Member Info for JohnLewis79

Holding such a large stake in REA has its advantages mainly that they can control the direction of the Company, more of a family fiefdom if you will.
That's fine by me as having so much skin in the game concentrates the mind wonderfully.
Long standing in the rubber and palm oil estates business
I'd much rather they guide the Company than a bunch of ship jumping iis controlling our affairs.
Downside is any offer for the Co cannot get passed without their okay which may not please pis who might think any offer to be fair and full.
I rate the chances of a take over at no more than 5/1 or 20% at best. But then you didn't invest here on take over hopes, did you?

Not yer usual Boris tub thumping speech full of optimism though it was for Britain, but a tad light on details which was a given imo considering the state of division in this country.
Nobody wanted to listen to reams of statistics, more a broad palette of the opportunities within the UKs grasp, which he said this country a world leader in many tech and medical aspects would continue to build on, be it more hospitals, more police, more investment and better education for school children the Conservatives would deliver.
He was light on Brussels bashing and Corbin kicking two easy targets for sure. In fact he was moderate in his language
and rarely got fired up to better effect I think.

A good performance for an old hand at this game nevertheless he had to pull it off and he did.

Isn't it about time the Lse redesigned the notification form for holdings? Two lines at most should do it instead of having to plough through a lot of gobbledygook!
As with all things financial they are designed to bemused and befuddle.

Emba Holdings have upped their stake to 29.72% of the issued thats 13,022,420 shares, previous 11,802,420. Thats dangerously near making an offer for the Co though you can be sure they will get a waiver. I believe Emba is controlled by the Robinow family
and Mr Robinow owns some
11,082,420 in his own right. A material piece of news but of no impact on the shares. It may 'encourage les autres' though the sp is up with events imo.

Ftse clobbered down 123 on some poor construction nos (similar to the US) for Sept showing a steep decline in orders....companies cutting costs etc,.. Dow futures are pointing to a weak start in the US calling the 30 down 175 at open.

Supply Teacher May said no deal is better than a bad deal. From what I have read BJs deal is a bad deal already rejected by Ireland, so likely back to square one.
Technically he could write a grovelling letter seeking an extension, go to Brussels and veto it. Job done. Won't happen I'm afraid as the EU wish to discourage other members from thinking of leaving by punishing Britain. Over optimism is one of the PMs more pleasing traits but I fear he is misguided in thinking the EU will play ball.

Seems likely but cannot see the point. Why not buy in one chunk and parcel them out later? The broker would lose the commission vol of course under that method but who knows what Company brokers get up to when dealing stocks? Whatever Mirabaud need to drum up business normally the job of the CEO who may not be much invested/interested in pushing the sp. I believe REA has a new CEO so am not sure whether this will be part of her remit.
With such a huge lag between mrkt cap and debt pile they have probably given up on closing the gap which looks to be manageable, yes but insurmountable for many years to come.

Seem to have fallen of a cliff with zero trades since Mon last. Can't explain this particularly as the run up to the New Year tends for
interest to resume and vols increase from Oct.
I see quite a bit of action among the tiddlers whom are "news" dependent for sp moves in the main. REA is on the main board so one would think could trade 'newsless' so to speak but suffers from being in an unloved sector which strangely seems to effect SE Asia a lot more than West Africa in the 'hate palm oil' stakes / rhetoric.
Bad press, fires, sustainability worries, biodiversity, illegal logging of the forests & cont harassment by Greenpeace mean investing in palm oil stocks is one foot forward, two back.
I'm certain the UK managed estates are fully compliant, best managed, most responsible in estate upkeep with workers well looked after and paid above the local average. This to me trumps the daily bad press palm receives without ever acknowledging the benefits to millions of people employed and the 10s of millions who use palm for the basics of life such as cooking.
Not the most exciting sector for investors but one that will cont to perform given that expansion
will be halted / limited and production in the years ahead will plateau as demand increases albeit at a slower rate. Prices should be resilient in the $600-$700 range perhaps as soon as 2022/5 supported by BD100.

The start of Q4 saw a sell off in US stocks following the PMI index (US factory activity) shrinking for the second month to the lowest since 2009.
Weak China data, unrest in HK and the yield curve stoked recessionary fears.
The Dow lost 344 (26573) just 11 points off the days low. The S&P and techs both fell 36 and 91 respectively. Oils had a bad day Exxon & Chevron off 2%, WTI $54.21 eked out a 24c gain.

In Asia, China still closed, the Nikkei slipped 125 with HK surprisingly resilient (-118) on traders return given the shocking scenes of violence in the central district. All other Pan Pacifics are lower.

Australia cut rates 0.25% bp to a low of 0.75% for the first time in 3 years in an effort to boost the flagging economy where the jobless rate is 5.3%. The All odds fell 1.3% led down by Banks. The All is one of the best global stock mrkt performers running c.19% up ytd.

Oil $ 59.29. Gold $1483. Palm $545. $1.228. €1.123. FF -33. DF +43.
Morning all.

recent raises by REA (7.5% $ notes) etc, can be found in the H/Y report under 'financing.'

Patience rugs....I'm sure these are headed lower due to the CPO price to stubbornly resist climbing anywhere near $580.
Still good value I guess but what is good value? The mrkt doesn't know over did it on the way up as it did going down, ya just gotta catch the swings. Tbh I can't be bothered to play that game. I don't expect to be well rewarded here by that i mean a 2x bagger so am loathe to chance my arm elsewhere among the blue chips which can be just as risky as small caps. Showing a pretty decent profit in the few months here I should be long gone.
Will the future of Palm be brighter in 2019/20? I dont know but I'll stick around and see. Having been busted by that c***t
W what's another couple of k down the crappola?
Always like to end a post on.a bright note...heh heh heh...

Hong Kong and mainland China are closed for a week long National Day holiday in celebration of 70 years of Communist rule.
In Japan the Nikkei is ahead 136 despite the 2 percentage points sales tax raise to pay for rising health costs and the national debt. Also mrkts have one eye on a possible 0.25% rate cut in Australia.

Oil $ 59.60. Gold $ 1470.
Palm $549. $ 1.229.
€ 1.128. FF -1. DF + 106.

Morning all.

Expect you saw the huge poster under hanging a bridge in Salford with two human 'dead Tories' strung up below. The poster read '130,000 killed under Tory rule. Time to level the playing field.'
Is this part of Labour's kinder gentler politics? Will comrade Corbin surrender and apologise for what many see as an outright threat?

5 basis points....

As recession fears mount in Global economies "Helicopter" money is being considered to stimulate economies as Central Banks have very little firepower left in their lockers.
Helicopter money is when central banks finance Govt spending though money printing but can also credit individuals bank accounts or haircuts to debt. For instance in a downturn the BOE would typically cut rates by c.5% however with UK rates at 0.75% negative rates are not considered viable in the UK.
The world is already swamped in debt. Total debt has tripled since 1999 to $247 trillion and as a % of GDP is at record highs in advanced economies.

Radical and unconventional methods will be needed should the Eurozone considered one of the most vulnerable economies fall into recession.

FFS! I'll have to start proof reading my posts. Current $549.10.

Indonesia palm oil prices forecast (Jan-Jun) 2020 to be c.$580 fob. World palm consumption to exceed 2019 levels as PO prices recover over the next few months.
The Editor of Oil World sees CPO prices to average c. $610 in H1 2020 cif Rotterdam due to a slow down in world growth, a rise in demand led by Indonesia (B30) biofuel demand due to start in Jan 2020 and continuing demand from India & China.
While Indonesia 2020 production is forecast to hit 46mt (44.1mt) and Malaysia 2020 palm oil to fall slightly from 20.5mt in 2019.

Trade talks dominate action at the start of wk40. White House plans to restrict US investment in Chinese companies have been put on hold though not ruled out a WH spokesman said.
On the mrkts TK is 165 lower, HK ahead 134 but the SHCOMP down 12 ahead of a 5 day National Holiday in China. Other Pan Pacifics mainly lower Indonesia & Malaya off 0.5%.

Oil $61.01. Gold $1500.
Palm $1549. $ 1.230.
€1.124. FF -10. DF +93.

Morning all.

John 'underpants' Major has some cheek digging out Boris to moderate his language, when I distinctly remember him referring to some of his colleagues as 'bastards'
In fact I read that our PM won the Queens English Soc prize for excellent English on two occasions.

I wonder if Major ever received such an honour?

An okay wk for REA dropping 2 the wk after the H/Y. The cpo price fared worse falling $6.60 (1.2%).

REA put out the begging bowl and tapped various home town supporters for £4.9m net of expenses.
No prospectus was issued so other invstrs were left in the dark as to why REA needed a piddling £4.9m?
Its hardly going to make a dent in REAs debt pile.
Anyways whatever the reason a favoured few gained an immediate 12% not overwhelming but acceptable given associated risks in oil palm shares. However with a worst way value of 250 mid I would have subscribed had I had the wherewithal and given 'the
reason' for the raise.

Still I mus'nt ***** too much as I'm in profit though ytd REA is down 35% against the All Share up 11% and the Bursa Malaysia plantation index off near 800 or down 10%.

A closer comparison would be MPE who ytd is 6% down. REA has fallen pretty much in a straight line from 250 bouncing off 98 low while MPE has yoyoed between 650 & 700 ytd, current 637.

Mrkts:
Ftse +0.5%
All +0.7%
DJ +0.5%
SP -1.0%
TK -0.8%
HK -1.8%
SH - 2.5%

Brent -5% ($61.24)
Gold -1.4%($1503)

$ - 1.4% (1.229)
€ - 0.8% (1.123)

Morning all.