Member Info for JohnLewis79

Late jump in CPO price up c.$10
to $556.70 on days range of $545- $558.

Top 4 major holders in REA.

* RM Robinow 13.022m
* Emba Holdn 13.022m
* Prudential H 8.754 m
* M & G Funds 6.043m
* Directors c.550k

Total 41.391m / 43.951m
Bal. 2.561m

Other iis and pis have the rest which is not a lot (c.6% of issued). Probably not 100% accurate but as near damn it.

..... as readers know I dismiss purchases by NEDs of less than £100,000 as mere refunds of excess fees. But the Robinow family have dived into (REA) as to c.£2,000,000 shares at 145. They know what they are doing and i therefore think its reasonable to expect the sp to go markedly higher......

Bio v traditional fossil fuel sources both have their advantages and disadvantages. First the plusses.

* bio costs have been falling and have potential to be cheaper than fossil as demand increases and supply dwindles for fossil.

* oil is a limited resource. Bio can be manufactured from a wide range of materials, manure, crop waste & especially palm which is a perennial crop, thus a step change in the recycling process.

* renewability. It takes a long time for fossil to be produced. Bio is easily renewable.

* Bio can be produced locally thus decreasing dependency on foreign energy and saving money.

* can employ thousands of workers creating new jobs in rural areas.

* lower carbon emissions and toxins making bio a safer alternative to preserve air quality and lower pollution.

The -'s

* lower energy output
* cost to produce / plants and distribution.
* staple foods could rise in price as land is used for more palm.
* excessive water usage putting a strain on regional water demand.

Conclusion:

Bio is not a silver bullet however bio remains a reliable alternative energy source and with more R&D
it is possible to overcome the disadvantages in the years ahead.

On the subject of planes and fuel as an example its estimated that at anytime mid flight there are from 8000 to 20000 planes flying from low to high season usage.
A plane like the 747 typically uses 1 gallon every second so on a 10 hour flight will consume 36,000 galllons. A much better mpg (100) than a motor car (25mpg).
Total fuel consumption of commercial airlines is est
to hit 97bn gallons in 2019 (20bn in the US alone) an increase of 5% generating c.$865bn in revenues.

CO2 emissions from passenger & freight totalled 918mt or c.2.5% of global emissions (81% passenger). The industry also aims to reduce emissions by using sustainable aviation fuels.
To date more than 170,000 commercial flights have already successfully flown on bio blends.
Several major US airlines
have made long term biofuel purchase agreements. In 2018 bio was est at 0.1% of US jet fuel use. With policy support IATA has set an aspirational target of 1Bn passenger flights fuelled by bio by 2025.
This will inevitably lead to more palm production which at current price is not taking into consideration the huge increase forecast for Palm-Bio jet fuel.

As Indonesia brace for the EU total phase out of palm biofuel, (not incidentally a total ban on palm oil for other uses), palm will no longer be considered a 'renewable fuel.
However Indonesia will target other mrkts mainly China and India along with increasing domestic consumption of biofuel.
The Govt aims to increase the content of palm to 30% by early 2020, 50% by end 2020 and 100% by 2023 one of the most ambitious transition programmes ever.
They also aim to produce more for aviation fuel tapping demand from travellers, frequent flyers much in the news of late for lower flight carbon footprints.
The drawback is that world demand will increase to c.57mt annually leading to more clearing of land to satisfy demand, so the race is on to produce more from the current acreage by better husbandry and estate practices.

The UN's International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) has proposed increasing the use of biofuel for passenger planes aiming for half of jet fuel to come from Bio by 2050.

The Nikkei was in 'catch up' mood jumping c.2% (+393) as traders returned to work, HK & SH were both slightly lower with other Pan Pacifics as doubts on trade talks emerged when Chinese officials wanted more talks on 'phase one' deal.
A comprehensive trade agreement will come in 3 parts.
Earlier US mrkts were flat all day the Dow slipping 29, th S&P off 4 awaiting Q3 nos from the Banks. JPM, Goldman, Citi, Morgan S, BOA and Wells Fargo all due this week. Banks have been among the better sector performers positive in Q1(+5%) & Q2 (+2%) but analysts are expecting c.3% declines for Q3.
Netflix ($287) will be among the high points when they report on Wed post close. Now facing stiff competition from Apple and Walt Disney streaming services undercutting Nflix $11 charge. Last time round Nflix lost subscribers and the stock is down from $386 high this year. Analysts are undecided whether Nflix have added subs in Q3.

Oil $ 58.89. Gold $ 1498.
Palm $545. $ 1.262. €1.144. IDR 14145. FF+11
DF +55.
Morning all.

Expect you may have seen the cost of Labour's proposed re-nationalisation of water, electricity, rail and the Royal Mail to name a few which totalled c.£200bn.

What a terrific message to send overseas investors hoping to invest here post Brexit.

Share prices of palm stocks at start of the wk.

Anglo 440
Dekel 1.90
EPA 1.00
MPE 621
REA 164

See little change in prices outside of Co specific news and forecasts for CPO prices in 2020 little above current. In fact Malaysia sees palm oil output prices at an average c.2100 ringgit ($501) through 2020 below last year's av 2300 ringitt.
Much will depend on biodiesel demand and the % of oil Palm used, currently BD10/100 in Malaysia aiming for BD 20/100 next year. Malaysia is also capping any increase in palm acreage to 6.5mha to 2023
while stock piles increase and low prices for veg oils
are obtained.

A partial trade deal and Intel property protections agreed got Far Eastern mrkts off to a bright start. China also agreed to purchase US agri products, though the bigger issues are yet to be settled. Extra tariff hikes have been put on hold pro tem.
Tokyo is closed today but the Hang Seng is up 270 & China adding 41, both over 1% at mid session benefiting from global rises in stock mrkts on Friday.

Oil $ 60.25. Gold $ 1491.
Palm $546. $1.261. €1.143
FF +8. DF +57.

Morning all.

India the world's bigest importer of palm oil is considering restricting imports of palm oil from Malaysia after PM Mohamad criticised India for invading and occupying Kashmir.

Currently India imports 3.9mt of oil from Malaysia
and Indonesia will take up any slack in lost imports as it wishes to sell more edible palm in exchange for buying sugar.
The Dec contract on the BMD Exch fell 0.9% to $522 on the news.

It was the week of deals as a chink of light was seen on US/China & UK/EU talks. The US mrkt stopped a 3 wk slide, Bonds turned positive and global tensions on trade growth eased.
There were headwinds, Turkey and HK cont to sour invstrs mood and Q3
nos will be coming through next wk expected to be mixed to flat.

London mrkts finished with a flourish on Fri standing out was a 806 rise (4%) on the 250, positive noises coming out of Ireland & the EU bouyed sentiment which also sent the GBP 2.5% (1.268) higher on the wk the € 2% (1.149) better.

On wk.

Ftse +92
All +59
250 +562
AIM +6

DJ +243
SP +18
NS +75

TK +389
HK +447
SH +7

MSC1 521 (+6)

Oil +$2.50
Gold -$21
Palm + $3.

Morning all.

Whatever you make of buybacks MPE has not halted the slide in it's share price (not that it was their main intention).
On the 10th Cctober MPE paid 678 for stock and just yesterday 634 so adding to a losing position if you were trading the shares.
I expect these are 'housed' in Treasury. To date MPE buybacks are not in lieu of dividends as MPE pays a dividend though on less stock.
Usually share repurchases are a plus, for instance another buyer in the mrkt. Also they make sense if bought below intrinsic value. So the remaining stock will also benefit.
Investors and Co boards have to question whether buybacks are value enhancing- destroying which is 100% price dependent, what is smart at one price is stupid at another.
Buybacks should never take place willy nilly even if the stock is under valued if the business needs to expand its operations and secondly if an acquisition offers greater value than the Co stock.
REA might have considered repurchases at one time but debt has always been a constraint
and now the cancelling of dividends rules that out 100%. Definitely for the best.

The Indonesian Govt has found that c.19% of palm estates are unlicensed and operating illegally in forest areas. That's c.3.1mha.
In time the Govt will rescind permits for non compliers of ISPO standards and illegal planting will be left and returned to the natural habitat. This follows a report from the Govt auditor that c.80% of the countries palm estates broke State regulations of one sort or another.

Indonesia has halted applications for 1.6mha of new palm for at least the next 3 years.

For sure rugs. St Clair has only 29,377 shares at last count but wouldn't swear to the accuracy of his holding being updates on holdings etc., are notoriously inaccurate.

Trade news boosted US stocks all 3 major indexes closing ahead on the session, Dow up 151, the S&P 19 and Nsdq gained 47. WTI $53.82 (-4c).

Alls well in Asia as reports on the trade talks look to be progressing towards a deal or at least delaying the imminent tariff hike.
Trump told reporters "we're doing very well" and US investors took the hint piling back into stocks. This improving sentiment carried over into Asia this morning, the Nikkei is up 237, HK jumped 563 and China after a steep opening fall clawed back losses now up 14. All other Pan Pacifics followed the upward trend.

The nos: Oil $ 59.60
Gold $1498. Palm $545.
$ 1.245. € 1.131. FF -31
DF +137.

Even little ok UK had some good news on Brexit, GDP the £ having its best day for months and who'd a believed it some excellent news from the High St.
Thomas Cook 555 stores saved and HMV under Canadian management looking to expand their High St presence.

Always a good sign when a Director buys the Co stock see RNS.

Reports that China is poised to de-escalate the trade spat bouyed US mrkts on Wed despite some wild swings on the futures Exch. The Dow ended up 182 (26346) the 500 gained 26 (2919) & the Nsdq up 80 (7904).
WTI fell 11c to $52.54.

Modestly better in Asia on trade updates and that the US Gov't is aiming to delay the next round of tariffs increases due next wk and is intending to re-issue licenses to US companies to do business with Huawei among others.
Late on the Nikkei is up 56 Hang Seng up 70 and SHCOMP adding 8. Other Pan Pacifics were mixed on little direction.

Oil $58.27. Gold $ 1513.
Palm $549. $ 1.223.
€ 1.113. FF +9. DF -15.
Morning all.

Expected from the MPOB due Oct 10th.

? Sept stocks seen rising 12% to 2.52mt.
? Output seen 5% higher at 1.91mt.
? Exports seen down 19% to 1.40mt.
The mrkt is cautious ahead of the official data being released but export demand in early Oct has been good. The BMD Exch contract for Dec delivery was up 0.5% at 2160 ringgit.

Asia is down in morning trading on back of losses on the Street over night the Dow off 314, S&P down 46 mostly on trade talks gloom and nervousness of recession talk among investors. Oct to date the Dow has dropped 753 the S&P -84.

In Asia mrkts opened lower in morning trade on news the US had blacklisted 28 Chinese companies due to alleged role in human rights violations against the Muslim minority.
Adding to the gloom was news Trump could be capping US investment in Chinese companies setting a pessimistic tone to talks on Thursday. The war of words cont by China saying the US should stop interfering in their internal affairs. Heading towards close the Nikkei down 138, Hang Seng off 176 and China down 4.

Oil $ 58.02. Gold $ 1511.
Palm $548. $ 1.222.
€ 1.111. FF u/c. DF +65.

Morning all.