Member Info for JohnLewis79

.....that Chester (the one with the Race course) declared itself the first city to use 100% sustainably sourced palm oil? Well whoopity doo!
Now Singapore a city regularly enveloped by the 'Haze' caused by the slash and burn forestry every dry season, aims to become the second such city to claim being 100% sourced.

Around 97% of palm oil is used by Singaporeans for cooking and rarely is the oil labelled 'sustainable' due to the terrible image of the oil among the youth who blame the oil for the annual toxic pollution they
suffer.

Next year there is a 70% chance of being an ultra-dry El Nino year and the whole cycle will resume yet again.

Saudi Aramco got their IPO away selling 3bn shares at $8.53 a pop raising $25.6 bn. Aramco has 200bn shares in issue (BP 20.4bn / val £94bn) and at one time had lofty ambitions to raise $100bn.

Aramco is now the most valuable ($1.7trn) Co in the world overtaking Apple at ($1.1trn).
Morning all.

......... a tare up now $704........
4/6 just one deal. C'mon buyers 174 won't last forever. Blimey I'll buy one share meself.

Last days trading this wk and since I invested there has never been a wk of zero trades. I guess there must have been some in the past but I ain't gonna check!
Odds have changed to 0/0 of at least one deal
today. Palm at $700 might attract the casual passer by while holders sit on their cheque books sucking their thumbs.

US mrkts opened on the front foot the Dow hitting 27745 up 90 before sellers trimmed gains. As London closed down 51 (7138) the Dow had slipped into the red losing 51. Boeing an early casualty fell $3 ($346) on news that the Chief Engineer had resigned and was being replaced by Lynne Hopper. Considering the welter of ghastly news this year Boeing stock is up 7% ytd.
Stocks moving ahead were Nike, Apple, Visa & Cat heading south were Coke, Disney, Cisco and oils pretty much a reversal of yesterday.

The S&P is on track to repeat the last record annual gain in 2013 when it climbed 26%. Many consider the 500 to be over valued especially compared to non US shares. The Sage of Omaha agrees. WB is keeping his cheque book locked up, sitting on a cash pile of $128 bn he's not prepared to buy stocks. If he's not, should you?
However no doubt historically the US has been the best place in the world to put your money to work. This year only beaten by mrkts in Russia and Romania...Oh and the 4000% gain in Venezuela Casino!

On the economy jobless claims dropped below the 215,000 forecast coming in at 208,000. The US Trade deficit fell 7.6% ($47bn) in Oct a one and half year low as imports dropped by $4.3bn.
The jobs report out later today is expected to see gains of 180,000 in Oct mainly in manufacturing
up from c.130,000. US unemployment at a low of 3.6%. US crude $58.27.

With the mrkt tracking sideways in the afternoon
most traders had left for Penn Station heading out to their country piles in Brentwood and the Hamptons. The few 'subway' traders left on the floor managed to push the Dow over the gain line closing a quiet session up 28 (27678) the 500 gained 5 & the techs +4.

A steady start in Asia the Nikkei up 60, HK +180 and SH flat. Gao Feng the Minister of Commerce said trade talks were progressing well but insisted roll back of existing tariffs must be on the agenda. The Dec 15 deadline looms, when extra tariffs on popular Chinese products such as smart phones will be levied. Trade is the only game in town.

The nos:- Oil $63.14.
Gold $1480. Palm $701.
Vix 14.5. $1.316. €1.184.
BMPI 7233. FF+9. DF+33.
Morning all.

A buyers strike or so it seems with CPO powering ahead its contrary to say the least that investors are not buying palm stocks. Unless investors think there's going to be a $100 pullback to the $600s.
I'm not one for forecasting CPO prices. I go on the available evidence to make a decision and to date no-one has said palm prices are ahead of the game.
In fact they are c.$100 down on the long term average. That's a fair margin of safety if CPO prices are your only criteria for buying plantation shares. Of course it could simply be there are better opportunities elsewhere to make money?

I have not been tracking buy/sell volumes in other 'palmers' but suspect they are also on the low side. In REAs case no comparison to last year because the sp fell through Dec to July before the change of heart.

What it does say to me that REA has hit its top trading range and investors see little upside until the trading update is out of the way. Can't say I disagree. Zero chance of a 200 finish to the year imo which would leave the sp down c.60-70 on the year. Without the July bounce 2019 could have been a 144p shocker,
and let's face it the CPO jump from $470 to $690 no-one but no-one saw that coming which rescued REA from the aforementioned shocker!

REA has been stuck in a rut for the last 3 weeks.
During that time CPO price has risen $63....perhaps investors are waiting for cpo to hit $1000 before buying?

Go figure!

I gotta horse...I gotta horse...
REA 4/6 to post maiden deal this week...lump on!

Year ago today:-

REA 255
CPO c.506

Ftse 6704
All 3674
Dow 24947
S&P 2696
Oil $61.56
Gold 1240.
$1.273

China and India are forecast to become the two largest global economies by 2030. China by (PPP) purchasing power parity will be twice as big as the US and India c.50% as big in the next 10 years.
By the end of the decade its estimated 40% of the world's middle classes will live in China and India and economies and companies exposed to either or both will expierience rapid growth as consumption soars.
As an investor its worth having a foot in both camps, the home economy and emerging mrkts.

Good for you know who!
(Courtesy R.Stephens MI)

An anti graft bust by the KPK State auditor has charged 2 Govt officials for allegedly taking $1.6m in bribes to grant permits for palm estates of around 500 acres. More to follow.

USA Dept of Agriculture figures for domestic consumption of palm oil (2019). Top 10:-

Indonesia 12,750 mt.
India 10,185
China 7,220
EU 7,000
Mal 3,685
Pak 3,495
Thai 2,950
Bang 1,750
USA 1,518
Nigeria 1,390
Norway 1

The recent rise in Palm Oil prices to over $600 has been supported by a number of bullish factors.
Firstly a surprising decline in stocks for last month and Soybean production and prices have been falling while biofuel usage has been rising.
The adverse climate, ageing planted acreage & regulatory crackdowns have all pushed up prices which are seen as a one way bet until they aren't.

Tit for tat tariffs cont to upset invstrs. The recent French/US spat and now the UK pushing ahead with a digital services tax aimed at the giant US tech companies who have become extremely skilled at avoiding taxes. A recent report accuses the big 5 US tech giants + Msoft of aggressively avoiding $100bn of tax over the last 10 years.

Whatever investors returned to the mrkt to pick up oversold high dividend shares and the Dow leapt 190 by 2.00pm EST. News out of Washington that a phase-one deal could be agreed by Dec 15th..... despite Trumps off the cuff remarks re China yesterday encouraged buyers to return to equities who are 'in or out' of the mrkt solely on trade talk. Leading the risers were Goldman, JPMC, Amex & 3M, going south Wallmart, Wallgreen, Cisco & Visa.

Boeing much out of favour of late slid $3 ($348) assailed on all sides by negative press comment and Boeing on Brokers sell lists. The latest blow delivered by United Airlines. They have ordered 50 Airbus planes to replace the Boeing 757-200 an order worth
c.$7bn. More bad news from Southwest, United & American have cancelled all Max jet flights through March 2020 and reports that the SEC are investigating the companies financial disclosures to regulators and customers are causing investors to cold shoulder the stock. Not much is going right for Boeing these days.
At the close of play the Dow put on 147 (27650) the 500 added 20 (3113) and Nsdq gained 46 (8567). Crude lost 21c ($58.43).

The Far East followed reports on the 'could be couldn't be'.. phase-one deal and pushed the regions bourses higher.
Tokyo up 190, HK adding 114 & SH 11 better.

The nos:- Oil $62.89.
Gold $ 1482. Palm $688.
Vix 14.8. $1.31. €1.183.
BMPI (7123). FF+8. DF -10.
Morning all.

Little movement in palm shares with CPO closing at $682.20.down a couple of bucks.
For the second day running no trading in REA. The jobbers in no mood to encourage buyers or sellers preferring to keep a level book. I doubt any Santa Rally among 'palmers' as they generally apply to ftse 100 type stocks. REA won't hit 200 this year that very much depends on the next trading update due Feb and CPO continues around current levels.
Any negatives and the stock will be hammered with invstrs showing no mercy. REA has been given the benefit of many doubts over the years and to be fair the mrkt has exacted due vengeance (800-96).

REA has demonstrated how easy they can lose money at low CPO, now's the time to show they can make money at high CPO!

Global Stock Mrkts slumped, Bonds, Treasuries, Gold and the Swiss franc all rose as safe havens attracted money fleeing from risk assets. Early on the Dow hit a session low of 27325 down c.470. At 6.00pm UK it had recovered slightly to 27405 with similar % losses on the 500 and Nsdq.
Is this Dec 2018 playing out all over again? For Dec is not a month not noted for crashing stock mrkts? The cause of all the trouble was you guessed it Trumpton shooting his mouth off.

He indicated to reporters in London he was in no rush to sign a deal with China and was happy to wait till after the election. This contrasted with earlier remarks that a deal was imminent. You rarely ever know what the man means or thinks.
Meantime the mrkt have two noteworthy events to deal with both on Thrs. Firstly the US jobs report and then the Saudi Aramco IPO hoping to raise $25bn.
Early morning stocks were being hammered across the board with only Merck up 20c showing blue. Boeing slid another $5 ($349) on news that the FAA would sign off on every MaxJet prior to delivery and the EASA would also independently assess the safety of Boeings new 777X jet. Previously it had been a cosy 'if Boeing says its ok'...its ok. Selling hit Apple, Cisco, 3M, Nike, JPM and Intel leaving them at the bottom of the laggards. Not quite panic stations as the mrkts are well used to dealing with 1000 point daily drops. Late on Google's legendary duo Larry Page and Brin are stepping down from day to day running of Google, shares up $6 at $1294.

Earlier London ftse fell 127 (7159) that's a 6wk low as Europe ramps up the war of words with Trump who seems intent on antagonising all and sundry. The French CAC fell 60 (1%) on tariff worries.

By late afternoon buyers returned to pick up oversold high dividend shares and the Dow recovered to close off 280 at (27503), the 500 lost 21
(3093) and the techs 42 at (8521) the 3rd straight losing session for equities.

No change in Asia this morning taking a lead from the US, shares opened lower and are red throughout the region.
China still smarting from Congress condemning them for the mass detention of the Muslim ethnic minority are in no mood to dance to the 'puppeteers' tune. TK is down 247, HK off 314 & SH 10 lower, all slightly off session lows.

The nos:- Oil $61.31.
Gold $1485*. Palm $684.
Vix 16. $1.299. €1.173.
BMPI 7132. FF +3. DF +6.
Morning all.
* Gold is $200 up ytd (c.16%)

Palm approaching $100 up ytd, though prices slipped through H1 to bottom out at c.$477 lows they hit the H1 nos badly. Since July prices have been on a tare- up.
At half time REA was deep in the doo-doo, losses of $29.5m (revs up) with av selling prices fob Samarinda of CPO $430 and $590 for CPKO. A negative currency swing of $16m didn't help.
Pretty certain CPO prices will stay around $670 level to year end and REA fob selling prices could be $100+ higher than H1.
If so we will still lose money but not as much unless the bod pull some rabbits out of hats.

Since wk 30 CPO prices have averaged c.$568 that's at a fair clip to wk
48, give or take a buck or two their on the money. So come year end H2 av cpo would be around that price. So can REA break even for H2? It sure would help.

Invstrs needed little pushing to trim stocks on weak US manufacturing data especially on new orders. The sector contracted for the 4th straight month not what investors wanted to hear. The Dow fell 268 (27783) the 500 off 27 to (3114) & the tech 97 to (8568).

Dec 2018 was a torrid month for US and UK equities. The Dow sank 2476, the S&P fell 274 and Nsdq slumped 746. At 2018 close the Dow was down 6% on the year, S&P 6%, Nsdq off 4% and R2 12%. In London the ftse ended down 12%, the
All 13%, 250 17% & Aim 18%. Currently the ftse is up 8.2% ytd.

Investors are wary the Dec 15 deadline for a further 15% tariff on China approaches. If he carries out his threat it would knock the stuffing out of Xmas mrkts. Trump has whacked duties on steel & aluminium from Brazil & Argentina. He continues to 'weaponise' Uncle Sams economic power by now threatening a 100% duty raise on $2.4bn of French goods (wine, cheese etc) in retaliation for taxing US tech companies.

Boeing fell $11 to ($355) propping up the laggards with Amex, Goldman and the big techs. Going up Coca Cola, Exxon and 'Big Mac'. The Energy sector benefited by WTI gaining 79c to $56.17.
The 10yr t/bill put on 75 basis to 1.835%
Several big name hedge fund managers have cautioned invstrs on sky high valuations and said the Dow could fall 'Big' if a Democrat (socialist) succeeds Trump to the Presidency. The managing partner of Virtus Capital says 'Big' is 50%! If he's anywhere near right that would take the Dow back to levels last seen in 2012/3.

In Asia stocks are mostly lower on global trade jitters and Trumps further duty rises on new fronts.
Little local news to drive mrkts the Nikkei closed down 150, HK off 62 and SH closed 8 better (2880). Other Pan Pacifics all down.

The nos:- Oil $61.03.
Gold $1467. Palm $683.
Vix 14.9. $1.294. €1.168.
BMPI 7156. FF+7. DF+37.
Morning all.

Another $4 rise in CPO today not that it means much to pis invstd in palm companies for the mrkt is more obsessed with the green lobby and associated hassle than Co's bottom lines.

A $20-30 CPO increase means little until companies confirm the benefits to the bottom line (if any) your guess as good as mine....
You know and I know hardly any of this will drop to the bottom line. Wait for the exceptionals and disappointing updates headed our way in Feb to confirm, this that and the other have dragged on profits or limited losses or we had to pay the cleaners a few extra bucks...you get the picture. Whatever the nos will inevitably disappoint.

I must say that without 'Evil Knievels' interest we'd probably still be wallowing at 120 ish bewailing the mrkts lack of interest.
That's a very jaundiced view on my part (so take no note) but one that has held me in good stead over the years, for companies sweep all sorts of nasties under the carpet on rises in their basic commodity prices. before results. There's always a 'cudda, shudda, wudda...but for Tom, Dick & Harry.

I trust I'm wrong but the update will confirm cont losses with an outlook that should herald increase valuations in nav but alas not in share prices. That's the way of the world these days....go ask O....lie investors who bank bucket loads of cash while the mrkt heads to Carey St to pick up the jetsom of disillusioned invstr hopes.
.
It pays to take a very critical view on mrkt valuations of Co stock prices these days. They rarely travel to the beat of your drums, by that I mean don't wait for the fundamentals to revert to fair value if your under water or lagging nav, you will die of exhaustion.
It might happen tomorrow or in 2030 or never.

In my epierience it will be a dogs brexit of "that'll be the day when share prices die" ...or that'll be the day when REA flies...the latter hopefully.

We dont need Comrades version of train nationalisation the Unions are doing a damn fine job of it now. Massive disruption to rail services this month will be par for the course when and if Labour ever carry out their crackpot ideas.
Tbh privatisation has not been an overwhelming success but if you think letting the Govt run it will improve running times, cut costs etc.., your in for a very rude surprise.