Member Info for JohnLewis79

CPO prices are headed just on way backed by lower production and expectations of higher biofuel consumption locally and abroad as MAL goes B20 and INDO B30 next year.
Implementation of the biofuel mandate will increase consumption of palm oil by up to 1.3mt and 10mt per year in Malaysia and Indonesia respectively.
Meanwhile the two countries will challenge a European law to limit palm oil for biofuel usage.

CPO futures hit a 16 month high on the BME at RM 2359 a ton on news that Malaysian exports to China surged 42% to 165kt
for the first 20 days of Oct.

China has waived retaliatory tariffs on 10mt of US beans which boosted soy prices on the Chicago M EX. Further deliveries to China are expected in 2020 when biofuel is ramped up.

US stocks moved higher on early deals Wed morning despite poor nos from CAT profits down $240m but shares u/c and Boeing who missed earnings and made fewer new plane deliveries
saw their shares gain $1.46 to $341 early on (closed u/c).
Boeing execs have been accused of putting profits before safety. A case in point when out-sourcing the M-CAS software system to Indian engineers on $10 an hour instead of Boeing in house software developers at $100 an hour. Boeing said the 737 Max Jet will be back in service by Y/E.

Others in the limelight were Texas off c.6% poor rev guidance and Nike down 3.4% propped up the laggards.
However of the 98 S&P stocks reporting Q3 nos to date some 83% have exceeded forecasts.
By the close the Dow was ahead 46, the 500 up 8 & the techs gained 16, all off lows late on.

No major developments in Asia so local factors drove mrkts, the Nikkei up 133, HK adding 109 & SH off 10
awaiting ECB news.

The nos: Oil $ 60.91.
Gold $ 1496. Palm $562.
$ 1.291. € 1.160. FF -2.
DF +9.
Morning all.

Seems the demerger of the Prudential and M&G in change of control from the Pru to M&G plc has spooked some investors into some small lot selling totalling 13337 at prices from 158.5 -164.

CPO is having a good month up from $548 end Sept to $565 a 3.3% gain mtd tracked by REA sp (+3.9%) same timeframe.

Boris wins one and...loses one to roars of approval
from the anti Brexit opposition who voted to delay the process of the withdrawal bill, agreed upon just minutes earlier.
Nothing new there from the avowed anti Brexit MPs.

The ftse which closed up 49 (7212) and is up 7% ytd has been remarkably resilient in the face of so much uncertainty buoyed by the recent £ performance v the $ (4% up 1 month) & € (2.5% up 1 month).
London now called just 5 down at kick off.

US stocks fell away in the afternoon session the Dow closing off 40 (26788) after 26947 weighed down by McDonald's (-5%) & Travellers (-8%) both big board stocks failing to meet invstrs expectations.
Combined they took 125 off the 30 while P&G and United Tech both pleasing the mrkt put on 40.
Holders of Boeing saw a $12 bounce on news that the commercial-airplanes chief McAllister is quitting
over the Max Jet disaster.

Other Co news saw Biogen stun the mrkt with news that it's Alzheimer's drug whose trials just a month or so ago had proved futile is ready for the FDA approvals process! Shares rocketed up 40% pre mrkt and 26% in the session to close up $58 at $282.
Netflix is to sell $2bn of junk bonds filling its war chest in face of strong streaming services competition from Apple, Walt Disney etc..and Harley Davidson jumped 7% on a sales & profit out-performance.

Down across Asia & the Pan Pacifics in morning trade mostly on geo political issues. However HK led the fallers off 251 on news that China might replace Carrie Lam the HK Govt head.
In TK (flat) the news that giant Softbank...(it's not a bank) has offered a $5bn lifeline to WeWork which upon completion will see SB owning 80% of WW.

The nos: Oil $ 59.42.
Gold $1493. Palm $565.
$ 1.286. € 1.156. FF -10.
DF -40.

Morning all.

Dow ended the day up 57 (26828) though hindered by Boeing slumping $36 to $329 a 2 month low which knocked 70 off the Dow. Boeing had hit a '19 high of $390 in Aug.
Reports that the Co may have misled the Fed Aviation Authority as to the safety of the 737 Max jet caused the sell off.

On the trade front, Liu He VP China said the spade work had been done to achieve a comprehensive trade deal and substantial progress had been made on phase one, a signed agreement expected in Nov.

In the Far East mrkts are flat to up with little news to react to, the Nikkei adding 36, HK up 40 & SH off 3.

The nos: Oil $ 58.95.
Gold $1487. Palm $557.
$ 1.298. € 1.164.
IDR 14042. FF +1. DF +48.

Morning all.

An okay start to wk 43, TK & HK up 1/3 of 1%, SH flat.
Japan reported a 5% slide in exports to SE Asian countries resulting in a $1bn deficit from a year earlier, while imports slipped 1.5%.

The nos: Oil $ 59.22.
Gold $1493. Palm $ 559.
$ 1.290. € 1.156. FF +5
DF +64.

Morning all.

With REA controlled by the Robinow family take over hopes are unlikely imo. Of course they could be persuaded should the 'price be right.'
At current that's out of the question, so they are in no hurry to sell if ever? The nav is upwards of c.460 last I looked and that's a distance away and time is on their side and I very much doubt the sp will ever reach NAV. When does it ever in take over situations? Last one I accepted was 40% below.
Tbh I think NAV is a crock of ***t given the scope for.....?

Any bid for REA will be pitched at no more than 240-270 a non starter of course. Holding the non div paying stock on the ords let alone the prefs won't be every pis choice for the long term given that rarely extends beyond a month or so. Imo dividends are a thing of the past for most pis of limited means.

I'm not worried about income, far preferring capital appreciation as long as you accept the risks. I think they are minimal going forward and assess the risk/reward ratio to be in favour of the long term holder as long as that ****h Anna Soubry keeps her nose out, heh heh heh...
Apologies, slipped off message so please ignore but leavers will understand my frustration.

The 'remainer' rotten parliament won again forcing the PM to write to Tusk seeking an extension which they may or may not accede and will be in no rush to extend a helping hand. The PM has duly obliged and is now accused of acting like a sulking schoolboy for writing a second letter explain how damaging a further delay would be. If that's sulking...so bloody be it.

The DUP once happy bed 'fellows' are now enemies aligning with arch remainers the Undem schoolgirl lot, Corbinistas & the fat boy.
This rotten parliament cannot even vote on the deal preferring to dither and delay, seek amendments and tie the PMs hand to the surrender bill.
Should a vote occur on Mon or Tue and gets passed it will be hamstrung by amendment after amendment designed to delay the passing of the withdrawal agreement into law.

The last thing the opposition want is a deal, any deal whatsoever. They do not want Brexit. This nonsense about not trusting the PM is a complete 'red herring'. They do not trust the people, they wish for another Referendum hoping to overturn the first one and there is no guarantee of that happening. Currently the odds of a 2nd Ref before 2020 are 9/1 (No 1/33). They do not want an election fearing being wiped out so low in the polls are the riven Corbinista rabble.

The Tories are 1/3 to win the most seats in the next election which will be fought 100% on Brexit (assuming we leave by Oct 31st).
Boris backing the people, Corbin against the people.

Morning all.

Closing prices for London palm stocks:

Anglo 439 (-1)
DKL 1.95 (+0.5)
EPA 1.075 (+0.75)
MPE
654 (+33)
REA 166 (+2)

Palm $559 (+$3.2)
IDR 14144 (u/c)

Ftse 7151 (-96)
All 3957 (-35)
Dow 26790 (-27)
500 2986 (+16)
TK 22493 (+684)
SH 2938 (+26)

Oil $59.59 (-$1.08)
Gold $ 1494 (+$7)

Go Eng, Ire & Wales!

Well, Boris gone and done it against all odds I might add. What took the supply teacher nigh on 3 years Boris cracked it in a couple of months.
Now all he has to do is convince parliament. With the Corbinistas, the Undem schoolgirl, fat boy and the DUP all likely to vote against, the maths hardly favour Boris.
Saturday will be the day of destiny and if voted down the public will see that as a remainer Parliament giving the V sign to the electorate. Various polls conducted yesterday showed overwhelmingly that the people are in favour of the deal and expect parliament to act in the country's interest.

The odds for us to leave the EU by 31st Oct '19 are:
No 11/18
Yes 11/8

The Commons to vote through the withdrawal agreement:
Yes 13/18
No 1/1

Oil $59.57. Gold $1495.
Palm $554. $ 1.284. € 1.154.
FF -23. DF -28.
REA vol to date 15,145 on 6 bargains.

No movement outside of moving the spread a point or so to little effect when your paying 178. Renember despite the small free float the barrow boys can always satisfy demand, buy or sell and currently they are quite happy to keep trades in very small range/volumes wishing neither to load up or sell or divulge their position on the stock...if they even have one? I guess we must be thankful they quote a price because they sure won't get rich dealing in r.e.a.......more a public service.

Back on line, seems the 3 Network crashed overnight.
A bit more interest this morning
a 10,000 buy at 168 looks a good price as a long term hold given bio etc... i have no evidence for my assumptions but I believe 5 years down the line sub 200 will be but a distant memory. Should I live that long I will still be on the register.

In an effort to achieve a sustainable palm oil industry it requires companies in the supply chain to take action by only buying oil from RSPO
certified growers. Of the global output of palm oil only 20% was RSPO certified.
Buying oil outside undermines efforts to reward those growers who adopt 'green' estate practice. Last year c.50%
of the 13.5mt of 'green' oil which costs more to produce was sold at a premium to conventional oil.
We are not seeing demand for 'green' oil said the MD of Sime Darby where typically planters rec'd a premium of $50 a tonne over conventional back in 2014 but now down to as low as $10-30 which hardly covers costs of $12 a tonne ex expenses.

To force the issue the RSPO will for the first time make it mandatory for buyers to increase their purchases of 'green' by 15% per annum or face fines and possible suspension.

Q3 nos from the Banks still please the mrkt. BOA & Bank of NY both beating expectations. In other co news GM reached a settlement with strikers, United Airlines raised F/Y
guidance but surprisingly retail sales slipped in Sept.

Netflix gained $2 to $286 on adding 6.8m subscribers much as forecast. At close the Dow was off 22.(27001) the 500 lost 6 (2990) and Nsdq fell 25 (8124). WT1 slipped 9c to $52.88.

In Asia stocks are mixed the Nikkei up 20, China u/c
but Hong Kong put on 187 on back of property stocks surging following news that the Govt plans to ease the chronic housing shortage.

Oil $ 58.93. Gold $ 1491.
Palm $556. $ 1.282.
€ 1.157. FF -3. DF -55.

Morning all.

Edible oil imports from Malaysia of veg oil (edible and non) declined 13% to 13mt (14.9mt) in Sept as India sourced more palm oil from Indonesia.
The Indian Govt slapped a 5% safeguard tax on imports from Malaysia widening the spread between refined and crude to 10%. Indian refiners have ceased purchases of Malaysian palm oil for shipment in Nov & Dec pending clarification from the Govt.
Traditionally Malaysia corners the mrkt in refined while Indonesia dominates the crude which currently they sell at a discount to Malaysia.
If India switch exclusively to Indonesia that will narrow or even be wiped out. Watch this space.

Mixed in Asia on back of US Q3 nos which pleased investors along with the partial trade deal not yet signed and Brexit news bouying sentiment somewhat. The Nikkei gaining 230, Hang Seng flat and SHCOMP down 8 on news of the US Senate passing 3 pro HK democracy bills which angered the Chinese Govt who warned the US not to meddle in their internal affairs. China is still the best Asian performer ytd gaining 16%.

A better day on US mrkts the sky has not fallen in and consumers are still spending as Q3 season got underway. Banks & Healthcare led sector gsins. JPM up 2% but Citigroup missed on revenues and WF on poor nos, both off 0.5% with Goldman slumping 3% for missing top and bottom line nos.
Gaining were United Health up 6%, J&J up 3% both ahead of expectations. All in all investors ended the day pleasantly surprised.
The Dow closed up 237 (27025) the 500 up 30 (2996) & the techs added 100 (8149).

The nos: Oil $ 58.91.
Gold $1488. Palm $ 554.
$ 1.275. € 1.156. FF -26
DF -41.
Morning all.