Member Info for JohnLewis79

...you needed reminding REA started 2019 at 244. You won't care about that if you bght in the 100s but ways to go to get back to that level. I'm betting we wont.

Just a thought, G ytd up c.14%
Crude up c.12%. I agree the daily moves are very frustrating but as you guys know its par for the course. Gkp has performed better currently 19% up ytd.
PS. Has lemmings deserted G?

While the cpo % increases off lows look good the ytd is a more measured 12%. Crude (Brent) is up c.12% ytd as well.

Just a few short months ago (22/7) palm hit a low of $477. Four months later palm is priced at $656, c.$200 rise (37%). Now who'd a thunk that?

Malaysia will levy from next year an additional 1 ringgit (0.24c) to 14 ringgit per tonne to fund reforestation, wildlife conservation and boost sustainable best estate practice.
That's a step in the right direction. The industry as a whole have been slow in countering some of the wilder accusations of the 'Hate Palm Oil'
lobby.

mean Sphere gambles? That was a no brainer imo tanked by the Kamikaze management of the Co
nothing to do with the product which was years ahead of its time. A gamble? Probably in so far as any stock is one especially Aim...ers!
Not sure what point your making on the respective mrkt caps of the 3 stocks. Too low, too high, REA c.10× the other two? REA inc 3rd party is producing 900,000 t a year. What vol do DKL & PAL achieve? That might explain the wide gap be it right or not I dunno.

Retailers pulled the Dow off recent record highs the 30 falling 102 (27934). Nos from Home Depot & Kohls disappointed which sent other retailers Macy's and Costco down. Energy stocks fell to their lowest level this month Exxon off a $, Chevron $2. WTI u/c at $55.55 down c.$12 ytd. Techs were strong sending Nsdq up 21 (8571) another record close the 500 slipped 2.

The US Senate unanimously approved a bill supporting the HK protestors which might adversely impact sentiment with China on the trade talks. It's unlikely any agreement will be reached this year, Trump threatening to add to tariffs if no agreement can be reached.

Japan export nos fell 9% in Oct the worst monthly decline in 3 years depressing Far Eastern bourses. A recent sales tax hike hardly helping. Japanese exports to the US mostly Autos & Parts fell 11% (imports down 17%) also continuing trade tensions with S.Korea dented sales.

With the end game in sight only a few protestors are holed up in HKPU thousands have been arrested and face an uncertain future. The Hang Seng is down 180, SH off 12 and S.Korea 24.

The nos:- Oil $ 60.73.
Gold $1475. Palm $653.
$ 1.290. € 1.165. FF -4 &
DF -61.
Morning all.

At 200p (If we ever hit) i might be asking has the sp over performed the business or the other way round? I think we know the answer to that.
With no identifiable earnings this and next year probably gives you a pointer.

However at 200 the mrkt cap will be just £88m, many millions below NAV or EV and certainly intrinsic value which I find almost impossible to calculate which is defined as the (discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining lifetime).

Much depends on int rate moves and est of cash flows changing. I'm not capable of assessing those calcs though I understand their importance, so I'm left with EV as the preferred method and in REAs case it's way way higher than its mrkt capital value, in fact Hardman Research pegged it at £378m (860p) recently (you have to go back to end 2011 to find the sp at 800 / cpo c.$1030) and I bet the sp discount was nothing like now.

As accounting is riddled with imprecision, try valuing options or worse a Boeing 747 for nobody knows how long it will last or how to calc how much the yearly depreciation charge should be. Best one can do is estimate though they must have a tested formula, so to intrinsic val.
If someone has calculated REAs IV give me a call! I won't hold my breath. As a pis I never have targets for sp's it seems pointless to me committing yourself to a specific number. If I'm losing I tend to av down and then throw the towel in if zero recovery, no use beating your head agin a brick wall. If I'm winning I will av up if I have the cash, else i let it roll. If it's a "forever" stock, well i dont own any nowdays so REA is the nearest I have to a forever stock and intend to hold till 2025 assuming CPO behaves itself the planted acreage has substantially increased and were making money. A few ifs there but ya gotta be in it to..... 'n all that malarkey!
The CPO (r) slipped today to 3.8x

Drones are set to transform palm oil estate practice helping to make estates more efficient. Drones are being used for mapping, detecting hot spots, fires in remote areas, harvesting, pest control and field maintenance especially in areas that require water and fertilisers which the smaller drones are ideal.
As Labour and land becomes scarce the use of drones is imperative and its now driving new technology to assist estates to become more economic.

The Agri drone business is worth c.$3bn and growing at 25% a year. Because of the vast areas needed to be covered the plantation sector is ripe for more drones to be used.
Malaysia and Indonesia have plantations that cover an area the size of the UK and a single drone can cover and capture images of c.2,500ha a day while a human can barely do 5ha per day.
Genting one of the big plantation companies have 20 drones in use. Soon every plantation will have this facility.

I have forgotten how many records the Dow, 500 & Nsdq have set this year whatever those must be a record in themselves. All (3) eked out small gains to set new highs last night. The Dow gained 31 (28036) the 500 up 2 (3122) & the techs up 9 to
(8550). With no economic news of note, company stocks were in focus. The continuing stalling of a resolution to the trade deal bugged invstrs tired of this long running saga stage managed by Trump.
Among stocks Disney cont its rise from last wk up $3 to $148 despite news that subscribers to its new streaming+ service had their details hacked and were up for sale on the dark web. Nvidia and AMD led the Nsdq big stock risers with the Nsdq pulling ahead in the "ytd stakes" up 29%. Big board losers inc Boeing off $2 ($369), Amex, Cat & Merck. Risers, Disney, Nike and United Health.
The Energy sector was pulled lower on losses to Exxon & Chevron, WTI little changed $56.92. US mrkts are called higher at open today.

In Asia mrkts opened mixed with no economic data to hand, it's the cont protest at the HK Poly University that's causing so much concern. A hard core of c.200 are barricaded / trapped inside while hundreds have fled the campus only to be rounded up by the Police and now face severe repurcussions which could include a 10yr jail sentence.
Currently the Nikkei is off 100 led lower by big falls in Z Holdings, Softbank & Sony. SH up 13 and the Hang Seng adding 226 on hopes that the protest has been broken and normal life will resume.

The nos: Oil $ 62.35.
Gold $1470. Palm $638.
$ 1.295. € 1.169. FF +16.
DF +34.
Morning all.

....though I am showing an alarmingly beneficial profit on my investment here, albeit in the 100's as opposed to the 1000's I console myself that my % gain is the same as you big hitters!
Given at my late stage in life for investing in shares i consider this a small coup as I no longer punt the outsider of 4 (If you get my meaning).

Per cent wise I'm up c. 40 on my 2 purchases, one at the low and one at a higher (136) price awaiting confirmation of the direction of travel. So far so good and i see no reason atm to cash in my profits, the 'trend being ones friend' an' all... so percieved wisdom says.
We have passed the dodgy 'Oct month' of crashes and look set fair for a Dec rally in prices.

As to REA the anti palm oil brigade they are alive and well ramping up on the 'deforestation' issue which I have no doubt will keep invstrs away from this sector.
That imo is not a 'red flag' to ignore this sector......but look beyond the 'hate palm' lobby and consider the other side of the coin.
Ok I'm sure you will accuse me of talking my own book... and I hold my hands up on that score.
However I don't think I'm a 'ramper' of REA stock as i have voiced on occasions the risks of an investment here. As ever one does not buy stocks on BB recommendations however much you agree with the poster.
Buy or sell should always be your decision having weighed up all the available info.
To date few pis have travelled to this sector as most pis tend to stick with what they know and these days rarely investigate pastures new on a long term outlook, that maybe the default position, not one I have ever considered.
If your not prepared to take risks
buy Gilts or keep your money under the mattress.

Heres how borrowings can damage a co balance sheet.
REA has c.£101m in bank borrowings. If we were debt free the NAV of the Company would jump to 645 pps from the current 415 pps. Even at the latter pps there's a wide margin of safety from our current 171 mrkt value.

Unfortunately we are where we are and its beholden for the board to use the cash to grow the Company. I'm sure they are. It's very much a wait and see on a number of fronts as to whether they succeed.

REA nav £183m (415 pps). Prev calc in $.

If you follow the nos and I can't swear to the below as likely they are not up to date, lse not being the greatest at updating the nos (shares in issue etc..) anyway an indication at best.

NAV (£?)

ANG 465m (1162pps)
DKL 11.6m (2.7)
EPA 6.9m (1.95)
MPE 401m (729)
REA 237m (538)

On the year to date London palm stocks performance.

ANG -9%
DKL -40%
PAL -48%
MPE -0.05%
REA -30%

CPO started year at c.$583 dropped to a $544 low and currently $641 up c.10% on the year.

All share +10%

Beware dog owners living in St Ives, Pendeen and other parts of Cornwall as palm oil or a "yellowish" substance has been washed up on Cornwall beaches according to Cornwall Council.
If released into the sea the oil can become contaminated by other waste products and be injurious to dogs.

France has rejected a tax break on palm oil that would have greatly helped energy giant Total after the "Hate Palm Oil" lobby succeeded in overturning the legislation.
Total has filed a lawsuit against Parliaments decision to single out palm oil. Totals CEO said other companies already benefit from tax breaks and its highly anti competitive to single out Total purely because of the palm oil issue. Total had planned to process 300kt of oil at its Mede refinery this year now being blockaded by activists.

The "Hate Palm Oil" lobby, ie Greenpeace succeeded in overturning the National Assembly's original decision to add palm oil on to a list of biofuel sources that would receive tax breaks until 2026. Under pressure a second vote was called which reversed the original decision.

Record busting in NY has done little for Asian stocks at the start of wk 47. The Nikkei up 55, HK adding 216 and SH up 12 all in morning trade.
Continuing violence overnight in HK has not dented the mrkt and properties, banks & techs are all up headed by Geely Autos in the No 1 spot.

Despite its reputational damage the mrkts will be wary of the updates on the domestic nos from the HK Govt this week as tourism, aviation and retail have all been severely hit. With HK in or near recession only the brave are buying atm.

Hopes of further progress on US/China trade talks have kept invstrs in a bullish mood, see global mrkts for evidence with only HK of the big 5 bourses not sporting double digit gains this year.

The nos: Oil $63.30.
Gold $1466. Palm $643.
$ 1.292. € 1.168. FF +1
DF -7.
Morning all.

A 4 day week Mr Comrade? JM Keynes predicted years ago given the advances in technology he foresaw we would be working tops 15 hours a week. Even Tricky Dicky (Nixon) promised a 4 day working week back in the 70s was around the corner.
Jer as always is well behind the times. The av working week in this country has fallen from c.48 hours (6 day wk) in the '50s to c.36 nowdays.
That's why football matches started at 3.00pm on a Sat so as to allow workers on a 6 day week time to get to the ground to see the match.

The world of work has changed vastly since the years of bygone. Part time, flexible etc., are the norm nowdays and throw off unrealised benefits to workers and employers alike.
In Japan Microsoft trialled cutting the working week to 4 from 5 days a week without cutting pay and saw a 40% increase in sales. What works for some would be a disaster for others. Take the NHS for starters. The Centre for Policy Studies est the cost to be between £20bn and c.£45bn a year extra if Labour carried out their 4 day wk policy for the NHS.

You and me know a 4 day wk for the NHS is and always will be a non starter. Its not a one size fits all Comrade, get with the programme businesses are already restructuring the working week to suit their employees and need no instruction from a bench sitter like you to tell them how to structure their workforce hours of work.

Comrade C driven by dreadful poll predictions in desperation promises the earth to his dwindling band of adherents. His latest wheeze is free broadband for all, obviously thrown out as some sort of 'come on.' from the 'Momentum' back office of numpties.
I bet he didn't dream up this nonsense just the fall guy to deliver this drivel to a sea of non believers and WTF you doing Jer?

However bad the coverage of broadband and it is, mostly through lack of competition it would be crazy to replace it by Govt control given past disasters.
No-one believes it would be free, Labour costings are c.£20bn, others nearer the nuts and bolts upward of £100bn. The Govt will have to borrow to pay for nationalizing Open Reach and running costs will be met by the tax payer or other multinationals. Disaffected ex employees will be re-hired at greatly increased salaries to carry on where they left off the previous month.

This does not bode well for a super broadband service. McDonnell 'aka' Malenkov the purge master of the Soviet Union under Stalin is his hero. He thinks Venezuela style economics would be part of a human rights package provided and paid for by the nanny state for a grovelling people is the answer. He cannot be more wrong. Jeez most of us are already hooked up to 5,6,7, G on our mobiles for chrisssakes.

For far too long the Tories have crumbled in the face of crazy radical 'pie in the sky' promises from people who have yet to run a whelk stall let alone a veg stall.
Boris must prick this nonsense forthwith and follow the instincts of the majority of people who realise you only get what you pay for and thats via the free market and not a hand out with strings attached from the Comrade and his band of nutters.