RE: Join the dots30 Sep 2021 00:06
I'm far too trusting, I think its a mistake many us make.
Like many, I suspected for some time they were up to something, I feared the worst - taking it private, a huge placing or buying something stupid, all options to cover for their mistakes.
I should have trusted my gut feeling, IMO they have betrayed shareholders.
So here we are, my stance is very respectful, that what they have done is despicable, they are scum.
It explains why the SP has been so weak and the BoD had no interest in defending shareholder interests (only the inner circle who as a result of this I suspect hold a bigger proportion of the company on the cheap), It also explains why the company didn't launch the employee share purchase scheme - they knew the price would be undercut.
I think a lot of insiders/staff and others knew about this (or that something was going on for a long time) and so could take action to prepare and even short with impunity.
All that said, it gets me nowhere, we need to consider our own positions and make the best of it. For a start I looked at primarybid tonight and had my finger of the trade button but decided not to buy any more, as it's too much of a kneejerk - the offer is now closed as will be the trade offer probably get update before market opening.
It goes without saying the SP is to be well down tomorrow, IMO the SP will tend to 25p over the coming days depending on the new stance of II's as some PI's will IMO sell at lows offset by bargain hunters when the price is low enough. My expectation is at worst to within 5 or 10% of the placing price, if it falls below I shall buy every one I can afford.
Now the deal is done (disclosed) and debt sorted there is no reason those sitting on the side lines should not buy. I'm actually expecting a good recovery after we hit rock bottom (it happened with other placings).
Dilution is not 50% by the way it is nearer a third as the new shares are 50.5% of existing number resulting in 150.5% of shares and the post capital raise - I believe the logical like for like share price should be (25p x 50.5 + 40p x 100)/150.5 = 35p. Remember they are introducing new capital to contribute to the average, it's not all one sided.
So it is not unreasonable to expect 35p when the deed is completed.
I'm p**sed off, but take some consolation in that - they only bought a small business what if it had been much bigger or if they had waited until after the update and then applied a discount, or bank refused to negotiate. Finally, lets not forget that post deal they are in a much stronger financial position and presumably with good software development staff (valuable asset), and new company capabilities to sell.