Member Info for jointhedots

All gold miners are exposed to the price of gold so I don't see how moving to Shanta helps (this is a better company even if it is not perceived as being cheap). There is no suggestion that gold will fall to anywhere near the level which will invalidate the business case for AAZ. If it slumps it more likely creates opportunities for companies with strong balance sheets and low operating cost like AAZ.

The main weakness for AAZ has been having just one mining complex and the need to find replacement ounces - the recent and ongoing exploration activity has changed the latter whilst the restored licences when they materialise will be truly transformational delivering both developed mining operations and massive exploration potential.

If you are a long (ish, more than a few months) term holder the gold price is not a worry IMO, it's more likely providing an opportunity as the chickens come home to roost in the realisation that there are consequences to governments building huge debt. I'm far from convinced it will fall significantly if at all over the year.

Another article on a meeting today of Azeris government agencies and proxies with potential investors, Azergold are the recently founded government vehicle for development of mining opportunities ; they have met with the mining subsidiary of a Turkish conglomerate (energy, construction and mining interests) Eti Bakir to discuss mining opportunities

Looks like other companies will be interested in throwing their hat in the ring on any new licence areas offered, competition maybe, but I'm unsure if AZZ would be interested in any more slapping on their plate, especially to develop from scratch with years before payback - I suppose they are simple useful to add to the portfolio.

The Azeri's may well define new opportunities to bid for when the dust of the conflict settles or even in the settled parts of Azerbaijan. AZZ will be well aware of what is worth having.

It looks like Azergold (the only other major player on AZZ's patch is interested in partners to possibly develop 6 gold deposits they have plans for and I judging by their discussion may be too much for them alone - AAZ would presumably be invited to bid having a great relationship already.

Looks like there are going to be an abundance of opportunities in all sectors in the coming years and more than enough for AAZ in their sector as well as the great relationship of team has at senior levels in Azerbaijan and the longstanding knowledge of operating in the country.

Article extract:

"Azerbaijan’s gold mining company AzerGold CJSC and Turkey’s Eti Bakir company have discussed cooperation in the mining sector between the two countries, AzerGold CJSC has reported.

Eti Bakir is subsidiary of Turkey’s energy company Cengiz Holding that holds a leading position in the copper and metallurgical industry of Turkey and the region.

During the meeting held on March 12, AzerGold’s Chairman Zakir Ibrahimov noted that Azerbaijan’s liberated Karabakh region has great economic potential as well as resources that open up great opportunities for bilateral cooperation in the mining sector. He noted that AzerGold, as a state company is always ready to cooperate with Turkey in this sphere.

He further said that AzerGold plans to commission six more gold deposits, including the sulfide phase of the Chovdar gold deposit, as well as one polymetallic and four copper ores in 2021-2027.

Eti Bakir’s Chairman Sheref Chengiz, reminded the agreement signed between the Azerbaijani government and Eti Bakir back in February 2021 in Ankara as part of the Turkish-Azerbaijani business forum. He stressed that the agreement will make an important contribution to the partnership in the mining sector."

https://www.azernews.az/business/177045.html

I have previously commented on the countries lining up to help (themselves) as part of the imminent reconstruction and development to the regained Azeri territory - Now the US seen to have have a first move, and with them comes the big money and rapid progress.

IMO it looks great for AAZ, everyone wants to share in the opportunities provided by new transport corridors and surely it must help even with the existing mines WRT getting materials in and out and even staff to sites.

One of the proposed transport/railway corridors will make some of the sites much more accessible, things are progressing even if AAZ can do nothing.

"The US is interested in cooperating with Azerbaijan Railways and attracting new companies in railway infrastructure, U.S. Deputy Ambassador Michael Dickerson said during the meeting with Azerbaijan’s Railways Chairman Javid Gurbanov on March 10.

During the meeting, Azerbaijan’s Railways Chairman briefed the participants on the importance of infrastructure projects, reforms and international transport corridors implemented by the Railways.

Gurbanov emphasized that the active participation in important projects such as the East-West, North-South and North-West transport corridors, makes Azerbaijan one of the reliable transport and logistics centers of Eurasia.

It was noted that the North-South corridor, aimed at reducing the time of goods delivery from India to Russia, Northern and Western Europe, requires extensive use of Azerbaijan’s favourable transit opportunities."

https://www.azernews.az/business/177006.html

RightOn - good article that link up what I have understood from putting together various viewpoints.

Of course, as a shareholder I don't care in the slightest about the politics accept in so far as it impacts AAZ - and what appears clear is that AAZ shareholders need not worry about Armenia retaking territory, it simply isn't credible.

Following the logic through, AAZ's chances of getting control of the mines looks excellent - the timescale is a different story.

Further on my last post yesterday, I said of Geopromining and Zod they : "are currently laying off hundreds of local miners who reportedly plan to blockage the railway in Armenia- not a sign they expect to regain the mine!). "

There's more on this today in the Armenian press, apparently another mine, actually in Armenia, Amulsar (nothing to do with AAZ) is going to get the go-ahead to operate soon and Goepro are quoted as saying that miners being laid off at Zod will get jobs at the mine.

https://news.am/eng/news/632879.html
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=hy&u=https://armlur.am/press_reviews/joxovurd/&prev=search&pto=aue

Bears out what I said that Geopro don't expect to get the Azeri side of Zod back and their assertion that they can operate at previous capacity appears a little optimistic.

Righton - agree with everything you say, the Russians say they will not interfere, but they will look after their own national interest.

The Russian have a balancing problem , in that they want to remain friends with all parties and will only side with Armenia (under treaty) if the Azeri's invade Armenia proper and I believe the Azeri's will never be so stupid.

The consequences even for Russia in taking any action against the Azeri's are huge as they have more important relationships that could be jeopardised elsewhere, Turkey, Israel and numerous regional players are aligned with the Azeris The cost to Russia would be too high, especially as the all parties (except some Armenians) desperately want commercial and transport links through the region.

There has been a steady stream of countries meeting and expressing a desire to help the Azeri's to rebuild the territories, including the UK, Germany, Ukraine, Russia, Italy, Iran and loads of minor players. Peace is now in everyone's interest.

As far as Geopro's links to Putin, for Zod it will not cut it, the Azeris are to bitter to give their mine to a firm with an alleged atrocious record and have paid no royalties and are seen as plundering crooks (Environmental damage left and are currently laying off hundreds of local miners who reportedly plan to blockage the railway in Armenia- not a sign they expect to regain the mine!). Perhaps equally important our boss has very close links with the Azeri authorities ( and Azeri's control the territory not the Russians).

Don't worry about the mines - the more I've read the clear it is the Azeri's despise all the companies that have, as they see it, plundered their territory.

If you have doubts read the attached article from Armenian perspective before the war, it includes many mines including a section on Zod and damning comments from an ex mine manager/geologist and other locals

https://hetq.am/en/article/104582

I don't know is everyone is aware, I assumed so, apparently the Armenians are going through a bit of a constitutional crisis - it is unfolding rapidly and may be temporarily weighing on the share price IMO.

For anyone that is not aware, this is the background:
The PM blamed the Armenian army for the loss of the war, thousands of soldiers were being investigated for deserting their posts. It appears in response the Chief of Staff of the armed forces and generals called for the resignation of the PM, citing under resourcing and poor political leadership blamed on the government. Previous presidents and political opposition joined in and called for PM to be deposed for signing a poor settlement deal (they appear delusional, somehow seem to feel they could have turned the tide of the war, but as we all know populism (Trump, Johnson) is a winning formula).

From there, the PM called for the military leaders to be sacked and there are calls from some for a coup. Now it looks like the PM will call am election - probably through fear of a coup. Meanwhile, the Russians have said they will not intervene.

So here we are with what looks like a group of nationalist politicians likely to gain control on the basis of being tough and possibly reigniting the dream of retaking the lost territory. That backdrop is not helpful for investment, even though there is not a snowball in hells chance of them regaining the territory - if they do kick off they will lose the Russian support and lose more territory IMO as they do not have the financial clout.

This backdrop is not helpful to AAZ and may be preventing some entities from committing to buy shares until the dust settles - I've been surprised that no institutional investors appear have not moved to take positions. Approval for AAZ to start visiting to make assessment on the restored sites will help greatly IMO.

https://news.am/eng/news/632688.html

As other posters have stated already any of us can to now is take our stance, whatever we do will have no bearing on the outcome for AAZ. I can think of a lot worse places to stick £1500.

Gold, the metal is where the action is until AAZ release more news, an army of opportunists are slugging it out for victory on the gold price, no matter what the news in the market it seems there are entities portraying it as bad news for gold. It is a little ridiculous the US can commit to printing cash like there is no tomorrow and gold flat-lines - the consequences are good for gold as the process advances. The US$ sinks and gold does not respond, oil and gold traditionally moved together in the opposite direction to the US$ yet here we are with gold seemingly uncoupled. Interest rates are still at or below zero, but at the same time the perception that there will be no inflation and companies are about to put in a powerful grow spurt appears to defy logic.

Gold appears to be well out of favour - but isn't that traditionally a good time to buy?

That's a surprise somehow all the spaces where taken out of my last post.

Gold is under pressure and may remain so for a while or even break to the upside - many of us are nursing losses but there is no point dwelling on it whist we wait for the next company development. There is no problem here and we are simply following the sector - it will changeIn the meantime I'm trying to understand what the company's true potential is, Zod is a large gold mine and provides great potential, but apparently it was not the biggest mine in Armenia, that is Kajaran who have huge reserves, 6% of world molybdenum which sells for 3 times the price of Copper, they are also profitable . The reason I took a look at them was more than academic, the mine appear to be relatively close to our Ordubad licence area, so I took a look to see if they had found any molybdenum there or on the same trend - as far as I can see none is reported, Copper/Gold/Silver so far and no correlation, but the area still needs lots of exploration. It looks to me like the takeaway is that these contract areas have the potential for some very large ore bodies if regional mines are anything to go by - can't say I've ever heard of a potential mine life of 120 years for a metals mine (see quote below). It will be interesting to read the Natural History Museum's view after they publish their study finding, we have no idea of the potential scale and may not for a few years"The largest mine in the country, the Kajaran copper and molybdenum mine, claims reserves of 2.24 billion tonnes of ore?—?6 percent of global molybdenum reserves. Kajaran also accounts for 60% of mining turnover in the country. Given its confirmed reserves and the current rate of mining (18 million tonnes per year), the mine could be operational for another 100–120 years."https://ampop.am/en/mining-transparency-in-armenia/

The share buyback programme will not support the SP in the short term and it and all other variants are explicitly designed to avoid it.

Hence, putting it in the hands of an agent to avoid any suggestion of it - there are very good reasons for it not least is that it doesn't help shareholders evenly, tempts dishonest behaviour and potentially provides a reasonable case for someone who pays a higher price an opportunity to claim compensation etc.

Have said that, soaking up unwanted shares over a period to increase NAV of remaining shares will help medium/long term and IMO is a great way to utilise cash when a SP is low - so I hope they continue after the initial tranche of allocated funds is used.

The entire sector is being punished for the PERCEIVED outlook rather than what has happened, AAZ are simply following the trend.

Yet AAZ are not your typical AIM gold miner, with lots of promises of better things to come disguising poor performance - they are actually a very efficient established outfit making a profit.

There are no full year figures for AISC yet to judge financial performance ut from the half year results they said:

"The AISC per ounce of gold produced increased in H1 2020 to $743 per ounce. The major costs of the Company's production such as staff and operating its plant are fixed and AISC has therefore increased due to the lower production. Anglo Asian remains a lowest quartile cost producer and the AISC is expected to reduce materially in H2 2020 as production increases."

So the current gold price provides pushing $1000/oz income after costs without any increase in efficiency or production - the company projects lower AISC as production increases - IMO the current SP does not reflect the reality of how profitable AAZ is even if gold drops another couple of hundred $/oz.

For the time being all we can do is hang on to the old chestnut that frustrates so many "Patience" - will see shareholders through IMO.

UK chancellor playing santa again, his print now pay later scheme (preferably when it can be blamed on someone else). lol

More importantly the long awaited US stimulus is supposedly being heard by the Senate today, if passed than all the chips will steadily fall into place IMO.

Maybe slowly rising interest rates, but not rising real rates as inflation if it occurs will outpace it. IMO the bark will be proven to be worse than the bite when everything is laid out.

Now I've been allowed to buy (3566 at just under £1.40) - I suppose they managed to get some mug to sell some first.

Shareholder should not that the spread is only a couple of pence, very often the touch price is nothing like the real trading price. Anything around the current price is a great opportunity IMO, if it goes a little lower so what.

Unbelievable, just retested and they've marked the bid price down, only 0.1p but that's not the point, considering I still can't buy even 500 shares even with the big spread.

How can it be anything other than rigged to create a feeling that the SP is on a downward trend and help it on it's way??

Yet again, the SP is artificially controlled to line some crooks pockets.

This morning on the buy side (previously it was on sell side) - I could just get a quote to sell shares but not to buy - so WHY is the SP down?? I can only think of 1 reason, to rig the market for the benefit of someone and at the expense of genuine traders. The company really need to look at this issue WRT their MMs. It's ridiculous for the market to operate only half open day after day, only to be opened up when some entity has been accommodated. No doubt trades will be possible soon.

-$2m

Quite concerning that they can make such a mistake.

adamsm.. - I think you are right, Conroy is something of little consequence, our existing assets are more than enough for now- I noticed the guys on the Conroy BB drooling over the prospect of the Turkish outfit pouring money in. I think they are in for a disappointment, as we knew when we were the potential partner production is years away and the Turkish are not renowned for being mugs, they'll take their own sweet time if it's to their advantage.

I also took a look at their operations and although they are a huge outfit with lots of mining they only appear to own one small scale full production gold mine and a second to start, they are producing a lot less gold the AAZ. So they are not more experienced in the specific area and will likely throw no more resources at it than AAZ would have - I actually looked because I thought they might be a potential predator or partner for AAZ, but I don't think so now.

GeoPro are still running the mine on a limited basis on the Armenian side of the border according to Ruzanna Grigoryan (their PR rep! - see link) last week .

""The Sotk Mine continues to operate and fulfil the production plan. Extraction is carried out in the territory of Armenia," she added."

I've also been looking for evidence of where the remaining gold resources lie when the inevitable 70/30 split of the mine in favour of the Azeri's occurs. There is no information on this and it will almost certainly be confined to GeoPro's mining records (company confidential). However, having read quite a lot on GeoPro now it is clear they have not been the most exemplary of operators and have allegedly caused great environmental damage and had poor safety standards - reportedly dug pits under to mine to dispose of contaminated water which has seeped into the Sotk river and contaminated land and water supplies, at the same time dodged providing community support - a pretty shabby outfit be some accounts. Bearing that in mind, GeoPro have claimed they can go on for years with just the Gold from Armenian side of the border, but can they be believed? A greedy outfit would mine the easy Gold first, nearest to rail terminal and process plant. So where have they taken the bulk of they gold from? There is no logical reason to believe is is proportionate across the mine.

The second linked article, from mid-December perhaps provides an insight, it includes a viewpoint of a mine employee that:

"Although the administrative building at the mine is in Armenian territory, the gold resources are under Azerbaijani control. There hasn’t been any work at the mine for several weeks (out of the 950 employees, 100 will remain and only for two years, after which all the resources of the Armenian party will be consumed.”"

If true they are in deep dodo. So although GeoPro seem to be trying hard to put a brave face on it, they have lost the bulk of the resources, they are never going to officially acknowledge it or their Bondholders will tear them apart.

https://news.am/eng/news/630546.html
https://news.am/eng/news/618505.html

trading on AIM is, for days I've been testing buys and sells, after I read comments on the ADVFN BB, and have been unable to get a reliable sell price for more than a few hundred, Then miraculously today as they drop the price to 145p and it's possible to sell. What a shabby set-up this market is.

The MMs really are milking PI's. They have the luxury of more information with freedom to hide it and simply refusing to trade if it doesn't suit them - I suspect they have been getting rid of their stock before dropping the price or accommodating some favoured entity. I'm not a seller but unless the parameter are tested it's impossible to tell what a fair price is or how things are trending.