Member Info for jointhedots

Of course for anyone leveraged in the actual commodity, it would hammer their investment.

Hope no one here is dabbling directly in commodities, IMO mining companies are much better options, even if you don't like AAZ.

I've got a pretty high risk tolerance level but I couldn't rest if leveraged, pure gambling.

I agree he should get booted out along with a few others that have underperformed, he's the boss he should be accountable - however, sadly the reality is it rarely happens and they keep drawing a fantastic remuneration package for failure.

I wouldn't get too upset, it's barely more than 3% from where it's been trading for weeks - tomorrow is another day, and AAZ make excellent money at any decent price which will bankrupt many operators.

" hammered the daylights out of gold" is a bit strong. it's a disappointing downward movement so far.

Flycat - bless, if you are going to deramp you may as well stick the boot in good and proper - don't bother buying in as you can't see an entry point, we'll soldier on without you. But thanks for your deep insight and the extensive work you've put in.

Apparently restoring them was a part of the peace agreement and it seems it is one thing everyone agrees on and desperately wants. The linked articles discuss why and highlight that the second high level meeting (deputy Russian premier chairman) has just taken place and they agreed a further meeting of expects starting tomorrow. This route is apparently the one AAZ highlighted as opening up the Ordubad contract area (not one of the restored ones) can benefit greatly from:

"According to the statement released following the January 11 summit, routes that were operational during the Soviet era yet have been closed since the first Artsakh War will be rebuilt. Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic will be connected by a route crossing through the town of Meghri in Armenia’s southernmost Syunik province. "

That is the province where out mine is currently isolated, no access except via Iran.

This is what the company said in the restoration update:

"The exclave of Nakhchivan hosts the Company's Ordubad contract area. Nakhchivan is currently separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by the Syunik region of southern Armenia. As part of the agreement to cease hostilities, a corridor through the southern part of the region will be given to Azerbaijan to build direct road and rail links between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan. These projected transport links will greatly aid the Company in its efforts to develop and exploit the resource potential of its Ordubad contract area in Nakhchivan."

I didn't realise the importance of it, I though it would be a small provincial road, but apparently if a corridor is established it opens up use potential business opportunities for all parties. Armenia and Azerbaijan would benefit , but including Russia, Turkey and other regional countries:

"The Nakhchivan Corridor will create new economic opportunities for the regional countries as well. Using this corridor, Turkey will directly access Azerbaijan without using the land routes of Georgia and Iran," he noted.

Russia can also benefit from the new corridor by using its active railway connections with Azerbaijan to easily access Turkey, Iran and Armenia, Baghirov said, adding that the road could also serve as an alternative route for Russia into Middle Eastern markets."

https://armenianweekly.com/2021/02/03/opening-of-transport-links-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan-commences-amidst-another-prisoner-exchange/
https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/azerbaijan-armenia-and-russia-hold-first-meeting-to-restore-regional-transport-links-2021-2-3-0/

As the company said they are in the hands of the Azeri's as to when it's safe to go to the sites.

The Azeri's in turn are publishing video's to show the devastation caused by the Armenians during the occupation (not the war), they are very bitter and I'm sure will suggest the territory is all but destroyed, the mining sites are probably one of the few places they did spend money, as it was foreigners providing it.

They are also reporting that the Turkish army have sent over a hundred bomb disposal experts to help ongoing efforts to locate and eliminate planted devices - good enough reason for our guys to wait for the go ahead.

WRT to the article I posted yesterday about the Turkish military presence, the value of that is highlighted as some idiot apparently fired from the Armenian side yesterday, the sooner they get it through their heads they lost and the territory is lost for good the better.

Finally, someone a while ago queried the wisdom of going into Ireland for gold mining, especially as there is no one else operating/interested. Well I came across a new outfit planning a mine in Northern Ireland. They appear well advanced, even have jobs advertised on their website. When or if they get going, that may well provide a boost in confidence to our venture, when or if that happens. Lots of if, buts and maybe's, then I guess everything starts that way

No doubt they'll list once up and running, maybe a future one for mug AIM punters like me. lol

https://dalradian.com/the-curraghinalt-project

https://dalradian.com/about-dalradian

Bottled, I'm fine, I can't share my investment quantity with you, I never do that on any investment. For various reasons that are obvious, .but reason enough though is that it usually reverts into shareholders bragging or exaggerating and accusing others of lying.

What I can say is that I'm long and I'm always long or considering buying in any share where I post. I'm bothering to research and post because I have a meaningful holding and I'm considering buying more as there are events/positives are unfolding in leaps and bounds. My stance is always very clear from my posts - hope that helps you see where I'm coming from.

That's interesting, they have their own tax rate that differs from the national rate, OK.

However, the full royalty arrangement you highlight will not come into effect for a long time at least 2023, in fact only if AAZ stop developing and become even more profitable will that the scenario fully kicks - if you consider that more deeply, if they stop spending then the profitability would rise substantially (would not be like for like as is your 50m profit example) and the headline profit figure higher. So the pie to share out would be bigger. I think my logic is correct.

From accounts:
"The Group's current business plans indicate that these costs will not be fully recovered until at least 2023 and the effective royalty of 12.75 per cent. will therefore continue until then."

I logged on to post another article, not tax, I came across today, IMO probably the best news.

I was not aware that the Turks where involved in the maintenance of the peace settlement in conjunction with the Russians (working together), that's excellent as the Azeri's now have the clout to ensure the Armenians are never temped to launch a counter offensive and even the Russians will need to respect the Azeri's with a powerful regional NATO member present.

IMO this setup now means the chance of one of the little players Azerbajan or Armenia starting another conflict are greatly diminished.

To underline the relationship, they have just begun a large scale joint military operation near the border with Armenia, the message could not be clearer for Armenia - they may grumble but can do nothing.

https://www.rferl.org/a/turkey-azerbaijan-military-drills-near-armenia-/31081368.html

Guys Interesting to try to bottom this out, but I'm not sure your numbers are all correct and correct for the the life of the projects.

For instance where does 32% tax come from, it's 20% corporation tax with exceptions for certain operations which are exempt.

I suspect you're looking for a problem that certainly doesn't exist now, and may never materialise in any case. The profits margins for AAZ are excellent and operating costs very low, they make money that's the bottom line. All governments demand a big share of profits one way or another and if they don't get a good share then they start coveting the assets and think of nationalisation (there are those that now fear this in poorer jurisdictions than Azer where government finances are under pressure).

I'm a little contrarian on tax, I've always wished I could be faced with paying a huge tax bill (no sympathy rich people moaning) on my shares trading and have the massive problem of dodging it, because you only pay tax on profits - the year I'm faced with a £1m tax bill is the year I retire.

Same principle applies to AAZ, if they clear the capital expenditure costs quicker especially when expanding it will be because they make huge profits, the more they make the more they pay but where's the problem when it's such a lucrative operation, they merely expand quicker to set the ultimate payment to their liking.

https://www.caspianlegalcenter.az/insights/more/corporate-tax-azerbaijan#:~:text=The%20corporate%20income%20tax%20rate,certain%20discounts%20for%20small%20businesses.

The linked article seems to contain the information about the Kyzlbulag deposit that was RNSed . that Vallex has operated - I'm not sure but believe a Russian bank has now claimed it (in dispute) after Vallex went bust.

Lots of information but most interestingly, shows a very substantial and new processing plant, that if we're lucky could be confiscated for the partnerships use.

Also states that the mine open-pit was only started around 2016 when the plant was built - so logically they have hardly touched it reserves and more likely have spend their cash and gone bust developing it.

It looks like a very substantial set-up is ready to go.

As with all the recovered sites there will likely be a lot of parties claiming to be innocent victims that need to be respected, personally I don't think the Azeri's will have any of it unless forced to, they see them all as a bunch of thieves/looters. Looks like tons of money has gone in, probably mostly Russian.

https://asbarez.com/143995/new-mining-complex-inaugurated-in-karabakh/

In addition to the $78m/ammum +++ potential profit from ZOD, the recent article linked touches on the illegal occupation and involvement of various parties, interesting from our perspective are the suggested attempt there will be to prosecute for damages an owner of Vallex, who owned one of the mines and is Swiss/Armenian and owns a fanmous watch brand. They apparently made $177.5 (though as with ZOD probably under reported) over 8 years, eventually going into liquidation - I think a Russian bank now owns it

I would be surprised if AAZ couldn't do significantly better by operating efficiently and legally - it's clear these mines can deliver very significant revenues and profits; and as the company says there are many other potential mining opportunities and it's clear AAZ are the Azeri partner of choice

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-unscrupulous-profiteers-of-armenia-s-nagorno-karabakh-occupation-/2041427
"
Between 2009-2017, the Switzerland-registered Vallex Group managed by Vartan Sirmakes, and Base Metals JSC, headed by Valeriy Mejlumyan and Arthur Mkrtumyan, made a declared profit of $177.5 million from the occupied Karabakh’s precious metal deposits. As such, it is claimed that the brand Franck Muller is indirectly involved in the breach of international law and the financing of the illegal occupation of the territories in question.

The Swiss-Armenian businessman planned to build a plant in Armenia to process the precious metals extracted in Karabakh. He signed a memorandum with the Armenian government in 2014, according to which the plant was slated to become operational by 2020. As Switzerland remains the second biggest importer of Armenian products, Sirmakes planned to label the gold, illegally obtained from the occupied Azerbaijani territories, as “Armenian precious metals”.

Hikmet Hajiyev, an assistant to the Azerbaijani president, stated [5] that the gold mines of Zangilan had been liberated and that further legal prosecution awaited Vartan Sirmakes. His acts constitute not only a violation of international law but also tarnish Swiss neutrality and image. Azerbaijan already applied [6] to INTERPOL to arrest the people involved in illegal economic activities in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

Tofig Husein-Zadeh, a brand strategist and business writer, stated that “the leaks about these illegal investments triggered a brand scandal which will turn into a reputational crisis.” He added, “further investigation of Vartan Sirmakes’ illegal gold mining and other corporate crime or unlawful investments will bring new and greater consequences.”

Sirmakes is only one example of hundreds of occupation profiteers. Moreover, gold is not the only contraband that passed through the occupied territories.
"

Contrariwise - the share of profit is as you suggest, rather than a royalty the Azeri's own 51% but don't operate.

Of course AZZ can offset capital expenditure but I recall reading somewhere (last accounts maybe!) that the company negotiated the payment. presumably so that the Azeri's receive a decent amount rather than getting nothing when AAZ has a bumper year but has historical costs to offset. I may be wrong, but it seemed to me to be run like an amicable partnership rather than company VS regulator - in the end though it finishes up 49/51 split of net profits.

I would also point out that the country is ranked No34 out of 191 in the world bank's list of countries for ease of doing business, ahead of Switzerland only only just behind many big industrialist nations - it is apparently a place where contracts and the rule of law are respected - very important where investing in frontier countries IMO.

https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/rankings

Another interesting ZOD article from only a few days ago, the Armenians and locals stand to lose massive tax revenue and jobs.

IMO they will want an amicable deal , the Azeri's take the view the region has been looted and will be very tough on all involved including the Russian banks who appear to be into these sites for $100s of millions and companies and oligarchs who have lined their pocket.

https://eurasianet.org/following-war-with-armenia-azerbaijan-gains-control-of-lucrative-gold-mines

I've been doing a bit of digging into ZOD, it is known by other names which pull up different information - Soyudlu gold mine (also known as Soutely, Zod, or, in Armenian, Sotk)

Generally we must remember that Armenia is an impoverished country that is allegedly run by politicians that like to dip their fingers in the pie and grab chunks for themselves, they also appear to be deeply involved and dependent on Russian companies and banks, all highly opaque

Interestingly, the extracts from a 2017 article below strongly suggest the operator has been under reporting the VOLUME of gold extracted and the QUALITY to reduce headline profitability/tax liability, and so the apparent profit of $78.2 back in 2017 and prior to the major increase in gold price should bring a massive smile to all AAZ shareholders. Long article looking at the murky side, worth a read IMO.

https://hetq.am/en/article/80135

" ...The Chamber found numerous violations, but they were never sent to the prosecutor's office. The government, namely former Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and Minister Armen Movsisyan, covered it all up...

The ministry reported that the State Mineral Resources Inspectorate conducted inspections at GPM Gold in 2013, 2015 and 2016. As a result of the 2013 and 2015 inspections, violations of design and subsoil use contractual obligations were recorded and the company was subjected to administrative liability only in the amount of AMD 100,000. As a result of the 2016 inspection, more violations were recorded. Specifically, the State Mineral Resources Inspectorate revealed that the company had violated the requirements of the Mining Code and the obligations set out in the 2012 agreement, and did not perform the work in accordance with the terms of the mining agreement and the project.

Moreover, the company has submitted reports to the authorized body, according to which 1,019,511 tons of ore, 4064.46 kg of gold was repaid from the balance of the deposit during the inspection period. Meanwhile, according to the daily inventory of the reserves’ change, the ore was 1,015,139 tons, gold – 4017.95 kg. The difference was 4,372 tons of ore; 46.51 kg of gold.

Additionally, in several samples participating in the mine balance, the gold content did not correspond to the actual content of the laboratory analysis, as a result of which the amount of gold in the ore mined was small, which, in turn, resulted in a significant reduction in the amount of gold recovery from the balance sheet.

According to the basic technical parameters of the Sotk mine development, GPM Gold's annual profit is $78.2 million.

According to the information provided by GPM Gold, $159 million was invested in Sotk from 2011-2016 and $ 10 million is expected to be invested this year.

Simple arithmetic shows that GeoProMining Gold has long since recouped all its investment in its two years of profit."

Bottled- I'll state my opinion as others do and happen to disagree in this case, I have not argued the nitty gritty stuff and accepted responses, as I try very hard not to be rude or offend, I'm sure those I'm challenging won't lose any sleep. I don't know what on Earth I could be desperate about, apart from not having more shares.

I repeat my viewpoint, many posters are clearly looking to buy more shares cheaper as evidenced by their own posts (you also), hence FOMO is an apt comment, and I disagree with some assessment of timelines. Am I not supposed to say?

Lets not be lightweight here, I won't be shut up, the posters and you can surely take criticism and challenges, they came back with responses, as I often do - it's called debating. It's pretty boring if we simply ignore what we don't agree with and stroke each others ego. I'm not looking for friends, I want read posters viewpoints and ideas. Disagreement is normal, dare I say essential for us to learn.

Incidentally, I notice you post lots of links - I for one appreciate anyone sharing information, keep the good work up.

I think the Reddit orchestrated short squeeze at Gamestop is an extremely dangerous tactic, however, it's nice to see shorters get hurt.

I read over the weekend that they were now turning their attention to silver, it is suggested that it is crazy as there is no shortage of silver but we'll see - apparently silver has risen strongly again today and according to the BBC some mining companies up to 60% up.

If silver soars, I can't see gold remaining untouched by the phenomenon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55882758

Hasn't reached here jet, but still I've given up trying to apply logic to these things - it is possible that the trickle could be come a stampede and any small mining company especially in precious metals sector where stock is tight could benefit from the ripples, as could gold.

Interesting to watch how the market for silver develops if nothing even else.

I'm not in agreement, as I'm not a trader, it is very interesting now, you won't be able to put it on hold until August, lets be realistic it's all down to events and you don't control any events except your own selling/buying and I think you both know it and will be on the buy side soon. You're simply looking for cheaper shares and suffering form a bad case of FOMO. lol

Don't miss the boat, it might not stop here again, you'll regret it.

Tornadotony - you say "The key is to have some cash on a pull back and possibly to a modest extent play the chart technicals."

Obviously no need for anyone to buy when a change is 7 months away with the Azerbaijan Government an obstacle and 3 years production plans are necessary. So why are you keeping cash in reserve?

You wouldn't be trying to dissuade potential buyer and encouraging holders to sell down to fulfil your own aspirations to buy back now would you?

You're clearly simply trading in and out of shares.

This is such an annoying share, I can't help but conclude that the MMs are Carefully Managing the SP to suit their purposes - after buying a few this morning at 75p (after numerous attempts.

I then find myself unable to buy again when the indicative price quoted was 75p, it moves to 76p, still no quote and now 77p and I get a quote for 76.8p.

The same happened last week - IMO the MM's are dabbling in the shares rather than acting as honest broker. The SP is a con, I suspect it should be much higher and PI's will only be able to buy when it is. In the meantime a constant gloom is maintained.

Last week some talked to creating a short squeeze - well there is your problem, if the MM's won't let you trade when it goes against them (if they are partaking short selling or trading) it is impossible to win - they simply shut up the shop.