399) -1) x 63.1 = $58.2m
25/75 with main area at 3.5g/t = ( (7.57/7.8) x (1800/1399) -1) x 63.1 = $15.7m
All main area gold at 3.5g/t = ( (3.5/7.8) x (1800/1399) -1) x 63.1 = -$27.1m worst case

The difference is huge on processing V25, assuming all else remains the same. the third calculation is simple like for like on grades and simply an improvement based on gold price.

In 2019 profit before tax was $12.6m AISC and production remaining similar then profit should soar in 2021 with any
performance improvement. In the meanwhile 2020 will be steady state, the company said "Our key priority in 2020 is to maintain stable gold production and cost performance at our flagship asset, the Asacha Gold mine."

Strong Buy IMO

I think everyone has now realised 1 man is simply a refernece to it needing ! man to operate - i.e. a small rig.

Of course it's a small rig and low key initially, would anyone really expect them to throw money at the job until they have a clearer picture of what's potentially there. If it's appropriate for the job, then what's the problem, a bigger rig costs more money. They have other prospects to investigate and I think it's obvious capital is better focused on progressing multiple targets if possible. I don't want them to waste my money.

They say it's fully funded to 2022, that's surely tells us more about the company's plans, how can that be fully funded unless the company is also sure in everything else in it's core plans? If you run out of money then you run out of money on all aspects surely unless it's new expenditure?

Whats up with some of you guys, the initial samples are indicative, indicating the area is prospective they don't mean that will be the ultimate grades of any resource, if they where obvious bonanza gold grades the place would already be worked out.

Take it for what it is , an good RNS bout starting a drilling programme in a highly prospective location.

mytton - I did the same this morning, great price, but I couldn't get the highlighted 92p, eventually got 94p.

Says all we need to know about what's going on. price deliberately trashed to encourage sellers, same for most Gold shares. MM's making hay whilst the sun shines.

I first bought into these years ago at around 34p, but I feel more confident now at around £1 with the gold price so high and the macro- economic backdrop, apart from being in Russia(built into price), what's not to like.

tacet - wow $10K/oz

I'd like to dream, but I won't hold my breath mate I think the optimists need Armageddon elsewhere to achieve it, who knows though with the biggest bunch of idiots in my memory running major economies. South china sea tensions are largely ignored here but tensions with many countries are high, loads of other risk areas also exist around the world who knows what could happen to switch the world to risk OFF mode.

A major uplift is always possible as is a slump, anything above $1800/oz is great for TSG, but this is going to be volatile, the boss of Barrick said the same yesterday, he also said he is more interested in the where the gold price settles than any spike or dip. Makes perfect sense for Barrick and TSG alike - that is the price level that determines company revenues unless they hedge.

Lets be realistic , anything over $1800/oz as a base provides for an excellent performance from TSG, the highs and lows simply give the traders a chance to fleece PI's who often react wrongly or too late.