Member Info for jointhedots

TBTT - So you're basically trolling the BB with negative sentiment so that you can pick up a bargain, thanks for sharing your agenda, amazing no one guessed.

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the_shareminator - are you pulling rank? lol

I'm sure there are loads of posters with valuable experience and can work things out better than me, perhaps you should offer your services to the BoD. but irrespective, your assertion that things are being ignored is not true, the RNS's do not cite resource modelling as the cause, it is potentially part of the picture.

It's essentially down to poor management mate which ever way you cut it, I don't blame you for not wanting to waste time defending Mr Betts.

Lets just agree to disagree as I know I'm right and you are wrong, lol

Bushy, excellent - that's the spirit we need

Looks like Conroy were doing the dirty on us, I was right he is a difficult man to deal with, negotiating with another party whilst under negotiation with AAZ. They signed an agreement with another outfit from Turkey today "Demir Export A.S" - good luck with that one.

Turkey are hardy the beacon of worked rights, environment and safety, interesting development though as Turkey are all over the restoration of the captured Azeri territories - I wonder if that company will pop up in Azerbaijan, they are apparently owned by a big parent company.

I'm not surprised, when I took a look at Mr Conroy's history I thought he would be very difficult to deal with - there is no way they could have let him rum operations and I doubt anyone else will. The prospect looked great, but not if we get the wrong terms.

His own shareholders are allegedly running out of patience with him, this was a massive deal for Conroy.

For us, plenty of other fish to fry.

Haven't we got some free shares in the company now?

Onward and upward now.

Bushy - well said, I don't know what it means, forgive me, but it sounds powerful.

the_shareminator:
Your comment - "If I am wrong on this I would like to see evidence rather than accusations thrown around about the lack of management quality. It's very easy for people to criticise results and spin the blame game without fully understanding the situation, not that I am suggesting you have. But I haven't seen enough evidence to confirm lower grades are directly down to mismanagement."

The evidence is available, you just need the recognise it, my interpretation of the RNS's was verified in the Betts interview and even more so in the interview with the new guy yesterday - contrary to what you may think I'm trying to be tactful here and not completely rubbish the company in spelling out the problem. I stand by all I've said, and I believe you are wrong in some aspects of your understanding, resource modelling is not the underlying problem. If you are looking for a direct statement of what went wrong, you'll be waiting for ever.

IMO Poor management control led to poor planning and scheduling and/or operational failings - they've stated it themselves- what more do you need? Of course the same loose management controls may have also led to some poor resource mapping as Juxt suggests.

Which ever way you cut it, management has been lapse.

Tiger - That's no problem, all those that want out need to go or they'll only be a drag on the way back up, and it will eventually retrace.

Bigsmoke - we've all had our share of plugging away with lost causes, like moths to a flame, hopefully this is not also a lost cause, it's far too early to tell. Anyway, here we are again, looking for a pot of gold this time instead of a gusher.

Bushy - one thing you never know is what the optimum possible performance was and companies rarely get close to it, so we trust management to tell us what they expect to achieve as so-called experts in the field and buy on that basis. They have failed against their own targets and it's not a case of working through a planned lower grade area, it's a surprise. Betts the lower grade suggested it was a surprise last quarter - what do you think all the drilling is for - to ensure no surprises (de-risk). They have failed, I expect them perform on par or even outperform, never underperform. This company was not sold to investors as a laggard.

No one expects anything other from any company they invest in, don't be satisfied with crumbs. the BoD are paid handsomely.

Yes, it's quite annoying that the US leveraged players effectively control the gold price when it is developing countries like India where the actual physical demand lies.

The weakened $US increases that demand but perhaps until we get out of lockdown, restrictions around the world are eased and into a sense of optimism, physical demand will not surge. Any surge in physical demand is not factored in anywhere as far as I can see.

The US has no affinity for gold, public or institutions, with the authorities keen to ensure it never becomes mainstream due to historical reasons to support the now not quite so mighty US$.

As long as it doesn't collapse we'll be fine , AAZ will make excellent money provided they manage operations properly - many other outfits will go bankrupt long before AAZ reach a pinch point and rebalance supply and demand.

CHR- anything under 30p is a bargain irrespective of the current disappointment, the gold trend is stable or indeterminate, the woes here are of the company's own making.

The CEO (responsible surely, the buck stops with him) really screwed up here, I can't believe they tried to con/bluff, IMO, shareholders by saying in the RNS they were pleased to announce and then listing failures!

To clarify what went wrong - They've simply run out of better grade gold ore until later this year - that is either bad planning, scheduling and/or operational delivery - whichever way you cut it it's unforgivable IMO. I hope if the action group get an interview, you realise what is at the root of happened here - they haven't got new work areas ready on time (it's obvious from the RNS's), find out WHY. Now they are scrambling about for the time being working lower grades - and how come they have no decent stockpile material??? Perhaps because they have been covering poor performance for some time

Mr Betts needs to go and someone with gold mining expertise brought in, nothing less will allow for the required changes because that requires an acceptance that they screwed up and the knowledge to do something about it - no sign of that acceptance or knowledge in recent interviews - does he really not know how incompetent they have been? I think so, hence the site visit RNS, which I believe was intended to show the office based staff are actually on the ball - the message was relax dear shareholders we've got it all under control now before issuing the true nature of the problem in the later update.

Having said that the SP is getting ridiculous and will retrace soon IMO, but the company have left shareholders with no bullish reasons to trade in the short term, though even these incompetents will find it hard not to make money at $1800/oz.

Rid ourselves of the incumbent leadership and IMO the company will be a real winner.

Whilst we're discussing Tunnelling U/g activity - There are reports on the web of Zod being worked by surface and UNDERGROUND methods.

I'm not convinced, but if true then it raises a few important questions. Where are the access roads/tunnels, if on the Azeri side then the current operator can't even access any workings, conversely if they are on the Armenian side - do the Azeri's know where they have worked, are working and are they still taking gold from areas they shouldn't (wrong side of the border)?

That and eventually when the gain control raises questions of safety, particularly where the companies work and if they cooperate - e.g. one side could allow (or actively pump) water towards the other or fire a round of explosives without warning the other operators staff to take cover.

So much we don't know.

I still think and hope the companies will cooperate through necessity, because it's in everybody's interests, ideally for AAZ if GeoPro allow processing at their plant - even the Armenians would get transit fees and jobs. With cooperation AAZ could be up and running very quickly and at relatively little cost.

GeoProMining are a Russian outfit so will have no reluctance to cooperate for their own interests - but I suspect will be careful not to upset the Armenian side by looking too keen.

https://izi.travel/en/0675-the-sotk-zod-gold-deposit/en

Gold is bobbling about in the $1800/oz -an excellent level for AAZ to make lots of profit at their low AISC.

Yet by many it is seen as a problem for gold miners and gold metal - it really is a matter of finding a new stick to beat the market with every time one gets broken.

Recently we have have Bitcoin surging (why on Earth that matter to any extent escapes me) but has since lost around 25%, yet the bulls say this is healthy. normal etc - imagine if gold dropped to $1350/oz in a couple of weeks, they'd be calling it the end of the line. Then just they other day I read about gold under pressure about the FED chairman's impending speech to the senate, yet another non event as Powell reiterated the current easy monetary policy and weak inflation are here for longer. That ties in with the other fearmongering gem, that real interest rates are set to rise - there is no evidence of that, on the contrary, and Biden with EX-FED chair as his financial chief have indicated a loose financial policy (printing money) is a priority. To top it off apparently hedge funds are reducing long positions - big real, they always are extending or reducing as they thrive on volatility.

It doesn't matter when you look there are always a bunch of reasons to avoid gold like the plague - yet it has held it's price against all downward pressures and is within about 15% of it's all time high.

So where's the problem?? Every day that goes by AZZ will be banking more money and quietly progressing their projects and as far as I'm aware there are no known problems to worry about.

Not to worry, all our attempts at understanding the resource help enlighten the situation.

IMO all mining companies skirt around the true interpretation of the data and providing the data needed for investors to fully asses the real world opportunity .

V25 has the potential to be a fantastic producer, but we get as much information here as any other listed small mining company provides and based on that I believe TSG will make very substantial profits.

All assuming the Russian authorities don't impose severe penalties/ working restrictions associated with the recent fatalities - that's the real threat at the moment.

david - a very nice thought but perhaps a td optimistic, if your right I'll mortgage my house to load up with shares - I'm not sure there is a mine in the world of any scale getting that grade overall.

Sure the grades are excellent and if we average 10g/tonne they will be throwing money off an world class- remember how a underground mine works, access workings need to allow miners and equipment to get through so they have to take material of various grades, not just the high grades. Companies always just highlight the high grades sections, but also important are characteristics the depth, thickness, gradient, consistency (do they have to go through barren or low grade areas)

I posted about grades in December, here's an extract:

"The gold grades reported from our recent exploration are exceptional and potentially world class. if the grades prove persistent and the company can keep the production clean from debris from associated mining then we could become a top ten underground producer if the milled material produced > 10g/tonne

The linked article lists the top ten producers of 2020 in Q1, clearly the ones at the top of the list are truly exceptional (42g/tonne for the best simply look like they've got a licence to print money) but generally it looks like 10 to 15g/tonne covers most of the top 10 are indeed world class.

Notice not one mine is in Russia

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-11-27/Highest-grade-underground-gold-mines-in-Q1-2020.html
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I think they are in trouble, but companies never admit it and go to the bond holders until all options are exhausted. Bondholders have destroyed so many companies ( allegedly the Bondholders were shorting POG. Russian outfit not Gold price, in the knowledge the company where powerless to fight back as they negotiated a deal).

It should also be noted that Vallex who where operator of the other restored sites went Bankrupt though the Bondholder calling time for a huge debt, I recall it was Russian bank VTB who are the body now claiming ownership. Russian authorities a more likely to fight that one than ZOD, as VTB are effectively the Russian government . Part of the reason Vallex got in trouble was because of environmental fear due to alleged pollution led to them being picketed out.

The coming months could get very interesting for AAZ shareholders- I don't know of any other Gold miner with potential to gain such valuable asset for so little. If they get them it will be truly transformation.

The linked article, reinforces the case that investment will flow into the region, it shows Turkey is read to support reconstruction (Iran have registered an interest and other nations including Russia who are pushing the railway links to open their trade will be willing to invest).

Extract:
"Noting the importance of mutual investments, Pekcan said Turkey made investments worth $12 billion in Azerbaijan. Moreover, Azerbaijani investments in Turkey reached $19.5 billion.

Pekcan said remarkable financing opportunities for two companies, which were founded by Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR, were provided through Turkey's Eximbank.

She stated that with the victory of Azerbaijan in Upper Karabakh, a new window of opportunity has opened in Nakhchivan, an autonomous region.

"This corridor is very important for us. Our aim is to make Baku a logistics center - both for the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and on this route. Whatever it takes to make it a preferred route after Turkmenistan's borders open."

Azerbaijan's victory was the beginning of a brand new era in which the commercial and logistics structure of our region will change, she stressed.

Turkish contracting and consultancy companies are ready to cooperate and share their experiences with Azerbaijani business people for the reconstruction of Upper Karabakh, she said.

"It is not only the duty of Azerbaijan but for all of us to raise the living standards of the people of the region.""

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-azerbaijan-aim-15-bln-trade-volume-by-2023-162521

The linked article from a few years ago described the damage that the Armenian's have done to the occupied territories - assuming it is true (and it is backed up by loads of evidence including emerging videos of the destruction left behind) they truly are guilty of not caring for the region or the people, even the people who moved in after chasing the Azerbaijani's out have been short changed.

It is important because it highlights the severe feeling of injustice of the Azeri's, and sadly many people on both sides have died and suffered as a result of Armenian desires to take territory from another country (internationally recognised). That said they will also be bitter about the raping of the territory (read the article about foreign companies and the destruction of forests) very sad that it appears opportunist businessmen and Armenian officials have allegedly lined their pockets.

The reason I am labouring this is twofold. First because it appears to me that the Azeri's are not only likely to have no sympathy with business's that try to retain what they see as stolen and abused assets. The owners of ZoD have apparently indicated that they expect to retain the mine - not a chance, they will retain whatever is over the border in Armenia that's all. Goepro mining (ZOD) have said they will be able to maintain production for years with just the Armenian side of the mine - again there is probably no chance but they dare not tell the bondholders. The same reasoning goes for the other mining assets no sympathy for the companies that have invested, I think the Azeri's are more likely to demand compensation than allow them any leeway.

Second a point is that any necessary investment in any ventures AAZ take up is likely to be very easy to raise. British minister has already met with the Azeri's and discussed mining cooperation and many other countries have shown interest in investing. The article shows that many companies (in another article I read a major British bank invested) invested in businesses when the territory was disputed and run by an alleged corrupt Political elite. Now the territory is returned to legitimate control it will not be lost on investors.

"I have no sympathy for losses of current operators". However, respect for the suffering of the innocent citizen's is critical if AAZ ultimately gain assets, whatever other companies did/do AAZ must remain morally impeccable and look after them and bring better times - that is important to me WRT any investment I make and I think "ethical investment" is important to the majority of investors.

https://irs-az.com/new/files/2019/247/2954.pdf

https://irs-az.com/new/files/2019/247/2954.pdf