Member Info for JohnLewis79

Small lot selling is par for the course especially if you have turned a coin and the benchmark CPO price is heading up. They say buy on the rumour sell on the news or in REAs case take profits. Whatever as a holder whose horizons extend to 2020/1 i'm hoping REA will be nearer 300 by then.
For sure nervous holders are best advised to take profits before mrkt sharks snatch them away. Lots have to go in our favour to reach that sp, not least the bloody debt problem which I bang on about all the time has to come down. I'm sure you guys know how big a debt problem, (debt to equity ratio) REA faces even with CPO at $600+.

Last year we lost £14.2m or 33 pps give or take. Of this finance costs amounted to £7.9m (23 pps) an unreasonable % of the company debt. Essentially REA is paying out 55% of our operating income in interest payments to assorted creditors. This finance cost is unacceptable as in the longer term cash is being drained from shareholders funds and cannot be used to grow the business.

REA has probably been in a bear mrkt of its own since 2017/8 so was a great buy sub 125 as imo it faced a one time solvable problem of low CPO prices and little else. The risk/reward was favourable to the brave investor who spotted the opportunity. Good or bad we are where we are. Here's the thing if CPO remains at c.$600+....... finance costs will tumble and profits will rise. Currently we are using leverage (debt) to generate earnings, unfortunately the golden goose ain't laying any golden eggs!
Regardless I can think of worse places to be invested given we earn outside of the UK and should escape Brexit/ GBP worries. If Trump and the Chinese can agree a deal in 2020, then we have a clear path forward to a much better future.

Sorry that's a Bowie thing which i used as an intro here. I'm not a holder here but I sure could have been back in the day. You guys know buying is easy....selling is the fear of losing out on future profits. No-one can give you advice on that decision.
All I would say is if your decently in profit take your costs out and let the rest run for free, at least you will only have your profits at risk if things don't pan out... and you will live to fight another day. Gluck all.

For sure a lot of the Crown is off the factual mark and inaccurate in parts but does it really matter in this day and age? Don't they say never let the facts get in the way of a good story?
Series 1&2 we're more interesting and you could not fault the performances
throughout all were terrific even Queen Olivia who kicked off Series 3 which has taken some stick mostly down to Colmans portrayal of the Queen, unwarranted imo.

Beautifully made, superb locations a story that never flags..., Aberfan was especially poignant. What's not to like?

What a car crash last night on the Neil v Comrade show! Poor old Jer was skewered by Neil on the Jewish question and wriggle as hard as he could he could not shake off the hookline.
Time and again he was asked if he would apologise, he squirmed, huffed and puffed and reluctantly admitted more should have been done but as to an apology, I heard none.
He was vague on Britain's defence, nothing new there. Vague on borrowings and how the WASPIs would be paid. You could see the obvious distress and confusion he was under making up the nos as he went along. For supposedly a shrewd operator Neil made him look a complete chump.

Like Andrews dreadful performance last week Jer might just be facing early retirement.

You make some good points hereandnow but like REA and I know comparisons are odious but debt is holding the sp back imo. I certainly believe it of REA.
Your DtoE ratio is remarkably similar to REA in that c.£1.50 is owed for every £1 retained. Of course REAs debts dwarf yours by c.24 x.
Interestingly both share prices have fallen a similar ytd % of c.27%.

Maybe the two companies should get together....

US stocks powered up for the 10th all time high in Nov. The Dow has put on 1076 this month closing up 55 at (28122) and ytd up 21% the 500 at (3141) & the techs (8648).
Trade news boosted stocks when Trump said Washington was in the 'final throes' of signing a deal.
Fed Chair Powell added to the bullish debate by saying the US economy was performing well, low inflation and low rates had worked through to the housing sector spurring house sales. House prices are edging up at a 3.2% national rate.
The trade deficit fell 6% to $66bn but will post the bigest defecit in 11 years. Consumer confidence fell for the 4th straight month in Nov belying the longest economic expansion on record.

Stocks in focus were Walt Disney hitting new highs as c.1m new subscribers are signing up every wk to their streaming service now 2 wks in. Netflix Not much impressed was off $3 ($312) but has gained c.$12 this month.
WD headed the advances while Apple, & Walgreen propped up the laggards along with energies and healthcare.
Boeing added 38c seemingly oblivious to the FAA saying certification will not be granted as design changes to the MaxJet need further investigation.

US mrkts will be closed on Thrs for Thanksgiving and a half day on Friday will end a record busting month for US equities.

It was blue across Asia on back of Walls record busting performance but subdued rather than euphoric. The Nikkei is up 110 (ytd 17%). HK just 12 with Alibaba up $6 to $193 at the lunch break and no further clashes with the Police has calmed invstrs nerves. SH is up 5 on local issues and matches TK on ytd gains.

The nos:- Oil $64.13.
Gold $ 1459. Palm $668.
$ 1.285. € 1.167. FF +7. DF +40. BMP 7132*

*Bursa Malaya Plantation index up 6% ytd.
Morning all.

Thanx guys appreciate all your comments. A big blow to me financially but even worse that the Co could not attract a buyer for a great British product. I think its scandalous that no funds could be raised to save the Co. Our obsession with the clapped out High St is far more important than nurturing vibrant start up companies. I suspect we have not heard the last of this shameful affair.
I continue to follow the ups'n downs of G and admire the fortitude of all the long-termers here. It has not been a very rewarding investment for anyone in 200 range yet the company throws off cash by the bucket full
and pays a great dividend.
As Sphere Medical couldnt raise a dime..... G can't raise their share price. Another of life's stock mrkt mysteries.
Morning all.

This sector of the lse gets little in the way of news coverage or broker comment. That's ok by me as I'm not dependent on news flow to back up my decision to invest in REA.
No doubt when CPO hits $1000 all and sundry will be posting here..." I told you so....buy of the year you cant go wrong." Yea yea yea, I'll be long gone by then.....

.........So no surprise Santa has not come bearing gifts just yet and my 240 year end nos looks a cast iron certainty to miss. Today is another in a frustratingly lukewarm session... one of many recently....we need some Xmas cheer! One certainly has to have the patience of Job here, no use in expecting fireworks or waiting around for a bid that never comes. Put your certs in the bottom drawer and forget them till year end. If you have lasted that long you'll likely be here in 2020.
If we close out at c180-200 I will have done well in the 6 months of my stay though only on paper. Now is not the time to be short REA or the sector. Next year could be transformational for palm companies given the usual caveats.

Today saw Anglo trimmed back to 6 up, MPE -2 all others were unchanged. Palm trading range today ($656-$671) closing at $669 for the 17th day over $600, that I like.

In my defence i'd just like to say my involvement in Sphere Medial was not a punt on a blue sky mining outfit, far far from it. Which makes it all the more distressing that a proven medical device that went through 5 years of proto-typing 2 years of vigorous testing and 2 years of CE marking for commercial application has come to such a sad end.

The device did what it said on the tin. It passed every test set at QEH Birmingham, Southampton Gen & Great Ormond St. The device did / would have improved patient outcomes, would have reduced nurses workload freeing them up for other duties. The device proved more cost effective than current methods but was up against the 'nimby' attitude of NHS procurement depts and the big Blood Gas analysis companies who had ruled this area for years.

It never stood a chance and blinded by the tech wizardry of the machine I ignored the bigger forces lined up against it.
Oh well....you die and learn. I won't be dancing to my local anymore that's for effn certain.

Letter from the administrators contained little for invstrs or rather nothing for invstrs.

In a summary of proposals * no offers were made for the shares of the Group or for the intellectual property so rescuing the Co as a going concern is not achievable.

*Administration charges at £501 per hour plus other costs amounted to £69,000 dwarfing any cash balances.
* Pages of admin costs totalled 11 pages.
* Pages relating to Strategy, Progress & conclusion amounted to 2
* Pages relating to background and events totalled 2.
* unsecured creditors receive nothing.
* Silicon Valley Bank the main creditor (£517,000) will receive no return.
* dissolution is advised.

Says it all really. A jolly good time was had by the management on ftse 100 salaries the sucker holders left with nothing.
Another great British tech failure.

REA would not be on any of WB's list of 'probables'The Co would fail on every criteria the most famous of which is never buy a stock that owes more than its worth. Cross out REA.Secondly he reccomends you never buy a stock whose sp is more than 2/3 of the book value. Cross out REA. You may have to wait a very long time for the criteria to reach your targets especially in a bull mrkt.While I thought REA had been wildly oversold and due a re-rate the nos hardly suggested a raging buy. However I thought at 90-100 the upside was considerable if the CPO trashed down recovered to a more sensible $550.That has proven to be the case, fortuitously I might add as demand looks to be exceeding supply on biofuel issues heading to 2020/1... just as I invested here.So while the balance sheet looks none to rosy other factors are playing a part in invstrs 'stocks/sectors to buy.' If I followed some of WBs 10 rules set in stone for stock purchases I'd never buy a bloody share. Sometimes you just gotta take a flyer and hope for the best. Spread your load of course and my load is thinly spread atm. I'm certainly not counting any chickens cos I suspect a la crude oil traders play the swings to suit why not here?

Look let's get one thing straight. Khan is in the pocket of the voiciferous Black Cab trade. The banning of Uber a disruptor of the cosy Black Cab monopoly on some ridiculous nonsense of being unsafe in one of their cabs is downright stupid, remember Worboys a Black Cab driver?

It's all about protecting the outdated Black Cab trade and is all part of Labours war on flexible hours and the self employed which have helped boost jobs in the capital. If it suits consumers and is cheap ban it as that smacks of Tory enterprise!
Try and find a Black Cab outside of the West End. If you do it will cost you an arm 'n a leg if you want to travel South of the river which has been a 'no-go' territory for 30 years at night time and most other times.

Three and a half million Londoners use Uber as their main choice because there are lots of them, they are easy to find and are very cheap. Add in that most are on the way to being hybrid and fully electric or will be in 2020... unlike the eat- your- money- Black Cab- diesel- belchers...... will also appeal to the 'greens' asva preferred method of travel.

No doubt unauthorised drivers fouled up the taxi model and Uber were slow in catching the 'dodgers' but they have been caught and dealt with.
Penalizing the other 45,000 drivers smacks of vindictiveness. There is clearly huge demand in London especially at night
time, so who will fill the void if Khan succeeds in keeping Uber off London's roads?
Me, i'd rather walk home than flag a Black Cab day or night.

No nervousness among bookies on a Tory win.

Most seats
Con 1/16
Lab 12/1

Majority
Con 4/9
Lab 30/1

Most votes
Con 1/5
Lab 7/2

I'd expect the £ to jump at least 5% and might hit $2.00 if the Blues win with a majority.

Not surprised one bit boyo. That reminded me of ENRON which managed to cover up billions of $ debt from investors and led to the fall of Arthur Anderson one of the 'big 5' audit firms. You have to them on side to pull off scams of that magnitude. Enron turned out a can of worms as did World.Com. You really would thunk in this day and age....

The CPO price surge of recent months has seen soybeans traditional $150 metric ton futures over palm oil all but wiped out. As of Friday it was down to just $26 a metric ton.
Hedge funds have cut bullish bets on soy and could see a premium for palm oil for the first time in a decade.

That's important because soy, palm and rapeseed in Europe are close substitutes for each other.
Soy has taken a hammering on China suspending imports of oilseed from the US and slack demand for animal feed as a result of African swine fever.
While soy is suffering palm is gaining on biofuel usage for transport as refiners and traders scramble to secure supplies in a very tight market.
One drawback is as palm demand increases deforestation for extra plantations is likely.. not what the Doctor ordered.
However recent studies from Sweden reckon Indonesia can fullfill demand into 2025 with better oil extraction rates better per ha production without adding to the overall plantation acreage.

Dow bulls continue to push the mrkts ever higher (Dow 28066/SP 3134/Nsd 8632/R2 1622). All 3 major indexes at record closes even the R2 small caps posted its highest close for 15 months considered by many as a strong 'buy the mrkt' signal.
Comments from China that they are prepared to compromise on IT patents & property and the China Global Times reporting a deal was near boosted equities.
A bunch of mergers added to the all round good mood of invstrs, LVMH buying Tiffany, Schwab taking out TDAmeritrade and Novartis absorbing Medecines.
The Vix index or more commonly known as the Fear gauge index hit a low of 11.8 down 53% ytd. The Vix represents the expectation of 30 day forward volatility derived from prices of the S&P 500 index options. It signals a measure of mrkt risk and invstr sentiment. Back in 2008 the Vix hit a record high no of 90. When the Vix is low stocks go up and vice versa.
At the moment Invstrs see little trouble ahead and are active in the mrkts along with mutual and hedgies so there's more than enough cash to push mrkts higher into 2020.

Goldman have issued their 2020 mrkt forecasts seeing the S&P at 3250 in H1, along with others of a bullish nature. JPM take a less rosy outlook. The Santa rally described as last 5 days of Dec and first 2 in Jan will soon be upon us, in 2018 the Santa Rally saw 640 wiped off the Dow. However despite an early Jan wobble the Dow ended Jan up 1670 or 7% at 25000. Here we are 10 months later at 28066 some 4640 (20%) higher up ytd.

The bullish mood petered out in Asia, TK up 104, HK & SH flat to down as local Co issues drove the mrkts.
Trade news saw an early 200 rise on the Nikkei but little follow through and prices fell back.

The big news in HK was Alibaba's secondary listing of 500m new odds at HK$176 (US $22). The stock surged to $189 and is still c.7% ahead in a very successful listing. Brokers see a 5 bagger inside of 10 years. Alibabas decision to list in HK is a huge boost for the Colony in these troubling times. It's primary listing is on the NYSE floated in 2014.

The nos:- $63.70.
Gold $1455. Palm $661.
Vix 11.8. $ 1.289. € 1.170.
FF+21. DF+30.
Morning all.

Only DKL remained u/c (2.40) today all other London palms slipped with CPO adding $6 to $670, off days high of $679.REA (r) lost ground (3.82) to the CPO rise today on 10,152 buys at 184.

CPO Malaysia is already at RM 2685 & forecast to hit RM 3000 in H1 2020 so I'm not sure where rivaldos RM 2400 comes from?

Other than that biofuel will be the driver of cpo and sp prices as well as output slipping back. The sector is overdue a re-rate but nobody foresaw prices surging from sub $500 to $700 in such a short space of time.
However interest is barely visible so if your a believer best add before everybody jumps on the bandwagon.

On 22/7 CPO closed at $477 according to my records. Palm has just hit $679 some 42% higher.

REA might turn a coin at that price if that level can be sustained into H1 2020.
When everyman and his dog is barking prices higher rest assured there's plenty of scope for things to go t's up.

Would I short CPO? Not a chance!

As Indonesia and Malaysia increase the content of palm oil in biofuel inevitably there will be less for other uses.
It's est that Indonesia will use c.3-4mt of palm oil for auto fuel blending purposes and Malaysia c.1mt. Prices are expected to firm up in the coming months by over $50pt and recent rains across India has seen oil seed crop damage with prices being pushed up and China has bght significantly more oil as Chinese New Year approaches.

India imports c.9mt of palm oil from Indo & Mal
which accounts for 70% of their edible oil consumption, 3.5mt of soybean and 2.5mt of sunflower. A squeeze on prices and production in 2020 bode well for palm oil producers.