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Volatility in the gold price has crushed enthusiasm for all the gold sector, irrespective of the fact that gold has just recovered to back over $1700/oz (highly profitable zone for AAZ and many others) and the optimism about a massive recovery is only sustained by a belief that governments will continue printing money and inflation will not be the outcome - a logic defying belief IMO. So-called expert commentators predict everything from capitulation to a soaring price, but I would be happy if it would just stay where it is, at a level where good companies like AAZ are making excellent profits.

Anyway, rant over, there's nothing we can do accept put up with an illogical market, nothing new there.

More interestingly, I read a piece on Kitco about high physical demand in India, apparently it soared 471% to a record 160 tonnes in March as the government relaxed import duty rates, add to that a large volume of gold imported illegally.

Bearing in mind annual production is estimated around 3200 tonnes/yr, it's over 5% in one month, if repeated for the whole year they would buy the entire world production; obviously it won't but there is no doubt they will take a huge chunk . Add to that new commitments from governments to increase their gold reserves (all be it relatively modest so far) and there now appear to be the potential for real gold demand to help push up prices particularly as the US$ loses it's strength with continued money printing. Physical demand has been all but non existent during the pandemic, it doesn't help if the shops are shut lol, but the consensus it that many people have been squirreling money away around the world, including the UK, and that money will soon start chasing physical assets, I hope gold is included on people wish list. Time will tell if the is a surge in demand, but if the promising news on India demand turns out to be persistent and replicated elsewhere we could be talking more about it after a long pause

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-05/India-s-March-gold-imports-surge-471-to-a-record-160-T-government-source.html

I must confess I've been surprised there has been no update on expectations for the year ahead, I expected something in March.

April fools day is best avoided for news I guess, but hopefully we'll hear something next week.

N ot expecting anything on the newly restored licences though, even if things are progressing - they took quite a lot of stick from the Armenia side for what they suggested was profiteering from the conflict including a petition and call for investors to boycott the company. AAZ will not want to be in the firing line of any anger how ever unjustified

A bit blinkered in their viewpoint but emotions will be understandably raw, the irony is the companies that have operated the mines have allegedly stolen the resources and been awful to the environment and done little for local population.

WRT ZoD (according to a recent statement from an Armenian minister) Russian and Armenian officials are apparently exploring options to continue mining and save the remaining jobs, but there seems to be an acceptance that part of the mine is lost. I suspect access is an issue , because of the proximity of a key territorial road and perhaps at the mine - thinking about what is presumably a massive hole the position of the access roads is significant as the route to the gold reserves must be a steady incline. I'm just guessing but mining could be disrupted even in the remaining Armenian sector as transit routes are broken. Clearly GeoPro Mining are not going to publicise and difficulties.

I'm eager for news, but will just have to wait, it could be a long while before all is clear.

No sooner had I posted than I noticed the image on another article - so it's a stock photograph, so we still have no clue if the access tunnels are on the Azeri side. I suppose I'll just have to be patient.

Having satisfied myself that AAZ will be getting a worthwhile asset in ZoD earlier today (as per last post), I came across another snippet of information that may resolve another conundrum

We already know ZoD has both Surface and Underground workings but I was really interested to know if the Underground working are on Azeri side of the border and if the access tunnel where there - IMO that will make a huge difference to start up costs and the speed of restoration of production. Underground operation tend to be to access higher grade ore than bulk surface workings.

The linked article suggests an Azeri serviceman found a warehouse full of gold dust at the liberated mine. I can't believe GeoPro would leave a large quantity of processed gold and suspect it may be small samples or something else. If they found gold do AAZ get a share. A tad exaggerated perhaps. lol

More interesting, I noticed the photograph accompanying the article shows an underground roadway, if that is not a stock photograph (first time I've seen one), it could be great news for AAZ as it means the mine entry is on the Azeri side of the border - take a look at the photograph. Of course I could be barking up the wrong tree, but IMO the explanation is no less plausible than finding a warehouse full of gold just left lying about.

The article says:

"Azerbaijani servicemen found a warehouse full of gold dust in Kalbajar.
Axar.az reports that the warehouse is located in the Soyudlu gold deposit in the Kalbajar region.
One of our servicemen, who filmed the place, demonstrated gold dust illegally produced by Armenians."

https://en.axar.az/news/society/520300.html

I've trawled through loads of articles about Zod to find out what AAZ will in fact be gaining - a clapped out gold mine or a valuable (ready to generate cash) operation. I think the latter and the linked article when cross referenced with others and the company's positive view bears this out.

First the mine is reported to hold huge volumes of gold and decades of remaining life according to the operator GeoProMining and it is generally accepted that around three quarters of the mine lies in Azerbaijan - but is that the deposit or physical area - it makes a massive difference as geographical area means nothing if there is no gold present or the grades are low (ZoD is known for very high grades).

Bearing the above in mind I was pleased to read the linked article which IMO appears to answer the most significant questions - where are the high grade reserves and where is the bulk quantity?

It appears the operators have been working on the Azeri side of the mine to extract higher grades as they are lower on the Armenian side!!! Obviously they will have taken some but it means AAZ's portion of the mine will not only have the bulk of the reserves but critically the higher grades.

The article states that: "The head of the national geological service of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan, Ali Aliyev, told ASTNA exclusively that...

...This deposit has few impurities and high gold content. It's easy to operate. The part of this largest deposit in the Caucasus, where there is a low gold content, is located in Armenia. Knowing this, Armenian businessmen took advantage of the occupation of the Kalbajar region and worked intensively on the rich Azerbaijani site,".

"The head of the national geological service of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan, Ali Aliyev, told ASTNA exclusively that... ...This deposit has few impurities and high gold content. It's easy to operate. The part of this largest deposit in the Caucasus, where there is a low gold content, is located in Armenia. Knowing this, Armenian businessmen took advantage of the occupation of the Kalbajar region and worked intensively on the rich Azerbaijani site, in a large area, trying to extract as much ore as possible from our zone. The Armenians wanted to ditch our part of the deposit so that we would not get anything. But I am sure that after 27 years of occupation and barbaric development, the Soyudlu field is not empty. In the coming months we will begin monitoring this zone and assessing the damage,” Aliyev told ASTNA.

According to him, there are certain technological and other specific nuances of the prospects for the exploitation of this field in the Kelbajar region, which it is too early to talk about, but they are optimistic."

Great read, loads in it from a few months back.

https://www.turan.az/ext/news/2020/11/free/analytics/en/130362.htm/001

Though we are not getting any information on what is going on I'm sure things will become clearer and that progress will be being made, though probably nothing practical yet, AAZ should IMO not spend too much until the licence areas are actually accessible and appraised.

The Azeri's and Armenians are actually talking in spike of the harsh rhetoric provided for public consumption the Russian and Turkish vested interest in restoring trade links will be too strong. The linked article reports that a meetings are taking place to discuss Transport and Communication links - excellent for AAZ as the improved access to their sites should ease development.

"YEREVAN. – Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by Russia, are discussing the unblocking of all communications that existed during the Soviet years. Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan stated this at Wednesday’s session of the National Assembly of Armenia, answering the MPs' questions.

In particular, he clarified that the roadmap for unblocking roads in the region, and which was published by the Russian newspaper Kommersant, is not so accurate, as the working group is discussing solely the restoring of communications from the Soviet era. "The agenda actually includes the restoration of the highways and railways that operated during the Soviet years," the deputy PM explained"

https://news.am/eng/news/635475.html

I think we are due an RNS any time before the end of March then a Q1 update in mid April.

Over the previous 3 years March has been a busy reporting time, there have been al least 2 updates each year and an operational update 26th March last year - this year they have been very quiet and we are still waiting for that and more on plans for the current year, I suspect it will be this Month.

The last formal operations update was Jan 14th and we have no clear guidance on 2021 operations, just exploration.

Presumably they are quietly banking revenues and putting together plans for the year to include potential efforts on restoring the additional mines, even if restored soon I suppose we are unlikely to see any contribution from them for a year or two so current operations generating good revenues will be critical to progressing any plan.

Now they've dropped Conroy, they can fully focus on the operations in Azerbaijan. I noticed Conroy raised capital yet again, I suspect it is going to be a long haul for the long suffering shareholders.

Finally, whilst it's quiet and talking Turkey, I was amused by an article on the web the other day about a shipment of Turkish copper, apparently (the seller says lol) thieves got to it and swapped it for painted rocks. Hope that Conroy have better luck with the their Turkish pals. On a similar vein, apparently some police official tried to steal a stack of Gold from the Zod mine 3 or 4 years ago, over 100kg found in cars - inside jobs maybe??, I suppose the moral of the story is AAZ are probably better off without partners unless they get a rock solid (not pained) one. Some might say Conroy were not trustworthy.

https://www.ft.com/content/49404260-898f-49f1-b24c-4d351f371b7e

bigsmoke - good observation.

Why is anyone getting anxious now, just sit back and wait, if you're happy with your position, if not do something about it.

IMO the action today is fine, many times I've been annoyed after there is heave buying before the news only for those same entities to sell on the news and supress the SP. A nice quiet day today is fine by me, nobody tipped off and taking the P*ss.

Yes, absolutely right - clarity of intent and expectations are the least they should provide.

We all know the market hates uncertainty, outcomes for shareholder is not supposed to be a lucky dip surprises, the business proposition needs delivering. I'm very optimistic the BoD will deliver a better outcome this year or I wouldn't be invested.

tommy15 - thanks for understanding, it wasn't a criticism of you, we are all just trying to help bottom out the wrangle that has been going on for far too long now - IMO we need to bank the experience and look to the future.

All the cloak and dagger stuff on the BB is a tad excessive, try to take a step back and see the bigger picture.

Tommy15 - I'll assume your figures are correct, but your logic to arrive at 57% of free float traded is just far too simplistic.
First assume half are buy and half sells so half the headline figure changed hands, then more importantly the same shares are churned over and over again sometimes even within a single day. Sorry mate, the numbers mean nothing.

That leads me to the big unknown and strikes fear into some when the SP halved in November and around 24m where traded. Many don't seem to have got over it, well I don't know what happened but I can suggest a few possibilities.

Some combination of
Entities sold and entities bought;
Entities didn't report trading that they should have;
MM's helped it on its way by dumping at top buying at bottom or more likely switching through the day ;
5) MM's or other entity sold shares they didn't have and bought them later (I believe over 16m were traded after the drop);
6) The same shares-traders churned shares over and over again as buyer and seller to achieve a final entry/exit point.
etc, etc....

Some of you appear to be obsessed with conspiracy theories, it's ridiculous, but for the benefit to some posters that might not be aware: each MM can hold up to 10% of shares in any company without disclosure - so nothing balances at times and they have ALL the information you have (in many cases can even forecast your intent) and a whole lot more including the stance of some big shareholders. Second there is NOTHING to compel foreign shareholders to disclose their position (no penalties) - it's no use grumping, that's the way is it.

On that day the BoD left the company vulnerable and the vultures and parasites took advantage - it will always be the case that opportunists will jump in if there is money to be had. IMO we should stop focusing on adversaries and look to the BoD to deliver an irresistibly positive outcome for 2021 as they (are) will be to blame if the company gets trashed.

I don't follow this BB very closely and have no fear of posting negatively what I believe to be the truth as I did yesterday.

I've been investing for decades and welcome debate rather than believing it impacts the SP as some do, which brings me to the early posts today from what appear to be resident doomsters.

Interesting start, not wrt the SP but stew200s post - "as the market expects the very worst at the moment and the shorts are obviously loaded up big time and will look to close some points given we know this company is it going to go into administration like some think."

It is unbelievable, (s)he is right, that someone with over 12000 posts believes that drivel, sorry stew200 but if you post silly stuff like that you will get challenged - there is no suggestion except from you the market expects the worst, shorts are loaded up big time, or as has already been pointed of the risk of administration.

Question is - what is your game??? You were incredibly quick off the mark this morning to set the negative agenda I've seen that so many times with derampers, just be straight with everyone. Your obvious experience makes a mockery of your naive fearmongering posts - you know better.

I bought additional shares yesterday and will buy more this morning if the SP actually does sink, but the SP has hardly moved and I'm eager to see the next update certainly not fearful, I'm sure we can all (including you) wait for the clarity of the results next week.

TU was a problem, to issue in Feb and not say how they where actually trading was awful, simply confirmed prior year - said nothing. The management need a kick up the a*se IMO to communicate what investors really need to know.

Many posters appear to be scratching your heads wondering what is wrong, probably nothing apart from the obvious performance disappointment after raising a bullish expectations. For me the worst thing they did was drop the price of the staff options after shareholders stumped up $50m at as I recall 5 times the price - what a drag on the SP and shows bad faith in rewarding failure IMO.

I own quite a lot of shares in this company and believe as long as the don't pull a stunt to destroy confidence or report a further deterioration in performance the SP will rise strongly on the results.

IMO, it's the lack of visibility of how they are performing that is a problem and they could have offset that in February, it is vital the result provide clear forward guidance or investors assume the worst.

Everyone can throw in their own investment choices and I usually baulk at the practice of trying to persuade investors to move on bad news, but in this case the news is fatal.

For a long time TSG was my favourite gold miner followed by HGM so I'm very saddened by the news, my reasons I suspect are obvious - the very high grades and consistent performance - not relying on the next big discovery to keep investors hooked - so IMO beware of any company tips where the SP is dependent solely on the drill bit. It's too risky for me.

Now both of those are essentially robbed from me, my choice is AAZ with good grades and solid production, I don't know if there are better out there but I've looked at dozens with an open mind and not found one but will be looking in the coming days.

I'm not normally a vindictive person but sometimes I make an exception so I thought you might like this - AAZ also potentially provides the added benefit that no other miner can of being able to take assets off Russian oligarchs as the recovery very substantial assets from the rich buggers is progressed, the mines where occupied illegally by those who have links to the highest levels in Russia and currently there appears to be sod all they can do to stop it. I think a nice story for today for those feeling angry and powerless; irrespective of the SP over the last few weeks it has been giving me great pleasure to see them lose out for a change, will give me greater pleasure when the mines as under AAZ company control.

Actually my advice (useless though it is as no one needs it) is to take your time and compare as many companies as you can and make your own decision , I've looked at so many BS suggestions over the years - look at and compare the performance figures and charts together, etc, etc and most importantly don't take any notice of anyone on this BB including me. lol.

I have invested in lots of companies over the years, including quite a few in Russia and in the last year alone two gold miners have been taken out by a Russian entity ( I believe proxies for others and ultimately the Russian government though It's impossible to prove). The latest this morning, is TSG offered around a 20% premium of recent trading.

The reason I post this is more than academic, it's because recently the Russians have become a factor for AAZ, they have been I believe the ultimate beneficial owners of the bulk of the restored mining areas and now the potential loser.

It is my opinion, based on my observations over some time that the Russian government are instigating the repatriation/control of Russian gold mining assets - we must not forget that Russian is always under threat of sanctions from the US which risks crushing the Rouble and they secure $US to repay loans and buy goods via commodity sales. Fr the Russians gold holds extra value.

As a consequence I suspect the Russians will be very reluctant to walk away from the rich assets in Azerbaijan without making a play to retain them. GEOPro mining allegedly have links to Putin's enforcer Igor Sechin (reputedly the second most powerful man in Russia and boss of Rosneft). So who ultimately owned those mines??? Not always the headline entity.

My point is that they may want to talk to AAZ and the Azeri's about a deal, though the Azeri's are likely to tell them to get stuffed and AAZ will certainly not announce it.

The other alternative is to make an offer for AAZ, and as they are not in Russia and we are not controlled by Russian entities the premium would have to be much higher.

All IMO, I have no evidence of anything, then again there never is until news breaks.

I suspected this and commented on it last July/August when Highland Gold Mining had the same thing happen - this is the same entity buying (though I suspect it is a proxy for the Russian state). The accident probably sealed this, perhaps with the company threatened with penalties if they didn't sell.

I recall someone ripping into me for saying I thought TSG at risk like HGM, some Russian sector investors are kidding themselves IMO this is the Russian state engineering the repatriation of Assets, at be it via oligarchs and other proxies. Everything is done or not with state approval.

A sceptical man might suggest POG, HGM and now TSG have all been manipulated - guys there is nothing you can do here except oppose and get angry/accept or sell, all the talking won't help as I think the authorities know what going on in these Russian take outs.

This is the fourth time this has happened to me (screwed over by Russians from a bigger pay out), I invest because of the great potential and have made money but crumbs compared to those that have forced me out.

I advise everyone to be aware for the future, Russian companies don't perform like others for very good reason.

Some might say the country is corrupt to the core, and I wouldn't argue with them - I won't go into details but I once had cause to advise the CEO of a company operating in Russia (not TSG but which was also forced to sell out) that their own lawyers where releasing information that undermined the business - I was thanked and the leak was stopped.

Just be aware for next time guys, even legal title to properties is insecure where, allegedly, officials allow documents to be altered in favour of some thieving entity, don't assume UK standards apply.

I posted this in August last year, laughable really:

"Feels a bit like HGM did over the last few weeks (manipulated to keep a lid on the price IMO) I'm in good profit here and in HGM but it is not giving me pleasure as I feel like I'm Oliver Twist - I want more and feel I'm being short changed."

I suspect you all feel short changed this morning

Initial response to news filtering out about growth and interests rates positive - gold up around !% from todays low approx $1745/oz and rising as I write.

Interest rates on bonds at current level will remain negative and the FED is not likely to raises rates to fight inflation.

All good IMO, the bears have done their worst and I am very relaxed with my investment here, expecting a strong showing from AAZ this year.

However individual prospects of companies are not in focus today I suspect, thoughts are directed to the FED chairman's, Jerome Powell, statement later today. Weighing on gold and many areas of the market today - traders will be hanging on every word and will react accordingly - often reassessing and switching view on the slightest suggestion (they haven't got a clue). Could set the gold trend for a while or do nothing, we'll see tomorrow, but as they as cream always rises to the top so no real worries.

I don't want to jinx it but the SP movement appears very damped down of late, far less erratic than after the euphoria of the regained licences was announced.

Hopefully it stays this way, the MMs moving the SP steadily with gold, perhaps we have a seller or buyer that is balancing one side of the trading equation for them.

Whatever, it's good for confidence for investors, less so for those trading in and out between newsflows.

Time rolls on, it's unfortunate that we get older and impatient but from a corporate perspective for a company like AAZ it means they are building their financial strength and hopefully improving the business. We are already nearing the end of Q1 with the average gold price very conducive to great profits. For all the talk of a crumbling gold price, the CEO of Barrick has recently commented he thinks the gold price is going to rise strongly and the short term volatility is not significant

Cp - diversification is good practice, I have a number of gold mining stocks this was my third favourite a year ago but has moved up to number 1 as a result of the progress over the last year and I've been accumulating steadily.

We should not ever forget as shareholders that spikes Up or Down will have little impact of revenue and profits, it's the average that matters - irrespective of the SP pressure, Q1 has been great.