Member Info for jointhedots

stew - of course you may be right we can probably never know, but your comment about MMs is wrong IMO, they may balance the books but that doesn't mean they don't buy shares for themselves or sell even non-existent shares, its only my opinion. MMs do on occasions act fraudulently, that's why there have been prosecutions in the past, for instance when their trading arm of the business did not exercise the required Chinese Walls to ensure honesty. Remember they are privy to much more information than us, including our trading habits as they see all the trades.

Of course you need to reconcile it in your own personal way, but in the absence of information it works for me and has helped me reconcile many situations, the fact that shareholders are genuinely selling as well or shorters piling in does not invalidate the premise - in fact those addition factors help explain why it works so well as a profitable MM exercise (they know what's happening).

Thordon - I've been trying to advise the BB for some while that the enemy is most likely the MM's opportunistically overstepping there role to provide a market and actually manipulating it to amongst other things boost activity and volatility. I can see how it could possibly be a big shareholder, except as a contributory factor.

Sadly, as I've said before the fault lies with the BoD and they need gat to grips with the actions necessary to defend the company. They can stop the rot but as yet are failing miserably to do so.

Stew - excellent, and I bet you feel a great deal better for it - even if you don't get a response your communication will matter.

Gallmat - if only it was that simple.

AAZ have to drill for what is in the ground, they are regaining areas where Copper and other valueable metal are found regionally and I'm very optimistic that the value of the areas will prove very high - but it is in the fullness of time and Gold is the most valuable metal for which the company is already geared up.

IMO you are wrong about Gold, it will do fine, Bitcoin can rise together with gold and currently it is a fraction of the market size of gold and is used for practically nothing accept speculation and money laundering. Gold responds inversely to $US movement (as it becomes more expensive as the dollar rises) and bond yields - the opportunity cost associated with not drawing mugs in because they are in Bitcoin is insignificant overall. sure you can make phenomenal money on Bitcoin and other crypo's, but I'd never sleep at night because I believe it's a Pyramid scheme.

I've heard it all before mate - Bitcoin is a bubble, it may survive I really don't know, but I'm certain gold will, history teaches us a lot and gold has thousands of years as a solid value store.

stew - I've just challenged you and everyone else to do something positive, it is as you say dodgy, but as I've pointed out too many times now, blame those ultimately responsible, our BoD.

My personal opinion is that this is MM's playing games in the absence of confidence.

continuation of rant:

I push against the moaning because it always goes the same way and loads the gun for the "bear" side to fire, Always the same soul searching from angry or distressed shareholders, asking "Why, why, way and grumbling about the injustice of it all".

What has happened here is unpleasant and IMO overdone but no different than has occurred many times on AIM and it has some pretty obvious explanations. Why fret over a SP that the only thing you can do to change is buy shares (which I've been doing). Whereas understanding the company better helps settle nerves and understand the risks - gives me confidence to buy more.

I occasionally contact companies I invest in an offer an opinion if I'm annoyed enough and vote against directors (unlike most who don't dare) and will rip into directors on the BBs if I feel it justified - they are the ones to challenge over the SP, no one else - I suggest you and others give them a call or write with concerns. IMO discussing the news flow failings and lack of clarity in RNS's is addressing the SP movement is a real sense, addressing causes, rather than just grumping.

I think the point just made by our pal CRI155 point is a good one "clearly board have little interest" IMO that premise needs testing - so I urge all on the BB to contract the company to express concerns, but for god's sake address newsfow/comms/performance etc, don't grumble about the SP as they are not allowed to act to support that directly.

Is that enough for you mate? I'm doing my best, but do you really think my rant helps the SP or gives anyone confidence?

Perhaps better to be boring and to point out that they have put another writeup of a customer converting to cloud comms.

Bigsmoke - "there are some shareholders that'll discuss anything but the share price.."

I assume you are referencing me there mate, if so I would point out I have recently addressed my thoughts on the current SP and major historical movement, probably in more detail than anyone recently on this BB. You know full well I don't shy away from any awkward debate, but I simply don't see the point of agonising over the day to day movement as it simply gives ammunition to enemies of the company.

Loopup where apparently awarded a place on the government's new "G Cloud 12" procurement framework for their Direct Routing for Microsoft Teams. The framework went live in October so no work is likely developed from it yet - I really don't know if it will even generate work and I guess Loopup don't either, but if they get anything across a large department it could open the door to very lucrative opportunities and partnering to larger IT companies (they should be developing relationships). I guess the public sector must dwarf any other sector in terms to potential users For a lot of government work if you're not on the appropriate framework you can't even bid to be considered (unless of course you are a friend of Matt Han**** or government minister lol).

The framework will likely run for a couple of years, but it's the next couple of years where the land grab will occur IMO as adoption of Cloud gathers pace - there are hundreds of contractors on the list, but I'm not sure how many competing with Loopup.

https://loopup.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/loopups-direct-routing-for-microsoft-teams-awarded-a-place-on-the-g-cloud-12-public-sector-procurement-framework/
https://www.crowncommercial.gov.uk/agreements/RM1557.12

I've been investing a lot longer than that, for decades, I've made so many mistakes and still do - you are absolutely right to do as much research as possible (there are too many lazy shareholders on AIM who only want to discuss the SP). It's a sad state of affairs, but we need to be sceptical on everything, the following entities lie and cheat: BB posters, directors, analysts, MMs and any other associated entity not already mentioned. lol

CHR155 - "we", it's we now is it - you were not a shareholder and now claim to be, yet include a subtle deramp in your post as is your way. Very strange for you to come up with July, where did you get that date?

The update may be in July, but there could be an update tomorrow for all you know. And since when where we "firmly" below 75p - you look to be at the same old game to me.

BigB - I agree entirely, just providing the legally required information is not shareholder engagement - they are prioritising customer engagement and I can't fault that, but the last corporate presentation on the website is from the middle of last year and was produced in July 2020 - it's a company in the IT/Comms sector for gods sake.

DavidLaw - we are all trying to deduce what the information provided by the company actually indicates.

IMO, they are really poor at presenting KPI's/ data metrics which are clear enough to dig down into what is really happening and so hazard a guess as 2021 performance - lets face it they said they where unsure themselves until they guess turnover will be flat or slightly lower in 2021.

I don't think they defined ARR clearly. Does it mean guaranteed/contracted earnings or expected/subject to cancellation . I suspect a mixture and it's at a point in time, hence my post about the value of the trend to 3 years contracts from PAYG.

I read it as £34m is the expectation of base earnings for 2021 (as they said use that figure), it doesn't stop any analyst from using a discounted figure - it's IMO a best guess.

IMO the rate of conversion of the new leads is the key factor, not the base load where in time trends should improve simply as a result of transfer to new longer contracts.

The problem here is that there are no clearly defined and robust measures(KPIs) that are reproduced in each update, IMO that's because they then can be easily judged, often harshly, and a BoD cannot then flannel over poor performance in coming periods. Many companies are guilty of this, it's to retain a level of indirection for selfish reasons.

It's often very hard to do the counter intuitive thing and buy when there is distress and confusion over weakness - but I've been doing the same as you.

There is nothing erratic about the movement, it's a slowly moving trend which does not indicate anything other than buyers are short of a good reason to think anything will change any time soon - essentially as someone posted yesterday - our BoD need to start communicating with shareholders more regularly. Give potential shareholders a reason to buy NOW and not wait, it's all too predictable I think a new corporate presentation would be a good start.

On the subject of predictable, I'm truly sorry for anyone hurt with HUR dilution proposal, I normally avoid talking about shares I don't hold but guys what on earth were you and other shareholders thinking of the last few months, the BoD made it clear that shareholder could/would likely be wiped out - there are going to be over 20bn shares owned by those that don't want them and simply want money(all profits) out in Bond repayments in the coming years, for a company that will need to go to the market again to finance anything how can they prosper! Sorry to be brutal but I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole - the dilution is as brutal as I've ever seen as it still leaves the company with potentially unserviceable debt, the business proposition died when Dr Trice was discredited - PI's are being scalped trying to support the SP and if I were to hazard a guess Bondholders will be shorting the shares as usual.

I have trouble rationalising the customer turnover numbers, lead pipeline and it's value - how do we deduce the scale and timing of potential growth?

The company says:
" Gross retention of 86% in PS (in line with 2020 SaaS benchmark: 86%), compared with 67% in non-PS"
" Live opportunities pipeline: further growth to potential TCV of £106 million3 from a cold start in July 2020"
" This TCV assumes an average minimum contract term of two years, which we consider to be highly conservative given nearly all later stage discussions are for terms of at least three years. "

Ignoring non- PS, they on average retain 86% of existing business every year but that doesn't provide a profile or allow us to deduce how the company will grow without making some very broad assumptions.

To explain, the current average loss of 16% was weighted with short term contracts, long term, fixed 2 or 3 year contract will result in losses weighted in year 4 and thereafter. It matters because if they sign new customers on rapidly for 3 year contracts then the rate of loss will drop rapidly over the next few years (that's why they performed well be some KPI's last year perhaps).

For example, if we assume an even distribution of lost business on existing contracts then they lose all customers in 6 years at approximately 16%/year.

It is a major positive that committed contracts % grew dramatically last year ("committed contracts accounted for 48% of LPC business by the end of the year compared with 13% at the start of the year"), I believe that is a very significant trend, which mean that lost business % rates should drop this year and next across the existing PS business.

Based on the £50m turnover approximately £8m of business will be lost per year assuming there is no improvement as a result of the 2020 trend.

So they need to generate £8m of new business this and every year thereafter to standstill out of an opportunity pipeline of £106m (53m/annum) and that's without any new leads which are in reality are growing fast. As the average NEW contract length is 3 years IMO it's fair to assume no losses until year 4 and then total loss over years 4, 5 and 6 (historical pattern) - if so that £106m pipeline is indeed very conservative.

What I'm alluding to here is that growth from the pipeline should start to make a real difference because of the particular nature of the contracts (the change to 3 years and reducing trend for pay as you go which hurt us last year will be a bonus) will result in a lull in lost business. There should also be a reduction in sales effort to simple retain turnover (again reflected in the 2020 trend of reduced cost of acquiring business).

As I have said previously it all hinges of the conversion rate and the pace at which they eventually convert, Loopup have everything to play for, we need just more data to get some clarity

I hope so, have put a chunk of my money into this.

I don't get hung up on SP watching, I take opportunities to buy low or sell high in all my investments - sometimes it works for me- it's working with Loopup as I'm still a buyer. Not everyone is distressed or even worried.

As I've said before, I believe in the business case and that I'm going to make money so why should I try to micro-analyse the SP.

stew200 - I'm sure there are lots of potential suitors that could wish to takeover Loopup, buy IMO there is little chance of a deal being done at current SP. Even a 100% premium would leave most shareholders, me included, feeling short changed. The business is developing fast and the next year or so will see the scale of the opportunity become clearer and provide a clear path to a multi-bagger investment.

Our CEO's have made mistakes, but they are on the right path now and will want to play this out.

They have now refocused the business and recognised what they have to do and what to ditch to succeed - IMO things are going to get much better.

In recent RNS's they have highlighted that core Professional Services (PS) is the future. IMO this will distinguish to company, and in truth the general stuff appears to be a dead end with huge competition.

I took a brief look at the alternatives in the non PS sector and the there dozens (possibly hundreds of alternatives) of companies on top of the obvious big players like Zoom. It's a huge growing sector and here is very little in the way of barriers to entry into the market, except I suppose reputation, which if the customers don't sign up to a long term contract and are simply cost driven doesn't matter that much - all the companies will be jostling for market share and unable the charge a decent premium - a basic service is free.

Loopup have identified a great niche, companies with strict/exacting requirements, where new entrants will find it harder to justify their service, IMO Loopup are on the right track and the last thing I want before the business proposition is proven is a takeover .

It's pretty obvious the SP is at the mercy of small scale trading, but more likely MMs playing games.

But above and beyond that, the root cause of our SP weakness is the failure of our company to deliver growth in a consistent manner and so they have disappointed the market. So lets please stop focusing on what is clearly just a consequence and something we must accept with every company - "when the cats away the mice will play", and out CEO's (2 of them) have fallen short and left us vulnerable - I say sack one.

On the plus side, I now believe we are on the right track, and the solution to your frustrations is in the hands of our management team - if they deliver decent growth the we will see a good rise in SP.

It's down to them, unfortunately they took the easy option of only predicting flat profits this year - IMO that is lazy of them and simply designed to manage expectations which were raised too high in 2020.

Microsoft's success can't be seen as anything other than a positive for Loopup, good, pertinent research bigsmoke.

Just bought another £10k worth, 10% off the year low is a buy signal not a sell as prospects are clearly improving for the company. 76.8p is fine for me.

We all regret buying shares when the price falls significantly below the purchase price, that is true across all companies and all sectors - but we all make our own decisions and have to live with them.

Some shareholders bought in at £4, whatever the price it has no bearing at all on the prospects for the company, except that the capital raise injected £50m cash into assets at £4/share - those investing in at current prices are getting the assets on the cheap.

bigsmoke, it's not like you to go wobbly, you either believe in the business proposition or you don't, the SP weakness is disappointing, but that's all it is, it has no bearing on prospect or where the SP can rise to.

It's absolutely pointless dwelling on the SP, we need to focus on pressing management on their failings if anything, they are our only mechanism to help impact change, however little our influence is.