Member Info for JohnLewis79

The EU as we expected are refusing to engage with the Govt on any level of talks. The German woman has said a deal is not possible under any circumstances unless Ireland stays in the customs union. Goodness me who would have thought that?
Let's face it the UK have to leave as soon as possible as trust has broken down between the parties and any further talks will be frustrated by the EU or Ireland leading to a ridiculous blame game. Who knows if this is the end or will there be a last minute concession, an extension to Article 50, another Referendum or an election on no deal terms or remain in the EU.

So be it. The Lab Party will side with the remainers and the EU, nothing new there, hoping to throw out the PM which has been their main focus for many months and force us to remain subjugated to the apparatchiks of the EU and the breakup of the Union egged on by the poisoned dwarf and shouty fat boy.
Personally I'm not bothered about Scotlands independence or their wish to remain tied to Europe. Good luck, I won't give it another thought.

However I would be very upset if Wales sought to leave the UK given the Tudors (Henry V11) were of Welsh origin and have binded Wales to England (despite Owen Glendowers best efforts urged on by the North)... since the early 1400s.

Remember the Welsh bowman at Agincourt in 1415 who cut down the French army leaving Lawrence Olivier victorious? We few, we happy few, we band of brothers for he that sheds his blood today.....

Perhaps I'm being sentimental but Wales seceeding from the UK and no more Wales v Eng at rugby....No, no, no
and remember Wales voted 52.5% to leave the EU siding with England while Scotland and N.Ireland voted remain.

There's lots that bind us, more than divides us and long may it remain so.

Just moved the spread a touch from 158/165 to 160/169 on a 9237 buy at 169. That's the first trade of the wk albeit larger than most of recent times. Maybe it's your bullish sign rugs?
With CPO prices still sub $550 the jury is veey much out deliberating.

Scotland's Outer House Court of Session backed the PM by ruling the so called Benn Act forcing the PM to seek an extension to article 50 if he was unable to secure a deal with the EU was invalid.
Further battles lie ahead, ie., another visit to the Supreme Court.

Hopes on high level trade talks bouyed Asian mrkts, Japan's Nikkei up 234, HK gaining 97 and China up 19.
VP Liu He will head the delegation to Washington for talks on Thrursday. Shares in HK Exch & Clearing rose on the announcement it was pulling its bid for the LSE.

Overnight US stocks closed lower on all the usual worries with Turkey now added to Trumps list
of countries he wants to punish should they defy him. He referred to his own great unmatched wisdom in tweeting ""he would obliterate their economy"". Go Chump you a-hole.
Dow down 96 (26478) S&P
off 13 (2939) and the techs 26 lower (7956). Dow is off 342 Oct (mtd). WTI $53.03 +52c.

Oil$ 58.81. Gold $1496.
Palm $547. $ 1.229.
€ 1.120. FF +13. DF +73.
Seems the log in matter has been sorted.
Morning all.

This will be my last post...hurrah I hear you say...but logging in every post is becoming....you can guess!

EU to decide by end of wk whether the PMs plan is workable. Meanwhile Labour wants an interim Govt of National Unity led by the 'Comrade' others by the 'pipsqueaker' Bercow. Nobody wants the Undems schoolgirl apart from shouty SNP fat boy.
All this presupposes Boris getting the heave-ho in a vote of no confidence which looks a non starter.

The Benn act designed to stop us leaving without a deal is the PMs stumbling block. How is he to evade that? He has stated on many occasions he will not break the law so one must assume a loop hole has been found around the Benn Act.

In an effort to speed up MSPO certification estates of more than 40.5ha that fail to obtain MSPO will be penalised and fined.
Of the 2.96mha of the 5.85mha of Palm Oil plantations only (51%) have been certificated and 288/448 mills likewise.
This is a long way short of the Malaysian Govts target.
Many say the MSPO does not go far enough and rubber stamps the cert process. That's the view of the anti palm oil brigade
who ignore the fact and it's worth remembering that palm estates are a more efficient carbon sink than rainforests as every ha of palm assimilated c.64t of CO2 compared to 42t of rainforest.
A number of studies confirm this fact the latest of which is 'Energies' published Aug 2018.

No one denies that illegal forest burning has a hugely damaging effect on the environment and every effort is needed to stamp this out but blaming palm oil for all the world biodiversity problems is silly.

Indonesia with a pop of c.265m is spread over thousands of islands and where c.45% of the pop live outside of Java. That makes illegal palm operations easy and is much harder to control let alone regulate.

The Nikkei opened down from the bell currently off 46, (HK & China closed) other Pan Pacifics marginally ahead.
The US jobs report gave some comfort to dealers as the nos we're deemed broadly satisfactory having dropped to a 50 year low, this underpins household and consumer spending which to date has been propping up the US economy.
The Dow's 372 points gain on Friday boosted sentiment, the S&P added 41 but it ended the wk posting its 3rd consecutive loss.

The big news in Asia is HSBC is aiming to axe 10,000 of its 240,000 worldwide workforce in a massive cost cutting drive. HSBC makes 80% of its money overseas and is hunkering down in this low to negative interest rate environment.
HSBC stock has underperforned (down 7%) ytd both the All Share and 100, respectively up 7% and 6%.

The nos: Oil $ 58.29.
Gold $1511. Palm $ 547.
$ 1.233. € 1.123. FF -6
DF -100.

Morning all.

Flat over the wk at 158/160 on 17,415 traded
11 bargains of which I think 3000 were sells at 155 & 156.
I wouldn't say this is a base as anything could derail us, for instance some concerted selling could knock 25 off in a heartbeat. Others in the sector hardly budged, Anglo +7 (443), MPE up 1
(648) & the tiddlers little movement, DKL (2) & EPA
(0.85). CPO lost $3 on the wk and $17 over 1 month.

Investors are sidelined in the absence of any good news while production increases are likely to lead to more inventory and weak CPO prices. The BM plantation index was down 65 (6568) at close and has fallen c.3.5% over 1 month.

The nos:-

Ftse -271
All S -138
250 -491

DJ -246
SP -10
TK -469
HK -134
SH -27

Oil $58.26 (-$3)
Gold $1508 (+$5)
$ 1.230 (-44c)
€ 1.112 (u/c)

Morning all.
Go Palace!

Remember the old adage trotted out on a Friday pre close... "i wouldn't be wanting to hold these over the wk/end")....Why did this drivel become such perceived wisdom, cast in stone, that spread like wildflower among pis and yet was rarely, if ever acted on? Who the f**k started that?

I, never believed that nonsense because the jobbers who have their tentacles everywhere would have already priced in/lowered prices ahead of any bad news. You avidly read the wk/end City pages praying your stock did not feature and if so not in an unfavourable light.

Rarely do those who consider that mantra actually sell 'eyz' stock ahead of the wk/end hoping to scare holders into panic moves so as to pick up stock cheaper on Monday. That's just not going to happen imo.

I cannot see that working here for a few reasons. a) most holders are dedicated longtermers.( that's a guess). b) believe the stock is under valued ( that's another guess). c) value will out (i've yet to see it) & d) CPO prices will increase (that's another guess from the necromancers) whom I do not subscribe to. So chances are you will ignore such strictures and stay pat.

If I haven't put you off from investing in the Lse casino, so be it, i wish you well and if you fancy a flutter pre close on the wheel of fortune evade the zeros at all costs.

Palm hits low for the day $543.9 range ($543-549)
currently 6.5% down over 1 year.
With CPO prices set to cont in a tight range increases may take longer than forecast to hit $580+
much as S.Arabia needing oil at $70-$80 just to balance it's books, it's stubbornly staying below $65 on over production and slowing global demand.
There's a lesson there for palm. Record production at low prices is not good economic practice. Some masterly inactivity is required in the off peak season for palm oil. Granted some companies are forced into over producing due to balance sheet worries, paying bills and estate upkeep. Kinda like where REA are now.

Like OPEC who agree to cut production and do the opposite, the Assoc of oil palm countries talk the talk but rarely walk the walk!

In a note from CGS-CIMB research it has maintained its ' Neutral' rating on the Agribuisiness Sector.
It said Malaysia's palm oil stocks likely grew by 14%
m-o-m to 2.56mt end Sept
due to higher output and a slump in exports.
It said rising inventory, weak exports coupled with slower growth will cap upside in near term CPO prices.
That makes the Indonesia decision to use more palm domestically and more effectively as a sensible strategy because at these low prices immature palm at prices sub $525 are barely break even at the gate. Domestic use will take up the slack and clear expensive inventory as other uses are found for palm oil.

The Indonesian Govt wants to process more or its palm oil output domestically. Cutting export shipments to India and China in the main just as demand is expected to pick up. This would be very bullish for prices.

Jokowi said in a Bloomberg interview " we want CPO to become processed goods, jet fuel, cosmetics, soap, we want to build a processed downstream industry not just raw content. We want added value from palm oil"

That is someway off atm upping B20 to B30 is the first step then onwards to B100 which is all part of his plan to get more out of its vast natural resources.
For instance he has brought forward to Jan 2020 a ban on exports of nickel ore by 2 years which would remove k/tons from circulation and deepen the global deficit.
Will Jokowi go ahead with his plan to restrict palm oil exports? The mrkts think not for the moment as crude prices hover sub $550.

Yesterday was the first UP day (Q4) for stocks despite falling over 300 early morning on weak services sector news the Dow pulled upwards thereafter on bottom fishing and short closing.
The Services sector which accounts for 60% of the economy has been very resilient in the face of the tariff war. The PMI index at 52 down from 56 in August (a no over 50 signals growth) grew at its slowest rate since 2016.

By close the Dow managed a 122 points gain (26201) the 500 put on 23 (2911) and tech heavy Nsdq rose 87 (7872). Hopes of another rate cut of 0.25 basis boosted sentiment and is priced as an 88% certainty.

Oils had a better day WTI futures rose 12c to $52.64 but were on track for a 6% weekly loss (Brent -7%). Concerns over global demand and news that S.Arabia had recovered from the drone attack and restored output to normal levels dampened the mood.

Nothing doing in Asia, the Nikkei is flat on a wait and see basis other Pan Pacifics are all slightly down though Indonesia and Aus are in the black.
The US non farm pay rolls report due on Friday will be the next guidance for global mrkts.

Oil $ 57.99. Gold $ 1515.
Palm $548. $ 1.233. €1.124. FF +47. DF +10.

Morning all.

Ftse tumbling again (-70) sentiment is awful. The US 25% duty on a comprehensive list of EU products inc cheese, butter and many others has prompted the sell off this morning.

Airbus/Boeing was the elephant in the room but the all round impact is going to be very damaging in the wider mrkt because it will enable US farmers to switch from EU produce to others boosting Trumps standing among the farming community badly hit by tariffs on soybean. At lunch European bourses were all up. Go figure.
On the company front there was more gloom on the toxic High St asTed Baker reported a £23m H1 loss. Shares off 33% to 617. Will Next be the last company standing? PS. I swerved them at 10p in the eighties!

I might add the EU should pay us a £bn a month to stay in given the state of the Eurozone economy! Comments like... we need them more than they need us....is tosh! As long as Ireland dont veto Boris's plan the EU may just say "okay, enuffs enuff!"
A long shot but they do win an occasional photo finish.

According to Morningstar
iis own 103.71% of the issued stock excluding the Pru. If you add in the Pru c.20% holding it busts the pot. Perhaps these nos are based on the 40.5m not the new 43,950,529 issued.
If not an ii(s) has dropped off the register. Either way the FF is tiny, hence the wide spread and limited dealing size which deters pis not that the board are worried about that.
Once upon a time....a long time ago companies wanted a wide spread of iis and pis on their register. Mind you that was in the days pis held on to their shares for more than a few days. Those days are long gone. Nowdays companies seek iis who provide the capital, rarely say boo to a goose, don't rock the boat and rubber stamp all bod's decisions.

Contrast the optimistic 'we can do' speech of the PM with the negative grovelling pessimism of comrade Corbin.
The PM believes in Britain, believes in the people, believes we can succeed and believes the future is bright.
Comrade's view is quite the opposite. No vision, no hope, vassalage to the EU,
higher spending financed by higher taxes borrowings and nationalizing everything in sight.
He has said Labour will vote against the Boris deal, no change there but others may be swinging behind the deal and assuming the EU do not want to thwart the will of the British people, a deal can be brought back to Parliament leaving Comrade isolated among his Trotsky momentum mates.

Morning Herbieridesaga, I recognise the 'n de plume' from another board can't quite recall where? Yup, you sum up the mrkts succinctly,...wonderful for traders as long as your on the right side!
I think I've been a bear of mrkts for the last two years at least, shows you wtfdik! Luckily I have been pretty potless so have stayed away from instruments of mass destruction (WB) who I read is now touting Bitcoin as an investment! Has the Sage of Omaha lost his marbles? Good God I can't bloody believe it!

Minutes after the bell US stocks headed south the Dow, 500 & Nsdq all off 1% point and at 5.00pm UK time the Dow was down nearly 500 points.
US mrkts needed no encouragement from London where shares tanked across the board the 100 and All Share both 3% lower. We have our own problems.

In the US the jobs report indicated 135,000 jobs were added slightly lower than the 145,000 forecast but well above the 100k feared which would have been a signal to dump stocks wholesale and buy bonds especially after the poor Aug nos (125,000).
Many are praying that the Fed's cheap money will save the day in the face of weak global growth and that the economy will weather the storms.

With US manufacturing in recession, business confidence sorely tested, Trumps impeachment threat (he's obviously a wrong'un) and a China trade deal off into the stratosphere, a jobs report sub 100,000 would have severely spooked investors with talk of another 1000 fall on the Dow.
This was last seen on 5th, Feb 2018 when the Dow slumped 1175 points and 2 days later tanking another 1032 taking the Dow to (23860).
Just 6 wks later the Dow had recovered those losses. The Dow drifted sideways during the afternoon closing down 494 (26079) & the 500 off 53 (2888). Crude gained 13c to $52.77.

With China & S.Korea closed the Nikkei bore the brunt of selling down 444
HK off 128, Aus down 2% and all other Pan Pacifics are lower. US losses on the jobs report, Trump adding 25% extra duties ($7.5bn) on European imports over the Airbus/Boeing spat which the WTO ruled in favour of Airbus we're all negatives for mrkts. China will resume trade talks this month for the 13th session.

Oil $ 57.65. Gold $ 1505.
Palm $547. $ 1.229.
€ 1.122. FF -24. DF +5
Morning all.