Member Info for jointhedots

Really bad day today for most companies, but gold miners should be a winning sector once reality sets in.

The Russian hack of IT systems (Shenanigans) is now possibly the issue most likely to derail TSG's plans. Supposedly the attach has also been on the UK and other countries. Trump is ignoring it and it is alleged Russian gained the confidence to do it because he has turned a blind eye to their activities, Biden has said it will be at the top of his agenda when he takes office in January - the sanctions or other actions could be punitive of very light. The democrats have unfinished business with Russia.

Having said the above, all else looks very positive, gold price strong, and it might be a storm in a teacup in respect to TSG.

wrongun - I read your post and understood - though I did not take it that way, you are entitled to a viewpoint even if negative. We can't have a debate if everyone just sees things through rosy coloured specs.

I really like TSG and the management are good, but they are not superheroes and have made mistakes like any other company.

There is a tendency of some on the BB to stifle debate by jumping on anything perceived as negative - personally I like healthy debate otherwise we miss learning opportunities and are the poorer for it.

I urge everyone to post their views as long as it is honest and pertaining to TSG, and those that don't like like need to toughen up a bit.

Gold continued to rise since my post yesterday, now up by another 1%, IMO the company is now lagging, having had a very positive update.

I think in the short term we've all paid for the apparent insider trading (or pure coincidence ) the day before the news release, I suspect those smart investors sold into the rise, obviously no Shenanigans though. I wish I could time things so well.

HSS has a long way to go to catch up to the market, most companies in the Covid firing line that will benefit from the vaccine rollout rose strongly on the news of approval.

In contrast HSS has fallen as the capital raise weighed, so we are now in a position of being a stronger company whose SP has not responded to that or the Covid developments. "Yet"

I believe there is a great opportunity to make significant investment returns here as 2021 unfolds.

The RNS's provide good signals on various front - clearly IIs are not selling out as we approach the change to AIM, if they wanted out logic would suggest they would be doing it now.

Second, a very large proportion of shares are held by II's and perhaps the availability of shares in more limited than activity currently suggests.

It also appear to me (IMO) that the company is unloved or overlooked by PI's, just look at the BB posts volumes, I suspect when this moves to AIM there will be a lot more interest. If the II's hold firm then it bodes very well for the new year.

Has been moving up steadily for the last few sessions towards $1900/oz ($1860 currently).

With combined record production, strong gold prices and excellent new grades which should be easily accessible in 2021, really paints a very rosy picture for the coming year.

It may not feel like it to those that are in a prices higher than the placing , but this is a really good start for the company post capital raise. It's almost inevitable that the SP comes under pressure post capital raise but a couple of % point down need to be put into context. it's meaningless with the inevitable overhang of shares that some want to sell and the Brexit nonsense heightening the risk for almost all UK operators.

The company is now poised to grow strongly with the capital to do it and the strategy already being pursued. They must surely also be in a position to secure more financing if necessary as they are presented with opportunities to expand and chase efficiencies.

The SP could move up significantly anytime, but who knows what the catalyst will be or if we'll have to wait until well into 2021, however I don't feel we are at risk of a significant slump so happy to hold and wait. In the current market it's best to be in companies that have plenty of liquidity.

On the topic of simple maths - extra production does not mean proportional extra costs.

AISC where higher than 2019 in the first half of the year as lower grades and working through less productive ground required the extraction and treatment of a bigger volume of material. I posted about this previously

This is one of the anomalies of mining (compared with producing more widgets in a factory), more activity does not necessarily mean more production - that's why the RNS is so Fantastic IMO - because the dramatic improvement in production is down to higher grades so not necessarily associated with higher costs and most importantly can be continued into 2021 and beyond.

When combined with the higher gold prices as the year closes this bodes really well for dividends and prospects for 2021 - I suspect as ever some PI's will be tempted to sell, but they are short sighted to sell on this news IMO.

Now that's the sort of update you dream of from an AIM company

Personally, I'm not assuming anything, leaked news, broker action or big buyer, who knows.

Remember it is Russia with all the associated shenanigans.

Take it for what it is - a small upward movement that is long overdue (many stock has been moving 10% in a session recently). Obviously someone is buying, but the persistence, motive or level are unknown.

Nevertheless, I'm pleased with welcome upward movement.

Interesting to see new posters who appear to be clued up - all are very welcome to help broaden understanding.

The gold grades reported from our recent exploration are exceptional and potentially world class. if the grades prove persistent and the company can keep the production clean from debris from associated mining then we could become a top ten underground producer if the milled material produced > 10g/tonne

The linked article lists the top ten producers of 2020 in Q1, clearly the ones at the top of the list are truly exceptional (42g/tonne for the best simply look like they've got a licence to print money) but generally it looks like 10 to 15g/tonne covers most of the top 10 are indeed world class.

Notice not one mine is in Russia

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-11-27/Highest-grade-underground-gold-mines-in-Q1-2020.html

I think the high grades for V25 have been somewhat by investors. especially as these areas don't need years to develop, we'll be producing from their next year.

They said:
22/10 - "TSG intends to provide a production update for Q4 2020 in January 2021."
28/10- "We look forward to updating our JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate statement at the end of this year, which will incorporate all of the new drilling results and exploration data. "

and back in the interims released 29/09 they said:

"Upgraded dividend guidance for the full year to be announced shortly"
and
"Our business has structurally improved as we mine a higher grade deposit and generate attractive free cash flows from our operations. We are pleased to declare our largest single dividend payment ever and maintain our objective of delivering attractive returns to shareholders."

When they said "shortly" I expected a few weeks.

Some impatient shareholders might say "shortly" has been and gone with performance for the year now all but secured barring a major unforeseen disaster - we should surely expect a imminent confirmation RNS of delivery of more attractive returns to shareholders." In the form of an attractive dividend.

Lots to optimistic about for shareholders here.

We are due an update on a number of fronts, perhaps the one most likely to move the SP could be the a promised indication of the full year dividend.

IMO the SP is fine around the £1 mark at this stage of their transition to much higher grade mining areas.

This company have never been backward about returning cash to shareholders, and they are in great financial shape that looks likely to strengthen in 2021.

The US may be dragging their heels on a stimulus package, but other countries are also printing money - Japan announced a massive boost yesterday. Only a matter of time become the US get theirs through the senate and there is a boost in the Gold price.

"Japan unveils $708 billion in fresh stimulus with eye on post-COVID growth"

https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-stimulus-idUSKBN28I095

I can only get a quote of 1000 shares at the moment at just under 98p.

Follows the bad Brexit news and subsequent small spike in gold price.

If no deal is agreed, safe havens for your money in the UK will be in short supply. #TSG could be the silver (gold) lining to a bag of sh*te that Brexit looks likely to turn out to be.

TUI announced it had raised the capital it could need to see it through further disruption through to summer - the big players sorting themselves out for the future bodes very well for the likes of SAGA.

Not only is there a possibility of being taken out at a premium be one of them - it creates confidence in the sector that it is investable and will be resilient when things improve.

All great news - spin the logic and imagine seeing one of the big players collapse would knock confidence in all in the sector.

Further down the food chain there is a good chance SAGA itself (which is no longer distressed) can acquire some distressed assets for a pittance, even in the insurance sector where SAGA includes buying policy blocks/books as an expansion option.

Pianista - you comment "Reading between the lines, the main obstacle to the resumption of cruising is, or hopefully has been, Raab's stubbornness."

IMO that statement is far too flattering to Draab, he is not stubborn, don't go endearing him with any solid principles - he'll bend with whatever is to his own political advantage and can to presented as a win for his party.

Looks like big shareholders altering holding or restructuring relationships, certainly they are not dumping or acquiring share or the SP would move fast IMO.

The UK is going to print Billions and the US will print Trillions, it's just a matter of how many 2, 3 or 4 trillion and when.

Strangely, it could all depend upon a US election. It's not Biden v Trump though. Whomever controls the Senate controls the purse strings as they need to approve the President's/Congresses spending proposals.

The Republicans will block Democrat spending on ideological principles and to simply frustrate Biden's efforts - it's a mess with all the hatred created by Trump.

I'm sure many of you know but for those that don't follow US politics the impact cannot be overstated as sentiment for the next couple of years could depend upon it (2 seats up for grabs to control the Senate to be decided in January).

A huge support package together with the likelihood of loose financial policy from Democrats
will set gold up for another good year in 2021 - $US weakness is obviously very bullish.

Whatever happens there will be huge spending, it's either going to be positive or fantastic news for gold.

rax - the SP is reacting to the Gold price, nothing wrong with the news, many gold miners down today with risk on sentiment dominating the market.

It will correct IMO, these things work their way out as long as the business proposition holds good there is no need to worry.