Member Info for JohnLewis79

A bright start to the wks trading in Asia. HK flew up 414 but has levelled off in pm trading. Pro democracy candidates swept up 17/18 of the seats in the local district council elections another slap in the face to Carrie Lam's Govt. Should the Govt not enact reforms protests could resume. The Govt is in a real dilemma.
Some positive talk on trade by Trump and Xi Jin Ping helped sentiment.
Towards close the Nikkei is up 179 and SH adding 14.

The nos:- Oil $63.64
Gold $1458. Palm $676.
$1.285. € 1.165. FF +26
DF +96.
Morning all.

Talk about the Dept of Silly walks we now have Corbins dept of silly ideas which will certainly take us back to the "sick man" of Europe days. Remember the 'winter of discontent' when grave diggers went on strike and cancer sufferers were sent home? Maos little red book dictates McDonnells
philosophy of smash 'n grab for the 2020s.
He conveniently forgets its only since China allowed the private sector to flourish that the 'great leap' forward has boosted prosperity for millions of Chinese.

In no circumstances should you aspire to earn more money to provide for your family for if you do you will pay an eye watering 67% of your £100k salary and will have less to pass on to your children via cuts to inheritance tax.
The so called 5% top earners paying for everything is a nonsense. The burden of tax rises will be shared by all.

Nationalsing industries, open reach etc.., have not been costed and will require borrowing on a massive scale. Increasing company tax
(u/c under the Tories) will lead to less investment, loss of jobs and limit expansion plans. Companies are already planning to shift ownership offshore to escape Comrades cut price nationalisation scams.

Finally do you want a PM who would fail his 'security' vetting? The former head of MI6 said Comrade and cronies would be blocked from attending UK national security agencies. He wrote in The Mail on Sunday " do not even think of taking the risk of handing Comrade C the keys to No 10.

Thank goodness it will never happen. Voting intentions from latest YouGov poll of 1677 adults polled 21/2 Nov are...

Blue 42%
Red 30%
LD 16%
BRX 3%

REA yearly closing prices since :-

2009 410
2010 731
2011 577
2012 470
2013 447
2014 347
2015 251
2016 352
2017 335
2018 244

High 799/800 (2011)
Low 95/6
Current 178
Av sp 416
Below av sp 238

Morning all.

Debt has always been a worry for me be it personal or in companies I have invested into.
Some companies manage debt wisely, short and long term. REA has c.$74m short and c.$292m long as of Dec'19.
So REAs debt to equity ratio is 1.54 (total liabilities ÷ shareholders funds) or put it this way for every $ of holders REA equity it also has $1.54 in debt.
Not what one wants to see on a balance sheet.
However there are exceptions, in REAs case revenues have been hit by the low CPO price which feeds to the bottom line and will be reversed if and when CPO prices recover.
Hence I'm not overly worried about the total long term debt a) because it's manageable & b) because lenders are confident they will be repaid.
As to short term liables mostly trade and other payables of ($74m) or 31c in debt v $1.23 of long you always want to see this nos well below the longer term borrowings because you leave yourself at the mercy of sudden and unexpected shifts in rates, credit and being 'called in'
Some of this short term might be rolled over?
Anyways rule of thumb is if short term borrowings exceed long term, watch out!

Longer term is bad enough as REA is not self financing it needs this finance. Put it this way.... ideally "No long term debt a good bet" However in REAs case "long term debt still a good bet." Let's hope so.

REA wks vol looked to be running to par but for two late reported trades from Thrs, one of 50,000 at 173 & 14,129 at 183 boosted the wks vol to 95,421 on 18 deals.
Star performer on the wk was DKL +23%.

Wk 47
Ang +26
DKL +0.45
EPA -0.05
MPE +7
REA +7
CPO(r) 3.71

Mrkts
Ftse +24
All +14
250 +82
SCP +22
Aim +15

DJ -129
SP -10
NS -21
R2 -7

TK -190
HK +286
SH -6

Oil +14c
Gold -$8
Palm +$24

$ -0.54%
€ -0.26%
IDR +12r
Morning all.

One good riser on London palms today. DKL led the way jumping 17% to 2.30 bid which is the only nos pis should be interested in imo. However no insight as to why the sp rise would be so?
Shall we say jobbers manipulation? I have no idea other than the sp is certain to fall back if past performance of tiddler Aim stocks is anything to go by. So c'mon rugs why the rise and have you sold a few?

Other palmers unchanged as CPO hits a $664 close best for yonks. REA unmoved as was PAL but Mpe gained 2 & Anglo put on 23.

All in all outside of DKL % rise others were little changed from yer usual sleepy Friday (3 up 2 u/c). That's fine by me cos I aint holding these over the wk end!

Have a good one! Go Eagles!

Conservative estimates of the fall in London stocks should Labour get in is c.15%. That's a very very conservative est. Double that more like when you factor in the raid on dividends, cap gains, financial transactions and nationalisation of everything and most importantly punishing the wealth creators.
Is this not what happened in Venezuela? That crazy sob / regime destroyed opportunities to make money leaving no money for public services, no jobs no oil to speak of and rampant inflation.

Thank God this £82bn and more nightmare scenario is just a bad dream, for who on earth would invest here?

Labs crackpot shameless manifesto of envy is rightly ignored by mrkts as the Cons are big odds on to win the election, so why give Comrade the time of day?

Current odds:-
Cons 1/14
Lab 12/1

Overall Maj
Cons 1/2
Lab 33/1

No overall Maj
Cons 15/8

If you fancy a flutter the books will accommodate most esoteric bets.
I might have a punt on turnout being under 60% at 8s.

Cpo/sp (r) has narrowed from lows of late July (5.02). As of yesterday the sp has been exceeding the rise in CPO giving a current (r) 3.7 a significant improvement.
As long as the sp tracks or exceeds the rise in CPO all should be well the (r) being a simple way to check (lower good/higher bad). Ideally parity would be good but never likely to happen.
I think the best we can hope for this year is 205 and CPO $680, which would be (r) 3.3 id settle for that right now.

It's Friday and prices if anything tend to drift. So here's the starting prices for London palm stocks this morning.

Ang 526
DKL 2.05
Pal 1.00
MPE 684
REA 178
Last 5 'Friday' closes for REA as follows.

Wk 42 166 (u/c)
Wk 43 158 (-7)
Wk 44 170 (-05)
Wk 45 174 (-3)
Wk 46 171 (u/c)

Time for an UP close then?

Malaysia CPO futures (last
close RM 2685) is expected to hit RM 3000pt
in H1 2020. They will continue the export duty exemption next year as Mal CPO prices are $25-$30 higher than Indonesia.
Malaysia will introduce B20 in two selected States and hopes to be nationwide by end 2020 with biodiesel supporting prices. Indonesia will implement B30 in Jan.

The Nov CPO price has been very bullish and the futures mrkt is driving the physical. The last time CPO hit RM3000 was in 2016 during the El Nino phenomenon of 2015 which damaged output.

Beijing has invited US Trade negotiators to come to China for another round of talks, the 15th or 16th who knows anymore. It's a never ending merrygo- round with master puppeteer Trump pulling the strings.
Stocks opened lower following Wed decline the Dow some 50 off as London closed but rallied as the afternoon crowd did some bottom fishing pushing the 30 to near break even though decliners out-numbered advances by 1624 to 1168.
However stocks faded back & by close the Dow off 55 (27766) 500 down 5 to (3104) and Nsdq slid 21(8566) on chip makers getting sold off.

However the S&P tech sector (FAANGs) is up 41% ytd and heading for its best yearly gain in 10 years as invstrs pile into fast growing techs where longer term growth is seen.

Among stocks Boeing was off c.$2 early despite taking centre stage at the Dubai Air Show picking up orders for 50 Max Jet planes worth $6bn, as yet still grounded by the FAA. However Emirates Airways is reducing its order for the 777X jet in favour of the smaller 787.
Emirates has 126 777X on order but has become frustrated by delays inc those related to the new GEC engine.
By close sellers sold off Boeing on the unrelenting problems, the stock slid c.$5 ($366) to the bottom of the laggards.
Tesla has been back in favour up c.$3 ($355) on the cybertruck debut and is in the top 4% this year in terms of best stock price performers.

Oils led the big board gainers, Exxon up c.$2 topped the leaders climbing on back of better crude prices gaining $1.50 to $58.80 on a smaller build in inventories but slipped back at close $58.24 as worries surfaced over future demand.

Asia has opened mixed Friday morning, TK up 78 & HK up 70. SH is down 18 on delays to the phase-one deal and has condemned moves by Congress in supporting the HK protestors and have threatened counter measures. In a surprise move China has reportedly poured c.$20bn into the HK mrkt during the unrest while deserting their tech heavy ChiNext index, which has slipped into 'bear' territory down 20% from the recent 1778 high due in part to China/US trade and strains in the credit mrkts. Shanghai's main index is up 16% ytd.

The nos:- Oil $63.66.
Gold $1465. Palm $656.
$1.291. €1.167. FF +28.
DF +37.
Morning all.

McDonnell set to hit oil & gas companies with a £11bn windfall tax. Should go down well in Scotland!!

Seems not a day goes by without MPE buying back stock. This has advantages for holders as repurchases are usually a plus if strict guidelines listed below are followed.

* must be bght below intrinsic value.
* another willing buyer in the mrkt.
* as the outstanding shares decline your % holding rises.
* your shares gain in intrinsic value.
* eps increase
* you will not pay 7.5% on the div if your a basic rate payer.
* higher rate payers will not pay c.32%
* essentially a 'free gain'
the costs borne by the Co.
* a mix of dividends and buybacks keeps everyone happy.

There are occasions when buybacks should not take place.
* when the Co needs all the excess cash to reduce debt or expand.
* when a business acquisition or other offers better value than the underpriced shares of the repurchaser.
* beware repurchases to 'prop' a stock up.

Some say buybacks simply divert funds needed for productive means. I don't buy that.
Many iis are awash with funds looking to be deployed. I'm not aware of any project that in recent times has been denied to REA through lack of capital. Far from it. REA has been a serial raiser of capital for many years including this year.

Malaysia and Indonesia will see little growth in output next year potentially leading to a supply squeeze & higher prices leading analyst James Fry said on Wed.
Indonesia the No 1 producer (2018/48mt) will grow c.2%-3% at best hurt by drought and lower fertiliser use. On the supply side it's tipping to towards defecit and we are set for higher prices as B30-50 kicks in.

European CPO will climb to $700 a tonne in Q1 2020 as Rotterdam closed at $675pt on Tuesday and on the Malaysian Exchange CPOrose 2% to 2680 ringgit ($645).

... Palm Oil can be sustainable. Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne.

Turning an abandoned pasture into a palm oil estate can be carbon neutral according to a new report. These findings based on measurements of 56 year old tree plantations (2 life cycles) in Colombia suggest we may be able to find suitable alternatives to deforestation for the production of palm oil currently under fire by environmentalists.

Source as above and
10.1126/sciadv. aaw 4418

A timely bout of profit taking in early afternoon caused by China trade delays took the shine off the 3 main indexes. The Dow hit a 27675 low (-260) before recovering in afternoon trade closing down 113 at (27821) the 500 off 12 and the techs lost 44.
Delays to phase-one deal and the US Gov'ts declaration to support HKs autonomy from Beijing 'played' on invstrs at this perilous stage in discussions with China.

Apple very much a 'China' stock slid $3 ($263), may be exempted by Trump from swinging tariffs due on Dec 15th, to level the playing field with Samsung. About $160bn worth of tariffs on cell phones, lap tops and footwear will be targeted in this round. Beijing will retaliate by restoring the 25% duty on autos and a further $75bn on other US imports. Delays into 2020 look favourite now.

Stocks catching the eye were Home Depot extending Tuesday's 6% fall by another 5% along with 2% falls in Dow Chem, Cat and 3M. Chevron pulled out of a 4 day slump as oils gained $3 fuelling gains in O&G counters as $55 looks the floor for WTI.
Boeing topped the Big Board adding $4 to $371 while still working on a fix for the Max Jet and redesign to fan blades & cowling on the 737NG (predecessor to the MJ) which caused a fatal accident to Southwest Air last year. No timeline has been agreed by the FAA for the jet to resume service.

Trade concerns sank Asia early Thursday led by HK off 430, Tokyo down 180 and SH losing 13. About 100 protestors are still holed up in HKPU defying the Police. It's unlikely they will be able to hold out much longer.

The nos:- Oil $ 62.19.
Gold $ 1472. Palm $657.
$ 1.292. € 1.167. FF -33. DF -50.
Morning all.

Halfway through the week and CPO cont its climb up $9 to $658 today & $17 wtd. Anglo the main casualty down 19 to 510 on 7:1 sales over buys.
DKL inched up 0.05, Pal inched down 0.05 and MPE, REA u/c.
In the latter's case the spread just widened which seems stuck in the 165-175/ -- 165/185 area. Three deals today all at 180 on 12,000 vol a tad better than yesterday (7284).

Cheers bunks, boyo, yea ticking along....still awaiting news from the administrators on my blood thing but not hopeful I'll see anyrhing back thanx to the Kamikaze bod. My last few k is doing ok atm so mustn't complain.....At least you can console yourselves with the handsome div yielding c.6%....NICE!

Think I'll coin a new name for invstrs like me forever changing from positives to negatives in a flash.
I'm a "bullber" from now on stuck in the middle between bull and bear ready to jump either way.

Being over positive (not dumping losers) on stocks over the years has cost me plenty particularly in not paying attention to what the mrkt is telling me. Big big mistake!
Of course the mrkt misprices stocks from time to time but in the main it does not pay to buck the mrkt. Hence the mrkt is telling me to be long REA and I ain't about
to disagree.