Member Info for JohnLewis79

Far Eastern mrkts start wk46 on the back foot led lower by HK as violence exploded over the wk/end & morning commute. The death of a protestor, pepper spray and tear gas being used has whacked stocks and confidence in the HK economy.

The Hang Seng is off c.3% that's 806 points as the violence enters its 6th month of protests with no end in sight.
China reported consumer inflation data at the highest point in 8 years and the on /off trade deal is at Trumps whim, currently off. All Pan Pacifics are falling. Towards the close the Nikkei is down 60, HK off 790 and SH 46 lower.

The nos:- Oil $61.83.
Gold $1464. Palm $645.
$ 1.279. € 1.160. FF -13
DF -130.
Morning all.

The Global mrkt for palm oil is expected to reach $93bn by 2021 a CAGR growth of 7% (2016-2021) and $148bn by 2026.

Palm Oil is an economically important and versatile veg oil suitable for foods, non foods and biofuel.
It (unrefined red palm oil) is also used in preventing vitamin A deficiency, cancer, brain disease, aging, treating malaria, high blood pressure & cholesterol (many papers to support the above). These benefits rarely get mentioned in the face of the anti palm lobby intent on seeing the demise of the oil. This is highly unlikely.
Improving economic conditions, rising living standards are driving palm oil global growth. Furthermore stringent regs on trans fats in the US & Europe are resulting in a rapid shift in consumption of soybean to palm oil.
Asia Pacific dominate the palm oil mrkt with China the largest consumer of oils and fats followed by India. Europe and the US are seen as low growth on account of sluggish end-use industries and Latin America as the next growth area for palm oil on account of rising pop, cultivation of palm, middle class consumer incomes increasing and a pro veg oil Govt.

The production of palm in Indonesia has seen phenomenal growth from 1964 (164kt) to 41mt in 2018, furthermore it's est that the country will need 51mt by 2025 to meet domestic and global demands fuelled by B30/50. Overall production of palm oil is far more economical and valuable than other veg oils.

Value per hectare is:-

Palm Oil $1135
Rapeseed $690
Soybean $540
Sunflower $330

Palm will produce an average income of $2500 per ha compared to only $250 per ha for rice and soybean mean average c.$125 per acre.
The most by revenue (GPV) is cannabis followed by rice.

Morning all.

bad raps for palm oil re deforestation, RSPO companies and fires, et al in the Times. Tbh, I'm bored ***tless on the subject and am awaiting the headlines in the rags "palm oil causes cancer, dementia and Palace's poor home record. Stop eating butter, sweets, ice cream, biscuits, bread stop buting soap and oh yes stop bloody living! Life would be so much better.

Actually 1.04 daily up but whose counting?

Cpo maintained its 3.6x over the sp this week having been 4.9x a couple of months ago. I'd be hoping at year end for the av to be nearer 3 if not below.
I don't think it's a reliable statistical guide one I adapted from a chart / stats guy (cheers boyo) in an o...lie but the lower the figure the better. I'll keep track of it on a wkly basis so just for my amusement, 3.3x next wk?

Also since I bght REA it has risen 1.2p every trading day to date and on that basis by year end REA should hit c.210....give or take. I think 200 was my target back-aways which would still be well below the 243 '18 close.

Regardless that's a hell of
a turnaround in H2 which few thought possible when the stock headed sub 100.

Walgreen Boots return to the private sector looks a step too far as this will involve the bigest ever buyout at c.$70bn. The timing could not be worse for one its at the top of the mrkt. Second it's last figures were poor a whacking 55% fall in Q4 profits and Wallgreen carries $15bn of debt on its balance sheet.
All these negatives when the credit cycle is tightening and banks are loathe to finance private- equity debt or take on risky corporate loans which according to the BOE are now Leveraged at $3.4 trillion make Wallgreen ($58.67) a massive swerve imo.
In other co news, Boeing off $6 ($351) on a possible one year delay to the 737Max returning to service. Disney up $5 ($138) beat expectations and early indications for Disney+ starting Nov12 are positive and techs and chip makers all gained.

US mrkts have tired of the 'will we, won't we' make a deal with China instead focussing on the economics of the US economy, low inflation, low rates, full employment, deregulation and strong consumer spending. Against this background its difficult to make a case for a recession.
However there are commentators who say invstrs are 'buying dreams'
and living in a fools paradise willing to overlook the basic fundamentals of investment to chase the latest dot.com.tech stock or anything that moves so flush with money they have become. It might be the bears growling so badly mauled these last 10 years, they think their day is nigh and a significant pull back is on the cards.

Anyways all 3 major indexes edged higher for the 3rd straight week of record closes. The Dow put on 6 (27681)
the 500 added 8 (3093) and Nsdq gained 41 (8475) and the R2000 just shy of (1600). Crude put on 37c to $57.44 and the 10yr t/bill yield climbed above 1.9% scaring away the doomsayers.

Have a good wk/end all. Go Palace.....

On London palm stocks, only Anglo (+8) & MPE (+15) made gains today. DKL & REA slipped while EPA was u/c.
CPO was a different story running up $11 today and $41 on the wk to close at $631.
REA gained 4 on the week on volume of 32,776 shares traded well down on weekly averages.

... and who wants to hold these over the week-end?

China trade news busted the Dow up 240, the 500 +16 and the techs running up 56 all at mid session recording record highs & this for the 5th session in a row.
News from the trade negotiators was very positive as tariffs will be cancelled / phased out in stages and Trump to meet Xi Jin Ping in Dec.

The mrkt needs little impetus to continue the Q3 bull run the Dow now 800+ points up and not a seller in sight. Nobody wants to be out looking in and Global mrkts, have all seen gains recently on hopes that China may have bottomed out is helping invstr sentiment.

While gains are nothing like those recorded in the US the ftse has treaded water since Oct 1st and the more representative 250 is just 66 better. Brexit worries or not it's been a disappointing performance.

Back in the USSR...oops the USA, other big board stocks were all blue led up by GS, Amex, Boeing, Cat & Apple up $3 to ($260) another record high (mid Jan Apple was c $150) easily outpacing the likes of Msoft, Cisco, HP and the Nsdq.
Though drifting in the pm session the Dow hit (27675) the 500 (3085) both records & Nsdq (8435) just shy of an all time high. WTI slipped 20c to $56.95.

In Asia mrkts were quiet conflicting interpretations as to phase-one deal kept invstrs quiet as did China exports decling a lot less than expected (0.9%) compared to Sept (3.2%) as we're imports.
The Nikkei lost c.300 points in the morning to trade just 19 up, HK down 177 & SH off 2 late on.

The nos:- Oil $ 62.11
Gold $1469. Palm $622.
$ 1.281. € 1.159. FF -16
DF -22.
Morning all.

Ok, I have no financial interest here anymore but I cheer from the side lines on those 'up' days, Go G,G,G,G! I dug out of my waste paper basket of duff trades mostly G and saw my last sell of G was 238, not that it gave me any comfort for I'm sure G is headed way north of that (boyo predictions coming true) and well done for not getting the 'raging hump' and washing your hands of the whole bloody mess that G was back sub 125-150 (*bunks you shrewdie*).
I'm doing all right atm though the vibes coming from my 'blood thing' are not good. From what little I can gather the administrator will struggle to raise enough for a meal down his local chippy.

170-180...should it not be the other way round? Backwardation seems to have gone out of fashion...where the sp rates above the offer? Whatever us mere mortals led like lambs to the slaughter better be on one's toes because while every commentator, back room lawyer screams "Buy Palm" you know its going t's up.
But beware there's many a slip between....and to this effect I have sold a few today to move into an o...lie. I'm kidding of course .... i'd no longer be short here than pay for the next round in my local of which im told the next few are on me.....grrrrr!

Up a touch but in the real world meaningless imo. With CPO on a tare up these $ increases in the cpo must eventuality seap down to the bottom line.
Mrkts in my expierience are not much bothered about short term
movements in the price of jelly beans let alone palm. So while CPO trends higher REA might in fact go lower due to the debt and how much this increase in CPO actually means anything after the almost certain accounting provisions to come (don't they always).
I'm not getting excited. I'll wager REA will not hit 200 by year end, now there's a bet for you bulls of palm.

Yesterday palm stocks were quiet to mixed in London even as cpo rose $10 to close at years high $615.
Anglo fell 19 (485), MPE added 8 (664) but the star of the show was Dekel up 0.25 to 2.15p. EPA and REA unmoved.
In REAs case the re-rating from sub 100 lows may have already occurred and is slow to react to the surging CPO price.
How sustainable is the cpo price, that is the question that estate owners need answering. We have only had 3 days of $600+ cpo so too early to tell.

Indonesia's freeze on palm oil plantation permits lack transparency making it difficult to assess the effectiveness as the Govt have been slow in tabling the nos issued/revoked & those prosecuted etc..
A temporary 3 year ban is in place in a bid to protect the forests but some suspect landholders are ignoring the ban and planting in inaccessible areas and the Govt are turning a blind eye.

Despite threatening to take back 1.4m ha (3.5m acres) of forest as part of its ban on land clearing... abuses continue. Indonesia has the largest planted acreage in the world of c.12mha or 46,000 sq miles.

RSPO the 'Gold' Standard certification for plantations to achieve is well below the Govt % target.

Very little movement in stocks as reports surfaced that delays on phase-one trade deal had occurred. Even local issues were on the back burner and individual company stocks were the focus.
Walgreen Boots hit the buffers dropping 4% on possible snags to its return to the private sector and the energy sector fell 2%, Exxon & Chevron off 1.5% & 1% though WTI barely moved down 11c to $56.28. However a raft of E & P oil minnows reporting nos have been discouraging.
Other casualties included Boeing down $4 ($354), 3M & Caterpillar both off c.1%. Topping the big board were P&G ($120), Cisco ($48) & Verizon ($60) up between 0.05% and 1.50%.

Similar in Asia stocks off best for the session the Nikkei down 7, HK -100 & SH losing 7. Delays to phase-one and tariff roll backs kept invstrs on the sidelines.
Talk that Trumps imminent impeachment might weaken him into being more amenable to concessions look wide of the mark. All Pan Pacifics are lower heading to close. Late news that COFCO a Chinese conglomerate has agreed to buy $100m of pork from Danish Crown caused a 4% drop in US hog futures another blow to American pig farmers.

The nos:- Oil $61.73.
Gold $1492. Palm $614.
$ 1.284. € 1.161. FF +18
DF+12.
Morning all.

When I bght REA back in July the sp was 96-106ish and the cpo was $479.
How things change in just 3 short months.
Cpo has hit $610 a 27% jump and REA trades at 168 a 78% jump.
If I remember the "Evil Knievels" interest here sparked the rally which fortuitously coincided with the rally in palm prices resulting in a happy marriage of convenience.

As you know prices are way down on the last 10yr average and have every chance of getting back to those levels by 2020/1 evidenced by the huge jump seen in cpo from about $480 to c.$1270 between Nov 2008 & Feb 2011.
That $800 jump might be asking too much however a $200 rise is feasible imo.

Prefs just hit $80.

Indonesia posted another Q of slowing growth down from 5.20% to 5% for the July- Sept period its weakest pace in 2 years due to slumping commodity prices for coal and palm oil.
Last month the Indonesian Central Bank cut rates for the 4th month in a row hoping to stimulate economic activity as President Wikodo forges ahead with his reform agenda and big increases in infrastructure
spending at the same time pushing through unpopular Labour market reforms.
Not everyone is convinced given the weak global economy and worries on China trade war with the US.

Mrkts are flat in Asia moving up or down on trade developments or lack of...
In Tokyo the Nikkei is up 44, HK gaining 33 though popular pis counters Galaxy Entertainment & Sunny Optical were sold off and SH down 7 despite cutting base rate by 0.05% to 3.25%. Further rate cuts are expected following global rate cuts.

Earlier US stocks hit new highs (Dow up 31 & Nsdq just a point) while the 500 slipped 4. Among stocks Wallgreen/Boots in talks with private equity to go private headed the leaders. Boeing (up $7), Exxon, McDonald's and Walmart all $ gainers on the day, while Coca Cola, Disney, Visa & Pfizer headed lower. US crude lost 31c to $56.92.

The nos:- Oil $ 62.73.
Gold $ 1486. Palm $606.
$ 1.287. € 1.163. FF -24.
DF+4.

Cpo closes above $600 at $605 but a long way south of the 10yr average of $848. In 2018 REA selling exclusively into the local mrkt achieved $470pt for CPO & $1007 CPKO fob Samarinda / net of export duty. Both prices well down on 2017 of $592 & $1134 respectively.

While the surge from $470 will be too late to impact on this year's profit/loss account, it augurs well for H1 2020 if the Govts B30 biofuel plans take off and could lead to near break even by end 2020 if substantially above $650 and output is stepped up or diverted to satisfy biodiesel. To date tonnage has fallen due to the dry weather, fertilisation cuts and the 'haze".

A further boost to prices could occur when B50 comes in by 2020 and then B100 which The World Resources Institute believe could encourage 7.2mha of extra land being needed.
I don't know at what price REA will start to ramp up replanting the c.50,000ha which they hoped to have fully planted by 2025. I imagine they will start next year if not sooner as prices look to be rising this year as global production drops by c 2-3mt in 2020.
Morning all.