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Not much downside then!

I've been digging a little into background information the last couple of weeks and I'm more enthusiastic and definitely more relaxed about my investment now..

Ignore the disappointing SP if you can, unless you are a seller of fearful about the company's prospects there is nothing to worry about.

I regularly re-read RNSs and article after forming an initial judgement as very often one's first impression does not fully grasp every aspect, anyway that's what I've been doing here for the last week or so and posting my opinion on the significance of some things that grabbed my attention.

I just looked at the last presentation that the company published from the end of July 2020 which is exclusively about the addition of Cloud Telephony to the Loopup platform - it makes clear the differential benefits of their offering, the demand growth likely in the sector and that they held events with companies to gauge their requirement whilst developing this and other potential services - all good IMO.

But most interestingly for me was the last Q&A questions about the potential revenue increase possible if existing customer switched to add cloud telephony Steve was cagey but suggested a factor of 2 to 3 - that alone provides massive potential for growth from existing customers (some of whom will obviously have newly defined needs) before they even consider new customers.

He also said there was loads of interest in service, even then with C19 rampant, but that companies were effectively in crisis mode and did not dare risk implementations as I pointed out earlier - maybe helps explain the sales disappointment as the year progressed and early promise never materialised. Now companies are coming out of their C19 hibernation perhaps sales will gather momentum through the year - if they didn't go for another solution (simply didn't implement) then the identified business is up for grabs.

None of this is visible to the market YET, and if it turns out to be the case then the low current SP simply represents better springboard to buy at - as they say the market is newer wrong, but in the case of Loopup that's because the market has little information to deduce how sales this and next year will pan out - investor relations are an area that needs much greater attention IMO.

According to our CEO (last presentation) although commercial customers have shown great interest in Loop services, the C19 impact and subsequent pressures, financial and he particularly cited the risk of implementing a mission critical change in the middle of uncertainty in 2020 had led to companies delaying implementations.

Those potential clients (or many of them)have not gone away/gone elsewhere - their needs to implement has simply become more urgent. That might explain the huge grow in the live leads as company's have realised they need 1st class services.

This accelerating leads trend is all well and good but what we really want is for more of them to start the implementation process, and what might cause the millions of other business around the world to switch from off the shelf offerings.

We've all seen the projections of Microsoft teams take up which should deliver opportunities, but time may be closing in on many companies that have failed to take action, Microsoft announced a couple of years ago that they are retiring Skype for Business and most importantly will stop supporting it from July 31, 2021. From the perspective of most individuals that's a so what reaction, I'll deal with it later but from an IT manager's perspective it means they are taking a risk for which they'll be blamed if it fails on them. The clock is ticking on what for the most part may be very small IT department's who maybe can't (don't want to) deal with this alone .

Before you dismiss this, take a look at the linked customer experience write up for a company, McLaren property, that transitioned from Skype to Teams with and cloud telephony with Loopup in 2020 - it's exactly the above scenario - those user cases are really sales pitches of course.

So, are we going to see a surge in new business and existing customer transfers/upgrades and if so is it going to include as yet unidentified clients and Loopup's cloud solution?

Sure all companies can just simple go to a standard transfer using Microsoft, but Loopup are not targeting those companies and for the more discerning customers C19 has hopefully focused them on the need to have the best service. There is enough business already in the pipeline it's just about getting contract signed.

https://loopup.com/en/resource-center/customer-stories/mclaren-building-better-customer-communication-with-loopup/

I explained this yesterday (lost in one of my waffly posts) the revenue is spread over 3 years and it was the reason I asked about the value of the first three contracts, to establish their significance.

There are actually 10 contracts having been or go through POC, the 4th is of undisclosed value (hopefully a big one), but if we assume the total for the 10 is £6 contract value.

The company has confirmed the average contract duration is 3 years, so the value/month is £6/36 = £167,000/month. Being realistic if the average start date is 1st June, then the revenue to year end is 167000 x 7 = £1.169m maximum in 2021.

Hence the companies comment damping down expectations on revenue growth, however, that is not important IMO, certainly not a negative as this is a growth company not a cash machine that needs to pay dividends. As I said yesterday wrt "the amazing power of compounding" if the business continues to grow the live leads at decent rates and convert at say just 5%/month the revenue will start to soar as should profits and what's more it will continue for at least 3 years. That £6m may not materialise in the first year but it will materialise, hopefully along with similar maybe or £6m £8m and £10m in subsequent quarters. Contracts won later in the year will have even less impact this year.

OMG - what do I do? If it's from posters on advfn, we're powerless .

CHR155 - thank you ever so much for being kind enough to tip me off, I'm sure everyone is grateful you're finding the time to get back to us after your great success

Can you just clarify something, who are these posters? - I just checked the posts for the last two weeks and can only see a couple of overtly deramping posts and like Ian.B only one suggesting 60p (alias THE MONGSTER), spookily it was at the end of today's trading and one hour before your post.

I stopped posting on advfn a few years ago and only occasionally read BBs because of the ramping, deramping and down right lies from obnoxious teams and individuals, so I'm a little confused - have they developed some sort of secret code or notation for deramping since I stopped ?

Apologies for last post, the submission process somehow removed all the new line characters.

Following on the theme of the las post, hope everyone noticed in the results the statement about the success they've had in transitioning customers from pay as you go, however, it must reach a stage where any lost customers are best gone ( retained without excess investment) , as it costs excessive money and especially focus of staff to convert them.

"The Group also encouraged a material migration from rolling monthly pay-as-you-go contracts to more cost-effective but locked-in committed term contracts. Such committed contracts accounted for 48% of LPC business by the end of the year compared with 13% at the start of the year"

I guess, there'll be a point where "material migration" is complete and they are better just letting the rest wither away naturally in favour of more lucrative business.

This principle is reinforced with the statement on costs to acquire revenue in SaaS market, they say:

"New Customer CAC Ratio (the fully-loaded cost to acquire £1 of new ARR): improvement to £0.84 (FY2019: £1.38; 2020 SaaS benchmark2 of £1.63)"

That is a very impressive improvement of 39% (my calc) and near half of industry average, hopefully that can be maintained as bigger customers should provide economies of scale. The rolling profitability profile should be equally impressive with a payback period of just over 10 months and customers sign up for 3 years and hopefully stay much longer.

Poker: "The new buzz term is "land and expand"Land a big hitter and then expand business within that organisation.... takes time to develop the initial relationship but then..once the door is open...is becomes easier and cheaper to expand one's offering within"Never heard that, I like it though, these trendy terms come and go but underlying them is common sense.Your point about big hitters leads us to the type of customer Loopup are now targeting. They bought Meeting Zone for £50m to essentially gain traction and access customers who could be transitioned onto their platform from the lower level services - I have suspected the lost customers have been from that cohort who really are transient customer s and likely pay as you go. No one has been forced to transfer but those that don't have no commitment and the retention level is likely low. Explained the weakness in non Professional services for me - how do you compete with free or super-cheap services and more importantly why bother.So profits from those users has slumped as Zoom and other freebies do the job for them, offset by signups to premium services - 2020 was a highly successful year in term of customer take up as evidenced by the huge increase in customer minutes to over a Billion.IMO that has set the stage for a sales effort focused on the more lucrative/discerning clients, I commented yesterday on the confirmation that the average value of live leads is £360,000, by my calculation 10 times the value of existing client - that is a huge shift in so many respects and leaves the "land and expand" principle looking very pertinent. I ignore all the fretting about the SP (I'm not a seller) and no one ever mentions the drip buying I and others are doing, everything is still to play for.

Great news - and we needed it, now they can plan and spend without concern they are wasting money.

However unlikely are refused extension was, until it is confirmed it was an issue.

The RNS tells us much more than the obvious 5 year extension grant - it tells us the relationship with the government is good and they are prepared to talk about granting new territory - rather than simple giving it to the new national flag bearer Azergold.

The extensions they mention provides an interesting insight to the progression of the recovered areas - presumably knowledge of the in-situ resources has progressed since initial contract areas were agreed - maybe Vallax, GeoproMing and other operators proved up some opportunities for us as well as stealing

Also if they have progressed to talking about extensions then they really have gone at a pace in understanding the geology and it begs the question, are they now on-site or have reasonable access (you can't take samples of stockpiles if you are just being escorted around on a visit).

On that subject, I'm not convinced it is a good Idea to transport ore across the country (they need to prove it viable) - it's a distraction and will reduce the overall profit the company can make from the ore. The extra money will just sit in the bank and IMO they would do better to concentrate on getting mines and processing facilities up an running to maximise overall, long term revenue - not pacifying shareholders upset at slight dip in production.

" They haven't just built relationships with big hitters, they're extending/ continuing them."

There's a name for it in sales, "cross selling", "up selling" I can't remember - perhaps I'm confusing cross-dressing. lol

But essential it about leveraging business relationships to sell across different products, Loopup have hinted that this will play a part in growth (they've been doing it for a couple of years with MeetingZone - also discussed development of new services and have allotted a bigger budget to software development. All good.

They need some of this : "Marketing leverage" is the ability to control and generate large profit increases from low-cost or no-cost marketing methods

Offering free trails as recently introduced probably qualifies.

bigsmoke, yes you are right in respect of most customers wanting a bespoke trail but if we consider the process, once the POC is underway the client is hooked provided the system works to fulfil their needs. However, in big contacts and these are on average 10 times bigger than previous client will want evidence of capability before even going to trail the system.

It's like the old adage "on one ever got sacked for buying Microsoft", it would be great to have Loopup considered in the same way.

Buyers will do due diligence as you say hence the time to convert customers. Examples of successful implementations (Case Studies) are established tools to demonstrate capability, I worked on bids, some large and submissions to get onto framework agreements and on occasion been asked to trawl through completed contracts to find examples of similar Implementations to provide proof of capability in a specific area- else you can't be considered.

Take a look at the link to implementations and Case Studies on the Lookup website, having a batch of significant large scale Cloud Comms implementations can't do any harm in reeling customers in when they look at the website.

I took a look at a competitor website a few weeks ago and they had a rolling list of big name client including Hitachi - it always impresses - household names like that must carry clout

https://loopup.com/en/resource-type/customer-stories/

Digging a bit deeper if interested the writeup on the German Savings Banks Association (Deutscher Sparkassen- und Giroverband – DSGV) encapsulates how it all works, but significantly they where an existing customer transitioned from Meeting Zone (though the company did not advise this in the November update), they said:

"We generally expect sales cycles to be approximately 6-8 months, but encouragingly we have already been selected by a leading private banking group to provide their global cloud telephony, subject to a successful 3-month proof of concept which starts next month"

I suspect this is one of the contracts not yet advised, this is a big organisation and the company said could become one of their biggest clients (surely can't be one of the 3). What is interesting is that an existing client confirms they like the service and so trust Loopup to implement at speed for them. This sort of customer must expose the product to a much wider audience of potential new clients.

Example Case Study:
https://loopup.com/app/uploads/2020/12/CaseStudy_LoopUp_German_Savings_Banks_Assocation_USreduced.pdf

Thanks Bigsmoke, doesn't look like anyone disagrees.

I am going somewhere with this, first we've established the contracts are relatively small compared to the pipeline average so some much bigger fish to catch and critically they are "New Clients" so I presume the pipeline does not simple comprise a list of existing client discussing transfer - they are as far as it is possible to tell genuine leads which will add to revenue.

The next batch of potential clients are much bigger and perhaps bigger clients are more cautious. Though we appear to have a conversion rate as of Q1 of only 1% ish (there is no information on existing customers transfers) but by the time we get to the end of Q2 it may be around 7% run rate of converted business and a new batch of proof of concept (POC) clients progressed.

The above looks good to me and if the clients do indeed sign up then surely that provides proof of the business concept to us as well as new potential clients.

So by the time we get the Q2 update we'll have a pattern that should allow projections for Q3 and even Q4 - if all (near all) clients entering POC arrangements sign up then it's fair to assume similar in subsequent quarters.

Once we have a decent pattern/trend for the rate of contract opportunity growth and rate of conversion we can have a good stab at working out the scale of opportunity here and the management can stop telling us they can't foresee how the year will pan out.

IMO they should be signing up at least £5m (preferably much higher) of new business/quarter - bear in mind only 1/3 of it occurs in first year as the average contract is 3 years (explains why turnover will not soar this year - until the amazing power of compounding (Warren Buffett gem) kicks in in late 2021- I believe as long as there is slight growth in each Q it will not disappoint shareholders.

IMO the BoD are missing a trick here, they need to develop some KPI's/ performance metrics to communicate their successes with more clarity and consistency between RNS's, that will build shareholder confidence that it is not all just blue sky thinking and there's a plan- I'm really optimistic we're on a winner here, the company have in truth been very lucky to be in the right place at the right time now all they need to do is the easy bit and make it count.

The company made a statement about the three notable contracts they have won in the last Q, they said:

"New customer wins: 3 with minimum Total Contract Value ("TCV") of £620,000, plus notification of a further RFP win although not yet formally contracted"

Is that TCV of £620,000 for all 3 or just the smallest. I read it as total for 3 which makes them less than average value of £360, 000/ lead in the pipeline.

It is a little ambiguous IMO.

The statement about the other 6 in trail period is explicitly stated as £5m - much larger TCV/client - " we now have 6 live Proofs of Concept ("POC") with customers whose intent is to move ahead with LoopUp but first wish to test the capability in their own environment. A POC period is typically 1-3 months. The potential TCV of these live POCs is approximately £5 million."

What ! 87.3p, that's disappointing mate, your sums they can't be right, I hoped we were getting ready for blast off to a couple of quid.

bigsmoke, thanks for your reply, I'll take the Champagne back and see if I can get a refund.

Bigsmoke - I'm always keen to know your viewpoint, so assuming you haven't just posted on the wrong BB, please explain what you mean about Friday, I haven't a clue what you are hinting at, Bitcoin may be?

On the subject of crazy SP, I always assume MM's are manipulating then it is much easier to rationalise the irrational SP movement, as all we see WRT trades becomes suspect.

Nothing makes sense, Stew200, judging by your thousands of posts, surely you know that (Bitcoin mania says it all).

Loop is doing fine and not unusually targeted, more ignored, logic will prevail if the company provides an irresistible investment case. Recently they have misfired on numerous fronts although the latest RNS suggests they are on the mend they still need to prove it.

I believe this year will be transformational , they'll either end a Beautiful swan or a dead duck, not everyone is convinced they know the likely outcome.

I happen to think they are extremely undervalued as a growth company in a growth sector, but who cares what I think (rhetorical question).

Have a nice weekend, should be easy as you appear easily pleased. Don't spend the whole of your profit in one shop, save a bit for the pub

It's all about perspective on what you call a big win of course, if you've had a huge win, well done mate, but did you include dealing charges. I've made a few quid myself today, but I won't even brag to my wife as I have to remember it's transient until cashed out. You treat yourself to a pint an curry perhaps if you've cashed out.

You must be a real high roller, a few hundred grand at least as the three actual miners you touted on this BB have barely risen enough to cross the spread and definitely not enough to cover recent falls.

Please don't buy in big next week, give me a chance to top first

All the profits going into loop I trust - we need you in the team.

CHR155 you clearly think this is a screaming "BUY", you're just quibbling over a couple of pence and you are sweating with an advanced case of FOMO - explains why you post frantically and try to set the agenda. lol

I almost wish it would drop another couple of pence to facilitate your buy, then we don't have to read anymore of your nonsense. I hope we're talking a significant quantity here and not just a few hundred quids worth after all the attention you've garnered on the BB.

CHR155 -- Cure for your FOMO - press the buy button then you can start ramping or it will only get worse

CHR155 - He'll need a lot of luck if he takes tips from BB posters.

I'm in Loop and HUM (also been in CEY), to sell Loop to buy those is ridiculous, they are totally different beasts, who have also let shareholders down, in the case of HUM, costs have soared and the management have not explained (to my satisfaction ) why. They also have regional risks and though I suspect gold will rise your assertion that "gold is about to fly" is to put it bluntly UNTRUE, soon after posting that here you said "POG dropping now, we need positive thinking!!" on the CEY BB. Positive thinking doesn't alter the outcome of anything- I repeat you don't know where POG (price of gold) is going. My advice to you, don' t thoughtlessly ramp your share choices on an unrelated BB.

Loop now have massive potential (IMO more than any of those companies you list), and the core problem which is being used to crush the SP is that it is still just that "potential", just keep an eye on the conversion rate of the opportunities pipeline. I started looking at interpolating the figures currently available but we need more information, the company doesn't even know yet.

For instance, even 20% conversion will IMO provide the necessary growth to double the SP, whereas 10% will largely be swallowed up by lost business.

When that becomes clear we can hazard an educated guess a growth potential for the next couple of years.

Yes, some clarity, but the absence of much information on the restored areas and exploration leaves the option for a follow up RNS in the next week or two together with the optimism missing today's offering.

Holding back metal for sale accounts for the cash difference I think most everyone understands that, the real issue being pounced upon is the reduced production, hopefully they will find a way to increase through the year.

I, like I suppose everyone else, am disappointed with the lack of progress - I suspect they have taken their eye off the ball with all the other stuff that has occurred - they need to take care of the basics of maintaining production from existing operations. Processing stuff from Vejnaly or any other added ore is great but it shouldn't be a replacement for core production, ,else we get nowhere.

Yesterday there where indicators that the inflation rate in the US is accelerating, which led to an increase in the gold price, an upward push that has persisted this morning with strong resistance at $1750/oz.

In this environment AAZ's share price should at least be stable, yet the SP is showing signs of weakness. With such poor sentiment, IMO, AAZ and other gold miners represent a great buying opportunity as many are in great financial health and making excellent returns at the current gold price - rather than a signal to run for the hills.

What AAZ are short of is a clear catalyst to signal this as a "no-brainer" investment", I suspect it is on the radar of many who are happy sit on the side lines and wait clarity.

That catalyst is slow in coming, and anxiety has definitely set in, I've said previously that news on 2021 expectations is very slow compared to previous years. They really don't need the newly restored areas to have a bumper year, the new discoveries they are currently progressing are very promising and need progressing to production as fast as possible above any effort in the new areas, is the right way forward IMO.
The new areas are not essential and will just add cherries to the top of a large tasty cake.

RNS please!

gold5 - do you really fear a 10%+ sudden fall in SP and in that scenario expect the trade executed at price? I don't share your fears, as I have no evidence to raise concern

I think you are over thinking the Russian threat, it will be sneaky and opaque IMO, some might say more likely greasing palms and personally threats and favours than any military action - building forces on the Ukraine border is one thing attacking a friendly nation in a totally different ball game, it isn't going to happen (they have deals with all regional countries and want trade routes) - especially with Turkish forces embedded in the Country the cost would be horrendous - a NATO member with a powerful military and the capability to frustrate Russian interests in important places elsewhere.

WRT stealth, I read an article from the Armenian press this weekend , with quotes from local officials in the area of Zod (Mayor etc), they claim the Azerbaijanis have moved back 50M in the mine as the border has been redefined and the mine is unworkable from the Azeri side, underground workings are on their side and that only 60% of the mine is lost compared with the75%+ elsewhere.

When I read it, I immediately thought it Propaganda, not aimed at Azeri's or investors, but to pacify locals who are losing or in fear of losing their jobs and I suspect angry with what they will see as failings of those representatives.

Incidentally I had pondered the mine boundary and the difficulty of working in the vicinity for both sides - to extract ore from the vicinity without cooperation would be incredibly dangerous (they'll have to cooperate) I assume powerful explosives are used to liberate the rock and all workers need to take cover before blasting - both sides will need warning systems - that may account for the peacekeepers moving back 50m. I would expect there to be an area of neutral zone if not now eventually that is not mined, or it could get very silly.

Consider from Geopromining's viewpoint , any confusion over the % of the mine that can claimed will be of great value to them in pacifying bondholders and rating agencies. As I said earlier a sceptical guy might conclude stealth and opacity is the Russian style. Sometimes not as opaque as they'd like though, Novachok in underpants is very stealthy and they nearly got away with it, but for German efficiency. lol