Member Info for JohnLewis79

Only one palm stock going anywhere, Anglo up 33 today the rest nowhere...

CPO prices above $600 augur well for Q4 - Q1 &2 revs if maintained.
Last year REA selling in the local mrkt realised an av $472 ($572) on 2018 sales (fob) of cpo and $1007 ($1134) cpko.

Those nos one would expect to have materially increased for H2 and 2020 but not enough to post profits for this year . Next year we could break even and hopefully the board will have decided to recommence being fully planted out by 2025.

Records galore on US mrkts, the Dow, S&P and Nsdq all closed at historic highs and 10 of the 30 rose more than 1% led by Chevron up 3%. Energy, financials and industrials led the sector gains and Dow futures are pointing up for today.
McDonald's fell $5 to $158
after the CEO quit for having an inappropriate relationship with an employee and Under Armour tanked 14% after it confirmed an accounting probe was under way. Morgan Stanley dampened invstrs enthusiasim saying returns from bonds and stocks will be just 4% over the next 10 years down from the 500 returning c.14% this last 10years. Effectively calling the 10 year old bull over and out.

In Asia stocks followed US highs, the Nikkei catching up after Monday's holiday is 423 ahead, HK up 144 and SH gaining 23. Trade news and talk of the removal of $122bn of tariffs encouraged invstrs to equities. All Pan Pacifics were ahead.

The nos: Oil $ 62.30.
Gold $1506. Palm $609.
$ 1.288. € 1.157. FF +39.
DF +45.

Morning all.

Just cleared $600 last seen end 2017.

As the earnings season closes its worth noting how US mrkts have performed this year against the background of trade wars, global growth easing and rates at all time lows. Q3 nos have exceeded expectations with over 70% of the S&P 500 beating Walls estimates and big stocks like Apple, Msoft, Fbk, Alphabet & Amazon are up 64% 43% 48% 23% & 19%
ytd.
The Fed did as Trump wanted and cut rates for the 3rd time. Economic data has been reasonable (US GDP & non farmroll
jobs) consumer spending
and inflation have defied the gloomsters and Wall St bears.
The Dow is up 17% and the 500 an even better 22%. But remember in 2018 US mrkts tumbled between 4% & 12%, UK between (13% & 18%) and commentary was one of gloom, bear mrkts, rate rises and the decade long bull run dead in the water

In 2018 invstrs to a man dumped FAANG stocks.
Oil bulls were nowhere to be seen fearing a supply glut prices tumbled to $60 from a high of $86.
The Bitcoin bubble burst hitting $20,000 was last seen at $4000 in Dec'18 and of course Brexit though little talk of US/China trade war.
The Fed had to act on rates forced in part by Trump and falling equity mrkts as the last rate rise was seen as a policy error.
The Fed duly changed course and the bulls lived to fight another year.

Asia kicked off wk 45 with solid gains in China and HK, Tokyo is closed today.
Record busting performance from the US on Friday bouyed investor sentiment and comments from Trade Secretary Ross
that phase-one deal will be agreed shortly and licenses to US companies to trade with Huawei will be issued was taken as positives for equities.

The 16 ASEAN countries also agreed to maintain stability and committed to sign a free trade deals next year.
Towards the close HK is up 343, Shanghai (1) adding 20, other Pan Pacifics are also ahead accept Indonesia off 0.20%.

The nos: Oil $ 61.33.
Gold $1513. Palm $597.
$ 1.293. € 1.158. FF +33
DF +40.

Morning all.

Not the team that steam-'rollered' NZ which sadly turned out to be Englands World Cup Final. Nevertheless a sterling effort in reaching the final as the best of the Northern hemisphere teams. The less said about Wales the better.... but to be fair carrying too many injuries did for us.

PS a near miss for your 4 timer bunks..i was cheering you on....yea right!

The editor of World Oil expects palm oil stocks to fall by 2-3mt in the next 12 months from current 14.7mt.
For Indonesia to fully develop B30 would require an extra 2.6mt pushing up bio demand to 8.5mt next year creating a tight mrkt and make it very difficult for Indonesia to raise exports to the world.
He raised his outlook for the Indonesia palm price to an average $600 in Jan.
Also Bio mandate is increasing in Malaysia (B10 to 20) & Thailand further driving overall demand.

Industry analysts revised up their price outlook after the palm mrkt started rallying when Indonesia released its bio allocation decree indicating 9.6mkl of bio consumption saying sentiment has been 'red hot'. They also predict Malaysian CPO will hit $650pt and est European CPO will climb to $700 in Q1 and then surge to $750 in Q2 as global growth in palm will be overtaken by growth in demand.

The cpo price adjustments upward happened because the outlook for output is much less upbeat than one might have thought from mature acreage planted in the high price years.

All of the above bode well for palm shares in general
perhaps more so for the indebted companies thus reducing onerous interest charges and cost savings.

I'm no expert on equities, commodities or currencies as I'm sure you have gathered but I try to keep abreast of the latest trends.
Having invested in REA a commodity stock whoe's sp has been cratered by the crash in CPO prices, I'm banking on now is the time to be invested here in palm as prices have crashed on the highs of a couple of years ago and depression abounds. I think my timing is spot on.

Though not quite a 'blood on the streets' scenario its not far off. I don't check charts but CPO looks to be on an up trend while estate production is falling just as demand is going up which could herald a developing bull mrkt. The odds favour that imo and if you seek appreciation here is the place to be.

Remember palm oil companies generally speaking have fixed costs so revs travel straight to the bottom line.
Some people say don't invest in commodities until rising demand is seen. I disagree. I think waiting now will cost invstrs money as demand for palm oil is ongoing given India, China, biofuels & other uses so why wait?

You have to believe that this will translate into higher company values in the longish run. I believe it will, that's why I'm here.

Ok, not a lot but will keep me in beer next wk..

Im still counting...

I actually made money on the game...I gave Eng -20 with the draw and was knocked over in the rush. As they say money has no allegiance.

Bullish US jobs nos propelled the 500 and Nsdq to closing records the DJ c. 30 shy of an all time high. Fed Reserve Chair said " the economy is very resilient the consumer has never been in better shape" as evidenced by the Labour mrkt added 128,000 jobs (higher than expected consensus 70,000- 90,000) and continuing excellent earnings reports bouyed stocks.
Exxon bested forecasts shares up 3% to c.$70, Chevron nos on point (WTI up 3% to $56.98, Google buying Fitbit in a $2.1bn deal and Apple continues its strong run post 3Q nos gaining $7 to a record high $256.

Analysts are pencilling in a strong run up to the New Year for US equities.

.....my gut feeling is to bail on REA as the weak fundamentals (a couple of posts ago)....
and then I remembered when did fundamentals ever mean a bloody thing?

Here's an example a stock I was recently in and left precisely due to the above will produce c.$160m of fcf this year and has net cash of $115m, a 11p div & bumper profits valued at paltry £550m.
At one time when this company barely turned a coin, well in comparison to the cash machine it has now become it was valued at $2.7bn. I rode the stock down from 650 to 200ish and after 5 frustrating years bailed out losing a bunch of cash. It is barely above the latter fig now.

So now I need to find a stock with poor fundamentals, losing money but rises in value.
I think I have found one in REA, oh dear wish I hadn't said that....

I realise i need to develop a different outlook. I must stop worrying about ROCE, p/e, dividend yield, eps and 'book' to this that and t'other as these may or may not take care of themselves and whatever I think, am most likely to be wrong as they will be interpreted a hundred diff ways so best go with the flow, ride the share price, let the mrkt do the work for me!
I've worried enough about the intransigency of the mrkt to last a lifetime and mrkt obstinacy can outlast my cash resources. No more.
..........Que Sera Sera...........

Morning all. C'mon England world champs elect!

Anglo was the star of the show today zipping up 30 to 490 and a 54 gain on the week. MPE up 25 at one stage fell to small lot selling off 12 to 660 on the wk.
The tiddlers were little changed Dekel off 0.05 to 2.10 and EPA flat at 1.05.
REA u/c on 2000 at 172 but gained 7 on the wk, 26,500 traded

Wk 44
The ftse -22 (7302)
All Share -7 (4023)
250 +55 (20159)
Aim u/c (891)

Wk 44
TK +51 (22851)
HK +293 (27101)
SH +6 (2958)

Wk 44.
Brent - 90c to $60.69
Gold +$6 ($1513)
Palm +$17 ($590)
$ + 13c $1.293
€ u/c at €1.159
IDR u/c 14035.

....oops 199 gonna be close..

I'm beginning to think H has CPO bang on at 600 tops in 2020. To date its been lots of hot air as prices slip to trend sideways.
That might be good for pis following the CPO price for investment decisions (how crazy can you get) but they should factor that a very small % of contracts are ever settled....much like the revilled cartel crude oil price "concert party" they seek to make a turn. It's a bloody casino so beware.
If your in profit here snatch your gains before the mrkt does.

Palm Oil boosts MPE up 25 on zero volume. As the leader of palm stocks in London that's to be expected even without a short squeeze. REA to lag behind for all the reasons i have blogged.
My gut feeling is to bail out of REA as the weak fundamentals will come back and bite me on the bum. I just dont have the cohones to bail atm.

....Sods law you will get pipped at the post...

Seeing things 170-2 the jobbers must be flush all of a sudden...