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This is a waiting game, the only downside IMO is the opportunity cost of missing out on the resurgence of bombed out stocks in other sector as the euphoria surrounding a vaccine feeds through. With a balanced portfolio all bases are covered

Gold under pressure again today because of sentiment. positive confidence statistics from the US today being the driver. But rest assured there will be many more flips in sentiment as the US prints money and lets not lose site of the fact that TSG have been selling gold all year at a great price so as we near the end of month eleven a good year end result is already baked in.

In September 2019 the SP maxed out at 129p with gold at around $1530/oz Now gold is bouncing around between 1850 and 1950 $/oz the SP is struggling to hold £1.

Comparison makes a share price fall of at least 22% with the gold price up as of today by approximately 22%. Clearly moved in opposite directions, will that continue? I can't see how that is sustainable unless company performance flounders.

So it looks to me that the SP has nowhere near tracked the gold price up even on a 1 for 1 basis ( bearing in mind miners are supposed to be a leveraged play on gold).

Point is, just to get to fair value the SP needs to rise significantly - this observation holds good for almost all of the small scale gold mining sector. If the BoD deliver in 2021 we should make some good money here in the medium to long term.

It really doesn't matter, there will always be unexplained trades, if there where only buys the company would be worth more than Barrick Gold, if all sell worthless. I just bought a few more (4405 at 98p), they are registered as unknown, it doesn't matter - to quote the annoying saying that has become popular "it is what it is".

IMO we should focus on the company performance and more even importantly it's near term prospects, facts which will drive the price and thus the trades in the long term. It doesn't matter who sells if there is a queue of investors wanting in on the action.

So lets look at performance this year has been more than we could have expected - great progress made. However, production and revenue are well below what one could reasonably expect if you only compare with previous years. That IMO is why the SP is not much higher in the face of tremendous gold prospecting results and a strong gold price.

The costs appear to have gone the wrong way, AISC rising etc. ALL of it IMO is down the the deteriorating grades in the current workings - they've told us clearly why and where the solution lies. What's more it was expected. planned for and mitigated really efficiently. No good pretending, this year will be a decent/profitable performance, but in truth it's a time biding/preparation year, readying for next year when grades will be (should be) much higher and provide a licence to practically print money.

That's why I'm holding and increasing when I can, not based on current trades or sentiment. I'm in a number of Gold miners and have been investing in mining for over 3 decades but I don't know of any currently with such great exploration results that can be brought into production so readily. Underground mining is generally much more difficult than open cut but with the high grades associated rather than low grade bulk operations the profitability (e.g. profit/tonne) can be far far better.

Coronavirus and HUM specific troubles and threats aside as it is all well understood, I think you would have to have lived on another planet for the last couple of weeks not to know about D Trump's attitude wrt the election and it's huge potential for adverse consequences.

He doesn't accept it's result and according to many commentators including his own niece he is very petulant and liable to take vindictive action. This includes sacking staff, defence secretary sacked already and other key staff for the running of government. Those antics, if they actually materialise, including violence from the fringe supporters he riles will potentially drive gold much higher.

But even more significantly, he is reportedly perhaps likely to try to poison relations with Iran and other nations he has tried to bring to heel. It could be anything from goading them into some stupid reaction or sanctions that destroy peace prospects with Iran.

I'm not saying he will, just that we should be aware of the potential for a new driver for gold and even more so oil prices. Anything is possible and a dash for safety havens could occur rapidly with a consequential positive effect on gold miners.

Notwithstanding the above, HUM should have a great outcome for the year and the SP in no way reflects reality, too much risk priced in IMO.

halfpenny - "When the market tanks it'll pull this down with it and everything else. "

jog on mate why be on an investors BB to tell us there is nothing worth investing in, just sit on your hands and stop posting drivel. Your investment strategy is totally baseless, in fact silly and your post at best a provocation/wind up.

Relies on the premise the market is going to tank, with no evidence, AAZ could well go up or down or the market tank/soar but you actually inadvertently betray the fact that AAZ is a good investment in your post.

Incidentally, be careful sitting on your hands it could stop the blood flow to your brain and you miss a great investment opportunity.

Yes the stimulus is going to have to continue in the UK and will supress the £. Almost automatically increases the value of gold priced in $.

But the US is where the action is now and will remain unless Brexit crunch day at year end causes some serious turmoil. All eyes are on the presidential race and market like the idea of Biden because of the expected loose fiscal policy increasing values. Should be good for gold, except there is a major fly in the ointment which will become evident very soon - overall the democrats have had an awful election performance especially for the Senate which they hoped to win. It will potential ruin the Biden presidency (assuming he prevails in his own race) for at least 2 years and stops them printing money.

So generally good, but could have been much better.

WRT the war I reckon a Biden presidency will be more engaging in sorting out problems, Turkey are a Trump supporter whilst Russia will (as will Iran and Israel) want the issue settled before a US regime change IMO - but that is just my speculation. In the meantime I think the we are reaching a point where Armenia and Azeri government s will soon change stances because one wants territory back and the other is happy with the gains position.

Interesting times, but irrespective of the above and I'm sure some will not concur with my assessment, I think we should all be very optimistic for AAZ.

Goldpanda - I'm not a great fan of that idea mate, I'm very positive on AAZ, but I think any celebration of the consequences of a war for commercial reasons is extremely distasteful, as people are still dying and the outcome is still undecided it could even be seen as reckless or provocative.

If Russia step in all could chance, in which case the read across is that AAZ have lost something they don't even have. Much better to assign Zero value to it and keep to the narrative that AAZ operations are outside the conflict zone, the negative potential is high "why shine a light on it?" and it's hard to try to spin conflict and associated risk as a positive. Also what of other asset in the conflict zone, the two countries could be at odds for many years to come and who wants to invest in a raped operation in an area that could be subject to counter-attack anytime.

Lets wait till it's safe and has been assessed as now worth developing, all positive - Ireland looks better at this stage, why not write something about that.

Finally, AAZ is better trying to stay invisible to Armenia, not a celebratory party with valuable assets that deserves to be targeted. Sorry to pour cold water on your well intended initiative.

RNS was great IMO, all looking good for when/if a truce is declared.

No surprises, good or bad, all good in the middle of this pandemic and the *rap being endured by other Russian gold mine shareholders - police investigation at POG and HGM all but stolen (IMO) from shareholders.

The stability created by V25 is very reassuring, god knows what the outcome would have been without V25 to smooth out production - Q4 should be more of the same.

2021 is when TSG will really blossom.

Always assumed they can't spend deposits which is not a problem, but if if is not recognised in the accounts it will skew the performance this year and lead to a bumper performance next as staff are seen to be being retained and paid for generating no revenue when it's not the case. They actually already hold a lot of cash deposits from previous bookers who have chosen to rebook.

Most travel companies must operate similar models and their survival might depend on how they handle their bookings - it's well publicised that even the most prestigious operators are holding onto customer deposits and booking payments, it's pretty obvious why.

Heading down the food chain, Ryanair are not allowing customers to change booking free because they like their customers . They want to retain the revenue, some companies will run out of cash I'm sure if forced to give money back again as they did earlier this year.

In spite of how bad things look at the moment Saga might actually pick up some bargain assets in the next year or two in the form of distressed operators; I recall in the prospectus they mention buying the insurance book of other companies as a potential way of building customer base. Niche travel companies could offer great potential, expansion will be essential as things pick up and operating economies are sought. Of course that means nothing to some of our short term investors who want a quicker turnaround, big money to be made here in the longer term.

Saga are advertising holidays for 2021 and 2022, they are likely to take a lot of deposit money to even out cash flow.

Saga are now using radio advertising to tout their Boutique cruising, I suppose it's too expensive to advertise on the TV at the moment, but clearly they are working on the basis that their planned schedule of cruises will go a head and IMO will sell their differential offering, they also include a mention of the own cancellation policy.

I believe as soon as the next positive noises about a C19 vaccine or treatment are released, the share price at most viable travel companies will rise strongly - there are of course now some zombie companies which will be picked off cheaply

I was writing a similar focused post, read yours afterwards - good points - it is really early days to came any judgement on the success of the corporate activity.

Surely most of us can give it a few weeks at least - I suppose it the nature of current PI investing to quit and move on.

It one thing after another at the moment, buy us out, take us private - for god's sake get real.

Sir Roger can't buy us out or take us private to facilitate his own interests (not withstanding he would have to pay at least £4.05 and be an everybody's idiot) - institutions and lenders just took a painful pill like the rest of us to pursue a strategy he fully endorsed - like we are all going to take a silly offer a short time after the pain when the strategy has not been implemented. Many of us strongly believe (I do) the current price pressure will most likely subside very soon or on first good news.

Think it through guys, if you've just bought in for instance and hope for corporate activity, I think it's more likely to be a purchase or merger - the company is not for sale (unless at a unpalatable buyer premium) having just fleeced shareholders to buy a future, why capitulate?

There is no need to do anything except IMPLEMENT THE STRATEGY and bide our time.

If you've been hit hard or shocked by what has happened to the SP, I fully understand as I'm also nursing paper losses, however I believe we should look forward positively as the SP is currently under intense pressure from manipulation and possibly from those left with more shares than they want adjusting their holdings.

Take a look at the trades and it tells you all you need to know, hundreds of small automatic trades - they only have one purpose, to execute an algorithm to move the SP and surely not to adjust your holding.

The manipulation will stop soon and the company will provide information at the appropriate time that will see the SP move to an appropriate level - no point worrying this is the time for picking up a bargain IMO. Of course not everyone shares that view, but I think we all know what the proposition is and can make our own mind up.

Incidentally, motley and other commentators, do provide a lot of drivel as assessment, 50/50 means nothing except they have on opinion so why waste the words - take them all with a large pinch of salt.

We have a few disruptive posters on the BB, some might say trolls that jump on anyone with a positive point and try to drive a negative agenda.

Not slick like some efforts I've seem, but IMO nasty at it's core - Don't engage with them everyday, it's killing this BB as a decent place for debate.

If I where a betting man, I would wager that smorty365 and matlot are either working together or are one and the same person. They more often than not post together within a few minutes - strange they log on together so often, spooky. lol

smorty, has rubbished many of us for posting opinion, whilst matlot keeps pushing the message " company robbing the elderly and vulnerable for years!"

Do us a favour, over 50s are not elderly or incapable of making decisions, how insulting, ageist to people who are probably much smarter than you and choose to enter into contracts that are sold legally and suit their requirements - not everyone simple wants the cheapest deal on the market, they are a specialist niche supplier and not and never will by the Ryanair of the insurance or travel industry. In the recent documentation the company notes the industry trend of selling policies at a loss and the risk is discussed. They can't compete on every policy and lose customers like everyone else, but trust and reliability, level of cover are important factor to the targeted customers.

The company are taking travel bookings for next year and presumably some deposits. I haven't actually tried to book as cruising is not my thing, all looks fine, supposed 35% discount, but whomever went on a cruise without a discount. It's like discounts from DFS and against RRP on tyres - illusions

I expect next year to be a bumper year for travel companies next year "IF" there is indeed a vaccine or treatment which prevents deaths by the start of spring. There will be huge pent up demand from those who missed out this year and feel they deserve a bit of pampering. Add to that the huge fall in availability of holiday as companies have downsized and I would suggest the money Saga are spending on supporting the travel business now is far from totally wasted - it's just that the benefits are not currently visible (many disappointed travellers from this year have left their deposits).

BA and Virgin and others have cancelled flights and laid off staff, scrapped planes, at the other end of the market, Easyjet and Ryanair released their Summer schedules early and scrapped some of their flights, I believe to take revenue and also give disappointed bookers of cancelled flights the chance to reschedule. I assume some cruise ships have also been laid up and may not restart operations.



Those that position correctly will have a bumper time when C19 is sorted - it's the when that's the problem.

Saga are prepping, and for the moment that's all they can do, those that don't will not be able to respond.

https://travel.saga.co.uk/cruises/ocean/our-ships/spirit-of-discovery.aspx

I feel potential buyers are sitting on their hands at the moment, that's the reason for the SP weakness rather than any substantive selling intent.

I also think when buyers come in they will shift the price substantially up to 12p (180p consolidated) easy, anything above a few % points in excess of that will take time or some operating environment change - that's the norm for a placing

What's going on you may ask, not much IMO, like others I'm happily topping up, and like everyone else I don't know where the bottom SP is or when potential investors will gain the confidence to support the SP by buying a few. But as I said, this is a little interlude (nothing going on to be worried about), herd mentality has taken over temporarily and fear starts to drive the price, that will subside and the SP tend back to the 12p level IMO. Lets not forget, almost all the shares in circulation have an effective purchase price of at least 12p, unless there is a major NEW shock to the business they will not be sold at current levels.

However, this post is primarily to highlight something more important in the long term, "Strategy", as I said the other day our new boss will surely make changes to drive improvements, he's got more at risk than anyone, including reputation. If the management are competent then everything flows down from the strategy and the initial notification on the capital raise is full of it, including as reasoning for his initial purchase:

"...27p per share, a 98% premium to the 13.61p closing price of Saga shares on 28 August 2020, reflecting his belief in the underlying strength of the Saga brand and business and his confidence in the new strategy under the strengthened management team..."

and
"...· Taken actions to reshape the strategy of Tours business; and

· Completed an in-depth strategy review, with conclusions and reshaped plans to be published alongside the interim results and launch of the Proposed Equity Raise on or around 10 September:

o The management team has reviewed every facet of Saga's strategy

o The revised strategy will be based on management's belief that Saga is a strong brand with significant potential and that it is successful where it offers truly differentiated products and services..."

Obviously the strategy is a top level approach and will eventually feed down into action, things are going to change, but we need to give them a chance to do it right. The capital raise allows them to execute it, but too many PI's want instant action to push the SP that is not going to work, it comes down to patience in the end, this is not for those wishing to flip shares over in a few sessions.

Why does anyone want the new boss to provide more cash or think it is desirable - the capital raise has just sorted out the immediate future (12 months at least) . Directors financing companies area last resort and more often than not ends with the said directors grabbing the entire company if the loan defaults - even worse than Bond providers IMO. A
Companies should always borrow via standard channels, from those that will not benefit from a default they can control.

Keep your nerve now guys, we don't need more money, we can refinance when things improve - at the moment confidence is low, trading visibility is poor and we don't know what's next. These are the areas of priceless contribution our new boss can deliver (we don't need his money); we need him to lead and bring in some new initiatives, could be cost saving, new revenue streams and eventually new financing. He isn't going to come in and do nothing so we should assume things will improve, especially confidence - if he gets it right the company will be transformed and shareholders will make significant profit irrespective of C19.

Give him and his team time.

Don't you think some of you are being a tad greedy (some might say foolish) to forgo what is a brilliant price in comparison to any other previous day, just because a few posters suggest they got in at perceived rock bottom. Some may have but I'm sure there are others enjoying winding up shareholders - like the sub 8p joker.

I have not spent my day whinging on the BB, I've bought 3 tranches of shares at 140p+ , you either believe in the turnaround proposition or you don't, I'll take my chances and bide my time- debt is set back a year for repayment as part of the deal so there is now plenty of time to sort the company out with new management, new ships and new capital.