Member Info for jointhedots

Sharky1975 - there are numerous sellers, the_shareminator's viewpoint captures what is going on - some people sell for no reason other than they are anxious that the SP will retreat after a good rise - hence it becomes a self fulfilling mantra they swear by "it always happens". The old "Buy on the rumour sell on the news" type trade, that makes no logical sense as an investor. In the past I've held shares for over 2 decades - who does that now!

All good IMO, those that want out should go, the sooner the better at lower prices so they take less money out of the pot.
If you are an investor who believes in the business proposal it is of no consequence, if you are trading in and out then you made a minor error of judgement, IMO you'll get another chance.

No good kicking yourself though, so did many others and the_shareminator, as (s)he freely admits - the SP could very easily have continued upward then the sellers would have been cursing themselves instead of congratulating - hindsight is a wonderfully useless gift.

Don't worry yourself though, it will all come good and IMO there is no big seller, and even if the entity exists it can stop this, it's all down to the speed at which events unfold, including a direction for the Gold price which is practically rooted at around $1850/oz. Even if it doesn't budge, AAZ are going to be making tremendous profits this year.

Even the slight retrace is unwarranted IMO, perhaps not surprising though - it is the nature of the market, what is and isn't justified makes no difference. Some people sell based of charts signals, timelines, sell on the news, sell on a new high, sell at the end of the week or I suspect often to move the money elsewhere always chasing the rainbow and a whole batch of other illogical reasons unrelated to the quality of the prospects and proposition.

However for me, the stuttering share price creates a problem for me, only in agonising over selling other shares to buy more a AAZ something I always resist, the vast majority shareholder will be totally unphased now that so much news ins in the public domain. IMO Quality will prevail in the end.

Just to make onr thing clear, I have no financial interest in Scotgold and have taken a look at it this morning with a view to investing, as I'm invested in numerous Gold mining companies - so checked the Annuals etc.

LinViews - no need to wait until AGM, according to Annuals the plant was provided by a South African outfit "Appropriate Process Technologies" , laughable really when it look like the plant is anything but appropriate, I couldn't help a little chuckle on seeing a motif on the bottom of their webpage "TIME IS MONEY" - really? lol

"On 14 February 2019, SGZ Cononish Limited entered into a contract with Appropriate Process Technologies Pty Limited for the fabrication of the processing plant to be used for processing ore at the Cononish mine."

However, it looks like they didn't sign a turnkey deal where the supplier was responsible for everything, so who knows who is to blame, I can't say I recognise the contractors name, looks like some lucky local supplier.

"On 5 November 2019, SGZ Cononish Limited signed a contract with Dan Herrick Construction Limited for the installation of the processing plant purchased from Appropriate Process Technologies Pty Limited. The initial contract amount was £552,279 and was increased to a revised contract amount of £637,199 on 10 June 2020."

https://www.aptprocessing.com/

Hope that helps.

I shall not be investing at this stage because of the shareholder structure and loan associated with the Chairman makes it too risky for me until decent production is realised. DYOR

In-long : "Oh yes..I also hope the shorters get burnt good an properly but also suspect they'll get were they want to be before the big return."

I hope so too, in fact I wish all those that contrive to trash companies, which lets not forget provide jobs and income to society, an absolute disaster in their financial endeavours - I have been investing for decades and have never shorted (though at times I could have made good profits) I believe it to be unethical to try to destroy a business.

Chatbot - to answer your question, I don't know anyone's depth of knowledge, though I'm sure there are many smarter than me wrt investment, I was not trying to insult anyone. Just trying to scotch the idea as I really do not want any investors (some of whom may be newbies) to be tempted by the crazy idea.

We need to let the company handle it, by delivering shareholder value, then the sky is the limit for the SP, I was trying to help but I do know most don't need it.

I assume you guy are joking wrt a short squeeze, if not you are seriously out of your depth.

Looks like we are taking a little rest whilst the price consolidates.

Support at round 165, with no appetite to sell below that level, looks like the days of 120 to 140 may be behind us. With so much potential news-flow from multiple opportunities I suppose that it's a simple question - do you want to be in or out?

Some will not like the business proposition for one reason or another, and that's fine, buy something else, but IMO there is no specific event or catalyst to wait for now as AAZ is on the verge of becoming a multi-asset producer with massive reserves . But most importantly IMO, the company is a "proven" profitable operator that has the skills to exploit what they own and may soon own, it's not all hot air. There are loads of gold miners with licence area containing lots of gold, but unlike AAZ they have neither the money or the skill to get the stuff mined at a realistic cost.

Yes - looks like the MMs are testing the market.

MM have just closed the spread to 1p. I always assume that to be a signal that they want the market to tell them where to go next .

Doesn't mean you could buy or sell in quantity though.

The two directors appear so pleased and enthused, the cats that got the cream.

Even comment they are still prepared to consider new opportunities, definitely got the bit between their teeth.

adam - the Russians are not in permanent control of anything, they are peacekeepers not occupiers. There be invitation of the Azeri's who almost certainly wanted to continue to prosecute the war. Whatever was agreed wrt boundaries for sovereignty will be applied - the Azeri's and AAZ will be aware of the intracacies of the agreement and who was designated to be in control.

The Russians will not want to engage with either regional party and have an exit strategy or they open up a huge can of worms

rich - good post.

This is hovering with the SP in the doldrums, but the business is very strong and in a sector that is not trashed by C19.

Who knows what will precipitate a significant recovery, but IMO something will, I own shares in 3 gold miners in high risk location and this is the only one which has lost ground recently - but I'm just as happy with my investment here (added today) because I believe in the business proposition and this is a winning investment on my timescale.

I'm a buyer of Gold stock until C19 is under control and even more so now Joe Biden is getting the cheque book out, his finance lead is Janet Yellen who has said the US should spend heavily to boost the US economy out and addressing foreign policy rather than looking inward is a boost (Africa should benefit as strongarm tactics are resisted).

According to recent holding RNSs Northern Trust (Custody) went from:
9.39% to below 5% on 01/10/2020
N/A to 9.39% on 01/07/2020
5.88% to below 5% on 01/07/2020
N/A to 5.88% on 24/09/2019

Large holding movements for Northern and the only party to RNS any change since June, with no counter party announcing any holding change. Furthermore, as the only II to announce and seemingly were on a selling trend pre announcement, are they not then the main suspect for selling out their position on the update. Historically, they don't seen to feel they need disclose below 5%, maybe that why no RNS!

However, I believe some other party is either not disclosing or Northern Trust (Custody) reporting is not aligned with actual trades. Who bought shares? I suspect Northern Trust (Custody) which is a huge outfit managing $1.2trillion, yes trillion is correct, for high net worth individuals and Pensions worldwide, if they had decided to sell then they would simply offload cheaply to a MM (rather than piddling about drip feeding the market) and not bat an eyelid.

MMs could now hold the shares on their behalf or have bought and executed sells depressing the market for some time, only requiring the client disclose when complete thus avoiding a declaration. For some time across small cap shares I have held the view that the main enemy is the MM not disclosed shorters who are factored in, MM could (and allegedly) do the same thing themselves without declaring any short.

Warning, be aware, some PI's are not, each MM can buy up to 10% of the company without disclosing anything, slowly bleeding the shares into the market to control sentiment or maximise their profit. Investors often ask why consistent buying doesn't make the SP rise - well there is one reason. The logic is each buy is matched by a sell, well eventually Buys to match Sells but not day to day or week to week as some think, the MMs delay the balance process in the market.

If it is them, as I suspect then that accounts for the big drop after the latest update, according to LSE almost 23m where traded on the day, if you divide by 2 that is 11m shares or 20% of the company, that surely should have precipitated an RNS from someone (not MMs though) - as management own a large slice of the shares the % is even more pronounced - I have a strong suspicion that some entity is hiding something and that same entity possible a MM is supressing the SP ready for another big pay day when they can safely walk the price up.

All IMHO of course, we all have our viewpoint, whatever there is huge potential for a correction here.

55,367,349 shares in issue

Guys I think you are getting to the heart of things, I put together a post yesterday and decided not to post it because I didn't want to look paranoid and spreading conspiracy theories - but things don't sit easy with me , I believe there is an entity playing around with this and MM's are most likely assisting and shorters are merely opportunists taking advantage. I will post my thoughts from yesterday shortly, I've changed my mind after just seeing others suspecting similar and trying to buy more (great price) and only being able to get a quote for 1000 shares until just when I bought at 73.8p, if the price is so weak why can't I buy freely. It's being contrived to sap confidence and maximise profits for someone, if or when demand grows IMO the MMs will lock buyers out unless at a significant premium, until then they'll keep pushing down, it's a win either way for them. Whatever, like other I also believe some information, but you should know there a exceptions were holding RNSs can legitimately be withheld and there is nothing compelling foreign shareholders to submit.

One other thing the visible shorts are meaningless in pushing the price down, once placed they can't push further and actually represent dormant demand, it's hidden shorts, allegedly MM's doing it with impunity that do the damage.

Those that are foolish enough to sell on a very bullish RNS are better off out of it. It's the wrong company for you, but try finding something better, you'll soon realise your mistake.

Nevertheless , it means nothing in the scheme of thing, and get one thing straight, it is not a dividend cut "it's a SPECIAL (additional) dividend that needs to reflect recent events - the main dividend will still be paid if appropriate.

Just above a penny, is is nominal in truth and simply fulfils a promise and shows their intent going forward to reward shareholders

As someone ported a short while ago that the money is better being preserved and available to spend on quickly developing assets, the inference from the RNS is also that the company truly believes they will get the assets back soon. They are preparing for it now!

Some might be disappointed, but I think the vast majority of shareholders will be very pleased. Onward and upward.

aprog - here's a few things

https://www.geopromining.com/points-in-armenia/

Owner Siman Povarenkin 50.32% share
https://www.rumafia.net/en/dosje/565
Owner Roman Trotsenko 48.186 share
http://www.rumafia.net/en/dosje/554

Apparently there are two main shareholders in GPM, but before you feel any sympathy for them, both are not only very rich, they have nice entries on the Rumafia website. Easy to find mainstream press reports link - Siman Povarenkin to Arron Banks, Russian gold mines to Russian interference in Brexit(they allegedly where elated with the outcome and possibility of Scottish independence) to spies etc, etc then the other guy Siman Povarenkin is Igor Sechin's right hand man - Igor Sechin is a Vladimir Putin favourite, head of Rosneft and allegedly the most dangerous/powerful man in Russia behind Putin. I'm not digging any further as there are links to all sorts of things, fingers in lots of pies, some sceptics might allege Arron Banks does not appear to a great defender of team GB. Who'd of thought the characters would link back to Putin and a Brexit champion. lol

I also checked out how mines in Armenia are allocated, apparently/allegedly Wikipedia politicians and shady individuals are often granted them and it is corrupt, it stuck me that would flavour the Azeri government's attitude, i.e. no sympathy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mineral_industry_of_Armenia#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Armenian%20Development,mines%20are%20currently%20being%20exploited.

I thought GPM employed 900 people in Armenia/ captured territory but apparently it is 2500 so IMO this has massive implications for Armenian politicians who will want to do a deal that secures revenue and jobs. It's not just a matter of 2 or 3 licences.

From our perspective, information is power and knowing who they are IMO is really good news as they are often hidden behind shell companies if investing in the West.

Nervous shareholders note - if you invest in these areas you must expect to come across these characters and your company to fight hard; as a repeat investor in Eastern Europe/Russia this is not the first or even second company I've invested in where questionable characters and politicians pop up (POG, HGM to name just 2 in the sector).

Zod and it's broader area is likely the most valuable asset, I can be bothered to dig any deeper or wrt the other assets, those that where in control no longer hold sway.

Mos - I cant' answer Q1 directly, anyone can make anything up, suffice to say anyone invested thinks the price will go up and personally I currently intend to be in for the long haul, unless they screw up.

Q2, the answer is out there in the results of the displaced companies, yes they've taken gold out but they have identified new resources and most importantly set up the mines and developed the reserved (dug the hole) to assess reserves. According to the biggest Zod, there is CURRENTLY 18 years mine life remaining (mine life invariably extends as mines develop further), so no need to worry:

"GPM Gold owns and operates the Zod open-pit mine and the Ararat Gold Recovery Plant located in Eastern Armenia. The Ararat Gold Recovery Plant was upgraded with the latest Albion technology in 2014, increasing throughput gold recovery to 88%. Gold output in 2018 totalled 130,000 oz. Implementing the Albion technology allowed GPM Gold to switch from oxidised to sulphide ore. GPM Gold produces and sells Au-Ag Dore bars. The LOM is 18 years, based on current reserves."

Is very true in this case, AAZ where robbed of their assets many years ago as where the legitimate Azeri government.

Azeri's will feel aggrieved and elated at the same time as I'm sure AAZ founder shareholders will, but the situation also brings to mind the old saying "Possession is 9/10th of the law"

Now back in control of the assets the Aziri government have to decide on how to progress. It would be perfectly legitimate for them to demand compensation from the companies and other parties that have taken out gold and otherwise benefitted. Potentially a lot of cash for them and possibly AAZ.

What springs to mind is all the equipment and development work which will likely to be claimed, many 10s if not hundreds of £millions (I've not checked the latest accounts of the companies involved, but they will have spent plenty), the fact that Russian or Armenian companies paid for it is by the by - they didn't care that they exploited assets they did not have legal claims upon. So I suspect they either pay significant compensation or lose everything and even then still risk being legally challenged for compensation now losses can be assessed.

Question is I suppose - Will AAZ get a share of any compensation paid. I hope the Azeri's are stopping any of the companies taking away the equipment. Some equipment can cost huge sums at open cut mines.

Now back in control of the assets the Aziri government have to decide on how to progress.

AAZ may want to tell the previous occupiers to get stuffed or may actually want to do deals with the displaced miners for access to facilities in Armenia, exploration information, workforce, suppliers etc, but they will now be negotiating from a position of strength. Interesting and possibly very lucrative time to be an AAZ shareholder.

I suspect we will hear very little of what goes on, on the ground, at least until the assets are fully secured.

There's a little bit here:

https://eng.az24saat.org/2020/10/27/foreign-gold-producer-in-azerbaijan-may-develop-fields-in-zangilan/

Most interesting for me as it most likely applies to each restored licence is that the company will get a 49% share and Azeri government 51% with a licence 5 years exploration and 25 years total exploitation - as major operations are already developed that equates to practically a 30 year operation. No time pressure or work schedule to worry about and with any luck very early revenue

The linked article (13 years OLD and obviously things have moved on) provides an interesting insight of the early history of AAZ, it's key characters, assets and the disposition of those that sought to grab the soon to be restored assets - looks like AAZ was very well connected and have longstanding commitments from the Azeri government with regards to the restoration of the assets and compensation.

The development this week is very interesting and IMO may lead to compensation and/or new mines and/or operational partnerships, I suspect there will be negotiations as the existing operators will have assets/employees and income they want to protect; whatever the outcome it will be lucrative for AAZ and the SP movement so far is tiny compared to the possibilities as 2021 unfolds.

From article:
"There's another rub. According to Anglo Asian, it holds the licences for all six prospects, which it terms "contract areas". In April 2005, the company says it signed a production sharing agreement (PSA) with the Azerbaijan Government on dividing up the cash proceeds when the prospecting gives way to operational mines. "

https://hetq.am/en/article/6541